Saturday, October23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bay Port, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:58AMSunset 6:40PM Saturday October 23, 2021 4:50 PM EDT (20:50 UTC) Moonrise 7:16PMMoonset 9:56AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 335 Pm Edt Sat Oct 23 2021
Tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots. Cloudy with a chance of light showers. Waves 2 feet or less building to 3 to 5 feet in the late evening and overnight. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Monday..Northeast winds to 30 knots. Rain showers in the morning, then light showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 8 to 12 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ421 Expires:202110240900;;151748 FZUS53 KDTX 231935 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 335 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ421-240900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay Port, MI
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location: 43.93, -83.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 231856 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 256 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021

NEAR TERM. (Through Tonight) Issued at 256 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Upper-level low pressure and attendant surface reflection remain centered near James Bay this afternoon. Large scale troughing continues to extend across the Great lakes with seasonably cool air remaining in place as a result. When combined with above normal Great Lakes water temperatures, lake effect showers remain the rule, aided by a weak surface trough exiting the area.

Weak/subtle low-level warm air advection gradually takes over tonight as a storm system begins to take shape well to our west lee of the Rockies. None the less, thermodynamic/moisture profiles will remain favorable for some semblance of lake effect convection to continue, most numerously across northern Chippewa County.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Additional shower potential tonight & temperature trends.

Shower activity continues to percolate primarily across eastern upper and south of M-72 in northern lower this afternoon . owing to a departing surface trough and ongoing lake processes. While inland activity is expected to diminish with time through the remainder of the day, the atmosphere largely remains favorable for lake effect processes to continue tonight with at least some pockets of decent synoptic support through the boundary layer and subsidence inversion heights near 4-5 kft. As was alluded to by the prior forecaster, wind fields remain problematic, especially off northern Lake Michigan as flow remains rather light while backing more westerly and eventually southwesterly with time as the night wears on. The exception lies across the traditional lake belts of eastern upper Michigan where flow remains much more organized out of the west- northwest off of Lake Superior. Expecting the most organized and persistent showers to encompass those locales across northern Chippewa County. As has been the case the last couple of nights, can't entirely rule out a few snowflakes mixing in across interior areas early Sunday morning as WBZ heights drop to just below 2 kft, but certainly not envisioning anything of high impact as temperatures largely remain above freezing in those locations that see precip.

Otherwise, low temperatures expected to range from the upper 20s to near 30 across downsloping locales of northeast lower that remain removed from more frequent lake induced clouds . to the mid-upper 30s elsewhere. Some low 40s remaining possible nearest the Great Lakes shorelines.

SHORT TERM. (Sunday through Tuesday) Issued at 256 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021

. Drying out for most Sunday, showers to the south .

High Impact Weather Potential . Minimal.

Pattern/Synopsis . Heading into the latter half of the weekend the persistent upper level cutoff finally begins to fill in and pull off to the east, and the flow across Michigan becomes briefly more zonal. Meanwhile a shortwave treks straight east from the central Plains into the Ohio Valley early through the week . absorbing a piece of energy from the cutoff . resulting in troughing that shifts into the lower Great Lakes by Tuesday. At the surface a cyclone treks out of the central Plains Sunday toward the southern Michigan border by Monday night. This keeps shower chances going, mainly for our south into early week.

Forecast/Details . On Sunday morning we'll still have lingering overlake instability and some synoptic moisture pooling around a rapidly weakening surface low dropping out of southern Ontario. Chances are best in ern Upper with the best low to mid-level moisture. Dynamic lift ahead of the southward-dropping shortwave will also help sustain showers . then synoptic moisture and lift quickly shift east through midday . and we'll be in a relatively dry corridor across Nrn Michigan between this moisture exiting off to the northeast, and a noticeably moist airmass moving in from the south . (anomalously high PWAT's up to or above an inch) ahead of the surface low moving into the Ohio Valley. This rich moisture will get up to our southern border, with precip chances mainly along and south of M-55. As the low moves a little closer and wrap around moisture pivots across nrn Lower, we'll have rain chances right on through Monday for areas along and south of M-32. On Tuesday we start to quiet back down, with precip chances diminishing as high pressure starts to nudge into the area.

Winds ramp up out of the northeast Sunday evening and remain gusty through Monday with highest gusts up to between 25 and 30mph. Afternoon highs will remain within the upper 40's to low 50's for most areas which is right around normal for this time of year. We drop into the mid 30's (slightly warmer along the coasts) Sunday night for most of northern Lower. Eastern Upper may get colder with clouds clearing out from the north.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 256 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021

High Impact Weather Potential . Minimal

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast . Heading into midweek we'll have shortwave ridging moving into the Great Lakes . sandwiched between an upper level low departing New England and troughing moving into the Plains. This will lead to a dry stretch with high's trying to moderate back into the 50's. The warmest day has consistently been pushed a little later, with Thursday now possibly being the mildest day with afternoon highs in the mid and upper 50's. Additional precip chances heading into late week as another upper level low consolidates over the Ohio Valley. Some guidance is still suggesting a strong (990mb) surface low moving into the Ohio Valley during the Thursday timeframe, but placement and track have discrepancies still . with some guidance (Euro) backing off drastically on the strength and shifting the low further south. The end of the week heading into the weekend are currently progged to remain in the low 50's but highs may have to be knocked down in the future depending on tracks of individual surface lows.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 120 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021

Relatively high based lake induced clouds continue across much of the area through the TAF period. May continue to see light showers impact the western terminals, primarily TVC and mbL at times today and eventually PLN later this evening into tonight. Light winds expected to continue through the period.

MARINE. Issued at 256 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021

Scattered lake effect rain showers are expected to continue at times through Sunday morning, along with a low chance of an isolated non- tornadic waterspout. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient is expected to aid in continuing sub-advisory winds/waves tonight through Sunday, despite ample over-water instability. As a storm system begins to approach the Great Lakes region from the southwest Sunday night, east-northeast winds are expected to be on the increase into Monday. SCA conditions are looking likely through this Sunday night to Monday time frame, at least on some of the nearshore waters of northern Michigan.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . MG SHORT TERM . STJ LONG TERM . STJ AVIATION . MG MARINE . MG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 8 mi70 min SSW 8G11 47°F 1015.6 hPa
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 17 mi50 min W 4.1G4.1 46°F 1015.2 hPa (-0.7)
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 22 mi70 min SSW 5.1G8.9 54°F 1015.6 hPa
KP58 34 mi55 min WNW 5.1 50°F 1015.3 hPa43°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 43 mi56 min W 2.9G8 49°F 57°F1014.2 hPa36°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI26 mi55 minWSW 510.00 miOvercast47°F40°F75%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBAX

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW400000000000000000W3W300W3W4
1 day agoN12N12
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2 days agoW6SW4W4SE60SE500000S30SE4SE7S6S6S10SW10W11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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