Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sparta, WI
May 31, 2024 7:41 AM CDT (12:41 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:23 AM Sunset 8:41 PM Moonrise 1:13 AM Moonset 12:53 PM |
FXUS63 KARX 311048 AFDARX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 548 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers and a few thunderstorms later today could produce 1-3" of rain along a corridor running from roughly Albert Lea to Eau Claire. Rainfall risk lessens as one travels further east.
- Potential for stronger storms early Monday morning and again Tuesday evening. Details of these systems are still being hashed out.
- Near seasonal temperatures through the 7 day forecast with the warmest days in the lower 80s for early next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024
Today/Tonight: Rainfall Details
A weak surface cold front stretched from the Lake of the Woods region SSW to near Sioux Falls and is gradually acquiring an increasing positive tilt as the parent upper level shortwave energy lifts northward into Canada. The front continues to pivot along the southern axis point over the course of the day and lays out along a line from the Siouxland region to west- central Wisconsin by this afternoon. The warm sector ahead of this front is quite narrow owing to a sharp upstream ridge axis centered over eastern Wisconsin keeping a drier southeasterly fetch in place up across the MN/WI border region.
Weak 300-310K isentropic ascent just ahead of this front has kept a band of semi-discrete convection ongoing through the night, but with only weak moisture transport within the warm sector and MUCAPE values of < 500 J/kg, the convection has been gradually decaying through the night as evident by the warming cloud tops and consolidation of higher reflectivity values on radar. As the front lays out and the flow becomes more parallel to the isobars, the convection is expected to weaken further and have reflected this in the precipitation forecast with a lower of PoPs through the morning along this axis.
Increasing theta-e advection over the frontal surface commences this afternoon as a second shortwave impinges from the northwest. This will fuel reinvigorated convective development along this boundary through the afternoon and evening with training cells propagating northeastward along the front. There has been a fairly consistent signal in the HRRR that a 10 to 20 mile wide corridor of 1 to 3 inches of rain will fall during this period--the big question has been where that band will set up. The latest 31.00/06Z members are favoring an SW to NE axis roughly from Albert Lea to Eau Claire, with the guidance spread by up to a county on either side of this line.
Despite this favorable synoptic setup, deeper moisture will be confined well south of the region with PWATs only pushing around 1.5 inches and 925-700-mb mixing ratios topping out at 6-8g/kg.
Thus, this increasing lift along the boundary will only be able to realize the limited moisture which has pooled in the immediate vicinity ahead of the front. The potential rainfall amounts from the HRRR are not extraordinary for this time of year, but may lead to localized flooding in areas of poor drainage.
Saturday and Sunday: Occasional Showers
The surface flow pattern becomes weak for Saturday as low to mid-tropospheric shortwave ridging builds in for the day. A residual 925-700-mb theta-e gradient should still exist across the forecast area, serving as the focus for weak pulse showers and thunderstorms during the day. Moving into Sunday, decaying convection from the previous night out in the Dakotas may sneak into the region during the morning, but more likely than not we will see dry conditions during the day with increasing warm air advection and capping strengthening during this timeframe.
Highs push into the lower 80s as the southerly flow strengthens.
Monday and Tuesday: Two Rounds of Stronger Storms
A zonal flow pattern that sets in on Sunday ushers two shortwaves in quick succession for the first half of the new week. Convective initiation with the first wave takes place well upstream in the central and eastern Dakotas Sunday afternoon, growing upscale into an MCS Sunday night over central or southern Minnesota. Medium range solutions have slowed the arrival time of this system and it now looks to reach our region after midnight on Monday morning. We look to reside on the far eastern side of the warm sector (MUCAPE values of less than 1000 J/kg) and indications are that this complex will be undergoing a weakening trend when it arrives. Cannot fully rule out some stronger winds given the expected storm mode, but the severe threat looks to stay mainly to the west.
A second shortwave amplifies as it races along the U.S./Canadian border Monday night into Tuesday within a 120-kt jet streak. This system possesses better kinematics compared to the first shortwave with an open Gulf warm sector of 65+ degree dewpoints that can be easily advected northward. There remain modest differences in the medium range solutions as to the characteristics/timing of the wave given that the vort lobe is still over the data-sparse western Aleutians. This spread should narrow as we go through the weekend and the system becomes better sampled, but this complex for Tuesday afternoon/evening looks to be our main focus for severe weather potential for this forecast period.
Mid to Late Week: Quieter Weather
The evolution of the weather pattern for the latter half of the week remains in a state of flux depending on the degree of amplification with our midweek shortwave. A slower and deeper trough would result in the risk for showers to linger through the end of the week under the upper low, whereas the more progressive solutions usher in upper level ridging faster and dry out the forecast after Wednesday. Either way, temperatures will cool to some degree under such a pattern, with highs either in the 60s or 70s--the warmer temperatures tied to the more progressive solutions.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 545 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024
Predominantly VFR conditions are expected for today, though there is an increasing risk for localized visibility restrictions through the day as showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage west of an OLZ to ISW line. These showers spread eastward overnight with ceilings lowering to high MVFR/low VFR levels towards sunrise on Saturday. Winds will be from the south around 5-15 kt, but could have localized speed and direction variability around any storms.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 548 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers and a few thunderstorms later today could produce 1-3" of rain along a corridor running from roughly Albert Lea to Eau Claire. Rainfall risk lessens as one travels further east.
