Thursday, September23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Brownville, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 7:00PM Thursday September 23, 2021 2:30 PM EDT (18:30 UTC) Moonrise 7:26PMMoonset 8:25AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 613 Am Edt Thu Sep 23 2021
Today..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers early, then rain from late morning on. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Rain in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. A chance of waterspouts in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 5 to 15 knots. A chance of waterspouts. A chance of showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of waterspouts Saturday night. A chance of showers Saturday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. A chance of waterspouts. A chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Monday..West winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of waterspouts during the day. A chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
LOZ045 Expires:202109231515;;049164 FZUS51 KBUF 231013 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 613 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ045-231515-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brownville, NY
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location: 43.95, -76     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 231824 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 224 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will slowly move from west to east across the area, with the steadiest and heaviest rain reaching the Eastern Lake Ontario region this afternoon and evening. Cooler and drier weather will return for most areas on Friday, except northeast of Lake Erie where some lake effect rain showers will be possible. Another cold front will then bring a chance of more showers on Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. A closed off sfc-mid level low near Detroit will move northward across Lake Huron into this evening. Meanwhile, a cold front over the Genesee valley will continue to move east into this evening. Strong moisture transport and dynamics in form of upper diffluence ahead of the system will support a swath of moderate to heavy rain along the slowly advancing cold front. Thus far, hourly rainfall rates have mainly been up to 0.25 inch/hr with isolated pockets around 0.40 inch/hr over the Finger Lakes. Heavier rain moves into eastern Lake Ontario region this afternoon into this evening with 12hr totals in those areas from 18z today through 06z tonight likely topping out at 1.25 to 1.75 inches. Overall the amount of rain from the Genesee valley to the North Country will continue to support rises in smaller creeks and rivers, and some ponding on roadways but is unlikely to produce widespread flooding. Thus far the only main stem, larger river, that is showing more significant rises, above bankfull as of late this morning, is Genesee River at Wellsville.

Otherwise, dry slot in wake of the cold front has already resulted in some partial sunshine over western NY but temps here will stay in the upper 50s western Southern Tier to the mid 60s. Mid 60s at best in the recovering airmass once the rain ends over Genesee valley as well. Farther east, temps that still could rise into the mid or even upper 70s east of Lake Ontario will fall off into the lower 60s late afternoon into the evening as the cold front moves through.

Steady rain will exit east of Lewis County shortly after midnight tonight which will leave the vast majority of the area rain-free. The exception is the Niagara Frontier where some lake effect rain showers are likely late tonight. Persistent winds will limit radiational cooling, especially across the Niagara Frontier where winds will gust to 30 mph near the lakeshores. Even with limited radiational cooling, the cooler air mass will support low temperatures from the mid 40s to lower 50s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Friday Night an opening upper level low will be advancing across James Bay, taking a plume of moisture with it. This moisture, combined with initial 850 hPa temperatures of +4 to +5C will generate lake effect rain showers through the Saint Lawrence Valley. Lake effect will be quick to end with warming in the mid levels and ambient moisture decreasing.

Thereafter the remainder of the night will be dry with subtle ridging of high pressure passing across our region, as well as our region lying between two moisture plumes. It will be cool Friday night with interior regions dropping down into the lower 40s.

The next upper level low continues to have a spread among the operational model solutions, with how far south it drops across the Great lakes region, as well as begin and end time of when it closes off from the main flow. This results in timing issues for synoptic rain showers, as well as placement of lake effect rain bands within the cool airmass aloft. Rain showers ahead of a cold front will likely push into WNY through the afternoon hours of Saturday, with the area of rain transitioning to more lake effect Saturday Night east of both lakes as temperatures at 850 hPa drop down to +4 to +6C.

