Sunrise 6:28 AM   Sunset 8:37 PM Moonrise 12:57 AM   Moonset 9:08 AM

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LHZ441 Port Austin To Harbor Beach Mi- 359 Am Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
.dense fog advisory in effect until 2 pm edt this afternoon - ..small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon - .
Today - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Areas of dense fog. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and early morning, then becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Tuesday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Tuesday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the east in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 290957 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 557 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and scattered thunderstorms today, some of which may become strong.

- Dry and slightly cooler Tuesday.

- Well above normal temperatures remain through the week.

AVIATION

Cool and moist northeast flow on the north side of a stalled frontal boundary maintains LIFR conditions through the morning hours for the northern TAF site (FNT and mbS). Meanwhile, ceilings will be much slower to lower (and higher-based) across the remaining sites as renewed southwest flow ensures warmer and somewhat drier low-level environments ahead of the next trough axis as ceilings remain VFR. A line of showers and storms moves in this afternoon between 17Z and 22Z moving from west to east. Standard vsby/cig reductions expected, generally MVFR, then less confidence exists in additional precipitation opportunities through the evening and early night time- frame. Signal exists for some MVFR (and to some degree IFR) stratus early Tuesday morning as the cold front works through Southeast Michigan.

For DTW/D21 Convection...AA scattered to broken line of showers and thunderstorms traverses the airspace from west to east this afternoon, most likely from 19-22Z. Low confidence in the coverage, duration, and intensity of any trailing convective activity afterwards this evening and early tonight. Any thunder during the later period will more likely occur north of DTW/D21.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Moderate in thunderstorms this afternoon, then low this evening.

* Low in ceilings at or below 5000 feet this morning, then moderate this afternoon and early Tuesday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 404 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

DISCUSSION...

West to east stationary boundary resides across the M-59 corridor this morning along with a very moist airmass. Dewpoints across much of southeast Michigan are into the 50s. North of this boundary are much cooler temperatures, which is supporting areas of patchy fog along and north of the I-69 corridor. Flow should be just strong enough to limit dense fog development with the isolated lower visibility in the half mile to three quarter mile range. A few isolated to scattered showers have moved northeast across the forecast area and have cleared to the north at press time.

Southeast Michigan should remain mostly rain shower free through the morning with the exception of a few scattered showers streaming across the Tri-Cities. To the west will be a nearly stacked low pressure system lifting across the western Great Lakes states and eventually into Ontario by tomorrow morning. Downstream will be increasing south-southwest flow starting to pick up around 12Z with gusts to 20-25 knots during the afternoon. Winds will drive the stalled boundary northward before the morning ends, which will also help improve visibilities after sunrise. Greater large scale ascent and height falls arrive today ahead of an advancing cold front. The lead wave of activity ahead of the cold front associated with a developing surface wave moving our of Illinois will move through mainly between 12 pm to 5 pm. The favorable diurnal timing will allow for the very moist airmass to destabilize helped by some breaks in clouds ahead of activity. MLCAPE up 250-500 J/kg looks achievable with the RAP offering MLCAPEs approaching 800 J/kg. The 30-40 knot 850 mb LLJ will be well positioned over southeast Michigan during the afternoon yielding 0-6 km bulk shear values to 35-45 knots. This environment would support at least some potential for isolated thunderstorms approaching severe levels. One of the limiting factors for robust convection today will be the meager mid level lapse rates at around 5.5 C/km. One area of interest to keep an eye on during the afternoon will be across the Tri-Cities and northern Thumb if the frontal boundary hangs around here. This would lead to a more southeasterly surface wind increasing low level shear as activity arrives and could lead to better thunderstorm organization for a 2-4 hour period.

Will maintain PoPs through the evening and overnight period as the main cold front moves through supporting mainly scattered showers.
Dry air is eventually ushered in under west winds bringing an end to precipitation shortly before 8 am tomorrow morning across eastern portions of the CWA The cooler airmass for Tuesday will yield daytime highs in the upper 60s to low 70s aside from some cooler spots along the Thumb lakeshores. Mostly clear skies will help temperatures fall into the 40s for tonight.

Some uncertainty in the mid-week, but the outgoing forecast is currently dry for Wednesday as a broad trough gets hung up over the northern US Rockies and northern plains. The northern jet turns more poleward and bring upper level diffluence over the region as deep south-southwest flow ushers in higher moisture back into Michigan.
This brings the next appreciable chance for precipitation in the Thursday to Friday time frame. High confidence exists in the mid to late week for above normal temperatures with daytime highs generally in the 70s and overnight lows in the 50s.

MARINE...

A low pressure system will continue to push northeast from southern Minnesota, settling over western Lake Superior by tonight. This will push the stalled frontal boundary across central Michigan north into the northern Great Lakes. Widespread rain showers and possibly a rumble of thunder is expected along and north of this front, across central and northern Lake Huron. Additionally, the position of the low will also reinforce northeast flow across the Great Lakes through tomorrow morning, with wind direction veering to the southeast by the afternoon. This will help maintain elevated wave heights across the outer Saginaw Bay to Harbor Beach, where Small Craft Advisories are in effect.

A very shallow mixing layer has developed over north to north- central Lake Huron, which will produce localized higher wind gusts now until 18Z. Gusts around 30 to 35 knots will be likely over the open waters from Mackinac Bridge to Sturgeon Point. Will preclude the issuance of a Gale Warning as confidence remains low whether gale potential will persist in any given three hour window, especially considering the stability of the marine layer. However, sporadic gusts to gales are likely through the morning and early afternoon hours. A short fused Gale Warning cannot be ruled out if early observational trends support it.

Otherwise, shower and storm potential will increase for all locations during the afternoon and evening, ahead of a cold front.
Any strong thunderstorm development will have the potential to produce isolated gusts to or above 30 knots.

HYDROLOGY...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of and along a cold front today. Additional rainfall amounts averaging a quarter inch to a half inch is expected today. The higher isolated totals up to a half inch or slightly more will be reserved for any more organized thunderstorms and favored more towards the Tri-Cities and Thumb region. No major flood concerns are expected through today.
Precipitation will come to an end by around 8 am tomorrow.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ421-441.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for LHZ422.

Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ441>443- 462>464.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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