- Potential for stronger storms early Monday morning and again Tuesday evening. Details of these systems are still being hashed out.
- Near seasonal temperatures through the 7 day forecast with the warmest days in the lower 80s for early next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024
Today/Tonight: Rainfall Details
A weak surface cold front stretched from the Lake of the Woods region SSW to near Sioux Falls and is gradually acquiring an increasing positive tilt as the parent upper level shortwave energy lifts northward into Canada. The front continues to pivot along the southern axis point over the course of the day and lays out along a line from the Siouxland region to west- central Wisconsin by this afternoon. The warm sector ahead of this front is quite narrow owing to a sharp upstream ridge axis centered over eastern Wisconsin keeping a drier southeasterly fetch in place up across the MN/WI border region.
Weak 300-310K isentropic ascent just ahead of this front has kept a band of semi-discrete convection ongoing through the night, but with only weak moisture transport within the warm sector and MUCAPE values of < 500 J/kg, the convection has been gradually decaying through the night as evident by the warming cloud tops and consolidation of higher reflectivity values on radar. As the front lays out and the flow becomes more parallel to the isobars, the convection is expected to weaken further and have reflected this in the precipitation forecast with a lower of PoPs through the morning along this axis.
Increasing theta-e advection over the frontal surface commences this afternoon as a second shortwave impinges from the northwest. This will fuel reinvigorated convective development along this boundary through the afternoon and evening with training cells propagating northeastward along the front. There has been a fairly consistent signal in the HRRR that a 10 to 20 mile wide corridor of 1 to 3 inches of rain will fall during this period--the big question has been where that band will set up. The latest 31.00/06Z members are favoring an SW to NE axis roughly from Albert Lea to Eau Claire, with the guidance spread by up to a county on either side of this line.
Despite this favorable synoptic setup, deeper moisture will be confined well south of the region with PWATs only pushing around 1.5 inches and 925-700-mb mixing ratios topping out at 6-8g/kg.
Thus, this increasing lift along the boundary will only be able to realize the limited moisture which has pooled in the immediate vicinity ahead of the front. The potential rainfall amounts from the HRRR are not extraordinary for this time of year, but may lead to localized flooding in areas of poor drainage.
Saturday and Sunday: Occasional Showers
The surface flow pattern becomes weak for Saturday as low to mid-tropospheric shortwave ridging builds in for the day. A residual 925-700-mb theta-e gradient should still exist across the forecast area, serving as the focus for weak pulse showers and thunderstorms during the day. Moving into Sunday, decaying convection from the previous night out in the Dakotas may sneak into the region during the morning, but more likely than not we will see dry conditions during the day with increasing warm air advection and capping strengthening during this timeframe.
Highs push into the lower 80s as the southerly flow strengthens.
Monday and Tuesday: Two Rounds of Stronger Storms
A zonal flow pattern that sets in on Sunday ushers two shortwaves in quick succession for the first half of the new week. Convective initiation with the first wave takes place well upstream in the central and eastern Dakotas Sunday afternoon, growing upscale into an MCS Sunday night over central or southern Minnesota. Medium range solutions have slowed the arrival time of this system and it now looks to reach our region after midnight on Monday morning. We look to reside on the far eastern side of the warm sector (MUCAPE values of less than 1000 J/kg) and indications are that this complex will be undergoing a weakening trend when it arrives. Cannot fully rule out some stronger winds given the expected storm mode, but the severe threat looks to stay mainly to the west.
A second shortwave amplifies as it races along the U.S./Canadian border Monday night into Tuesday within a 120-kt jet streak. This system possesses better kinematics compared to the first shortwave with an open Gulf warm sector of 65+ degree dewpoints that can be easily advected northward. There remain modest differences in the medium range solutions as to the characteristics/timing of the wave given that the vort lobe is still over the data-sparse western Aleutians. This spread should narrow as we go through the weekend and the system becomes better sampled, but this complex for Tuesday afternoon/evening looks to be our main focus for severe weather potential for this forecast period.
Mid to Late Week: Quieter Weather
The evolution of the weather pattern for the latter half of the week remains in a state of flux depending on the degree of amplification with our midweek shortwave. A slower and deeper trough would result in the risk for showers to linger through the end of the week under the upper low, whereas the more progressive solutions usher in upper level ridging faster and dry out the forecast after Wednesday. Either way, temperatures will cool to some degree under such a pattern, with highs either in the 60s or 70s--the warmer temperatures tied to the more progressive solutions.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 545 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024
Predominantly VFR conditions are expected for today, though there is an increasing risk for localized visibility restrictions through the day as showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage west of an OLZ to ISW line. These showers spread eastward overnight with ceilings lowering to high MVFR/low VFR levels towards sunrise on Saturday. Winds will be from the south around 5-15 kt, but could have localized speed and direction variability around any storms.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KCMY SPARTA/FORT MC COY,WI | 4 sm | 46 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 55°F | 45°F | 67% | 30.15 | |
| KBCK BLACK RIVER FALLS AREA,WI | 22 sm | 26 min | calm | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 54°F | 46°F | 77% | 30.17 | |
| KLSE LA CROSSE RGNL,WI | 24 sm | 48 min | SSE 10 | 10 sm | Clear | 61°F | 37°F | 42% | 30.15 |
La Crosse, WI,
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