Wednesday, October20, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Reed City, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:58AMSunset 6:48PM Wednesday October 20, 2021 8:15 AM EDT (12:15 UTC) Moonrise 6:08PMMoonset 6:53AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 805 Am Edt Wed Oct 20 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday morning through late Thursday night...
Today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots backing southeast late in the day. Sunny until midday, then mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots veering southwest toward daybreak. Rain showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet toward daybreak.
Thursday..North winds to 30 knots. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 7 to 11 feet.
Thursday night..North winds 15 to 25 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots toward daybreak. Mostly cloudy. Waves 6 to 8 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet toward daybreak.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ849 Expires:202110202000;;979126 FZUS53 KGRR 201205 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 805 AM EDT Wed Oct 20 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-202000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Reed City, MI
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location: 43.93, -85.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 201157 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 757 AM EDT Wed Oct 20 2021

LATEST UPDATE . Aviation

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 328 AM EDT Wed Oct 20 2021

-Showers and storms late Wednesday into Thursday

-Cooler Weather Friday through most of the weekend

-Chance for significant precipitation mid next week

DISCUSSION. (Today through next Tuesday) Issued at 328 AM EDT Wed Oct 20 2021

--Showers and storms late Wednesday into Thursday --

Today begins with a crisp clear autumn morning due to strong overnight radiational cooling. However, overnight lows as well as todays high temperatures, will be above normal. The above normal temperatures will be aided by warm southwesterly flow in the mid- levels, along with moist flow ahead of any approaching Low pressure system. The latest NAFES ensembles are showing mean temperatures anomalies are +2 sigma, indicating a slightly anomalous signal.

Ahead of the approaching system will be a weak LLJ at about 35kts at 2kft. While not necessarily strong, it should provide enough low level mixing coupled with the unseasonably warm air for afternoon showers and storms. One of the limiting factors will be the timing as this system will reach the region late in the day with the strongest PWATS moving through northern Michigan and arriving well after sunset. So while storms are possible, they will tend to be scattered through southwest Michigan and will lack organization and will not be severe. Showers are likely, but as stated above, the strongest moisture will be to the north so flooding is not a concern, especially with the speed that these showers/storms will be moving.

Showers and storms will move through northeast overnight Wednesday into Thursday and as they move through central into eastern Michigan, the mid to near range models show the overnight convection organizing into a cohesive line towards Thursday morning. While this will mainly effect the eastern half of the state, any line of showers and storms that form could affect the US 127 corridor including Lansing and Jackson. As stated above, none of this is expected to become severe.

--Cooler Weather Friday through most of the weekend

As the mid to upper level low traverses the Great Lakes, it will be pulled into a larger upper level trough extending from around Hudson Bay through the Midwest. Strong northerly flow will drop a cold front across Michigan Thursday evening into Friday morning. The mid range models are in decent agreement that colder air, 0C to -2C at 850mb, will advect into the area by 12Z Friday morning. The strong northerly flow along with gusty winds will allow for a blustery day on Friday.

The coldest temperatures in this period will be Saturday morning with patchy frost possible so if you have any vegetation left it would be a good idea to protect it. There are some outlining models along US 10 that have the potential for snow flurries. However, given the lack of moisture it is unlikely and if it does occur will not amount to anything.

The colder air mass will linger over the state into Sunday before the northwesterly flow shifts to the east Sunday afternoon as the upper level trough gives wave to another system move in from the central US. That will moderate temperatures and bring warmer air into the region late Sunday into the upcoming work week. The model solutions begin to diverge as the GFS has a better chance of precipitation Sunday. However the EC has the strong, dry easterly flow mainly fending off any approaching precipitation. So while precipitation is possible Sunday into Monday, it will be inhibited into coming into a drier air mass and will have contend with dry air advecting into it. The best chance for precipitation Sunday into Monday will be along the I-94 corridor

--Chance for significant precipitation mid next week --

Strong, divergent upper level flow will move any precipitation to the northeast Monday morning with northwesterly flow once again taking the stage into Tuesday. A weak upper level ridge will move over the area before a deepening low wave trough develops in the Midwest as traverses the Great Lakes states Wednesday into Thursday. There is some signal for decent QPF though the best PWATS are to the north of the region.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 757 AM EDT Wed Oct 20 2021

Isolated showers/storms passing just north of the southern Lwr MI TAF sites early this morning, otherwise VFR cigs at or above 8K ft passing through today. Main focus is the more widespread tstm potential for tonight which now looks high enough to include in the TAFs. The main time frame of concern is between 05Z and 09Z, give or take a couple hours on either side. Locally heavy rainfall from overnight storms may cause periods of reduced vsbys, and some small hail is also possible. Conditions trending toward primarily MVFR by 12Z Thursday as lower cigs filter in behind the departing sct'd tstms.

MARINE. Issued at 328 AM EDT Wed Oct 20 2021

Winds and waves will be light today, though they will increase as the day continues. Strong northwesterly flow is expected tomorrow with winds increasing to at least advisory though if the strong flow intensifies on Thursday it could flirt with Gale criteria.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Thursday to 5 AM EDT Friday for LMZ848-849.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Friday for LMZ844>847.



SYNOPSIS . Ceru DISCUSSION . Ceru AVIATION . Meade MARINE . Ceru


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 51 mi46 min SSW 5.1G9.9 62°F 53°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 56 mi36 min SSW 9.9G13 61°F 1017.6 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Big Rapids, Roben-Hood Airport, MI15 mi21 minSSW 85.00 miLight Rain49°F49°F100%1017.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRQB

Wind History from RQB (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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