Will then have chance PoPs Sunday and Sunday Night with the upper level low nearby . though placement of this feature is still with a fair amount of uncertainty. Greatest certainty for rain showers will be east of the lakes (lake effect rain/upslope) with a lower probability for showers across the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes region. It will be cooler on Sunday with highs only in the low to mid 60s . which are a degree or two below normal.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. By Monday . the medium range guidance diverges significantly with respect to the placement of surface synoptic features and the low-level thermal structure of the airmass across our region . so for that time frame have reverted to more broadbrush slight chance PoPs.

Looking further out into next week . a general amplifying upper level trough is favored to persist over the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast . though the various guidance packages also unsurprisingly show some disagreement on exactly how amplified the trough will get and the placement of its axis . with the 00z GEM/ECMWF both deeper and further west than the GFS This said. all three suggest at least some potential for an Alberta Clipper-like system to slide southeastward through the larger-scale trough and potentially bring some showers to our region Monday night and/or Tuesday . with lake effect and/or lake-enhanced showers also appearing possible downwind of the lakes given the seasonably cool cyclonic flow that should be in place. With this in mind . have indicated a general mix of slight chance to low chance PoPs to cover this.

Otherwise temperatures will range from near to a little below average throughout this period . with daily highs mostly in the 60s and nightly lows ranging from the mid 40s to lower 50s.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. A band of moderate to heavy rain will shift from the Genesee valley to east of Lake Ontario (including KART) this afternoon through this evening. In general expect mainly VFR CIGS during the rain, with an occasional drop to MVFR VSBY during heavier rain. Higher terrain east of Lake Ontario with upslope flow could even see IFR VSBY at times, but that would be brief.

Where rain has ended (western NY sites) or will end shortly (KROC), expect VFR CIGS through the afternoon through a bit of lower-level moisture rotating in from the southwest behind the cold front could result in brief MVFR CIGS. Best chance of longer lived MVFR CIGS will be over higher terrain of Southern Tier, including KJHW.

Mainly VFR later tonight, outside of lake effect rain showers NNE of Lake Erie which may clip KIAG and MVFR stratus across the Southern Tier.

Outlook .

Friday . Mainly VFR, except MVFR possible in lake effect rain showers across the North Country and Niagara Frontier. Saturday and Sunday . MVFR/VFR with a chance of showers. Monday . VFR.

MARINE. Brisk S-SE flow today will direct the highest waves offshore and across Canadian waters even though winds will run 15 to 20 knots at times. Winds will shift to the SSW behind the cold front and eventually to the SW. Cooler temperatures behind the front will allow for better mixing, so hedge above model guidance for winds behind the front late today and tonight. Winds and waves likely to support SCA headlines tonight and Friday for Lake Erie and the Upper Niagara River. Small craft headlines may also be needed for the eastern waters of Lake Ontario. Winds will diminish Friday night when a high pressure ridge nudges closer to the waters.

There's a limited risk for waterspouts Friday and Friday night. Winds will be a bit on the strong side Friday, then once winds diminish and allow better land breeze convergence the moisture will be limited.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for LEZ020.



SYNOPSIS . Apffel NEAR TERM . Apffel/JLA SHORT TERM . Thomas LONG TERM . JM/JJR AVIATION . Apffel/JLA MARINE . Apffel


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 27 mi42 min 73°F1008.5 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 43 mi42 min S 8.9 G 12 64°F 1008.5 hPa63°F
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 48 mi30 min WSW 16 G 18 64°F 68°F3 ft1007.9 hPa (-1.4)
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 58 mi42 min 71°F 69°F1008.9 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 97 mi30 min E 6 G 6 63°F 1009.5 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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SE6
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SE6
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SE7
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G25
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G28
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S16
G24
S11
G18
S20
G29

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY4 mi34 minESE 39.00 miLight Rain72°F66°F82%1007.9 hPa
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY15 mi34 minSE 12 G 2510.00 miLight Rain72°F65°F77%1008.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KART

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
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SE5SE8SE75SE7SE6E5E3
1 day agoS10
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S5S5S5S5S6S7S8S9S8
G17
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6S7S5Calm4S4S7
G15
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2 days agoS8S5S5SE3E3E3E5SE5S6S6S10
G16
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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