Tuesday, November30, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Florence, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 4:44PM Tuesday November 30, 2021 5:32 PM PST (01:32 UTC) Moonrise 2:49AMMoonset 2:41PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ255 Coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or From 10 To 60 Nm- 252 Pm Pst Tue Nov 30 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night...
Tonight..S wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves S 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 9 ft at 12 seconds. Patchy fog.
Wed..W wind 5 to 10 kt. Gusts to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves W 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 10 ft at 12 seconds. Patchy morning fog.
Wed night..N wind 5 to 10 kt, rising to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 10 ft at 13 seconds.
Thu..N wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, rising to 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves N 4 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 10 ft at 13 seconds.
Thu night..NE wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, easing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves ne 5 ft at 7 seconds. W swell 9 ft at 13 seconds.
Fri..NE wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. W swell 10 ft.
Fri night..S wind 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. NW swell 11 ft.
Sat..N wind 10 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. NW swell 8 ft.
Sun..E wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. NW swell 5 ft.
PZZ200 252 Pm Pst Tue Nov 30 2021
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A brief break from winds on Wednesday as high pressure builds well offshore. Thursday will see a cold front cross the waters from north to south. Westerly swell will keep combined seas elevated for the next few days.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Florence, OR
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location: 44, -124.14     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 302220 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 219 PM PST Tue Nov 30 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will expand northward on Wednesday, before a weak cold front brings chances for light rain to northern zones Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Additional weak systems may clip the region with a few showers through the weekend, then a stronger frontal system from the Gulf of Alaska is expected to impact the region Sunday night into Monday.

SHORT TERM. This evening through Thursday night . A quasi-stationary warm front over southwest WA will gradually lift northward this evening through tonight while surface high pressure builds northward behind the front. This will set the stage for a calm night across northwest OR and southwest WA, which would initially suggest areas of fog and low stratus will develop. That said, the HREF ensemble mean for cloud cover shows a fairly strong signal for widespread high clouds over the region tonight. If this does occur, then fog development would be hindered due to limited radiational cooling. This scenario is what most guidance is currently suggesting. In reality, suspect some locations will see thin enough high clouds for at least some patchy fog to form in the lowlands (especially in the southern and northern Willamette Valley where the chance for breaks in cloud cover is highest). The outcome tonight will also significantly affect high temperatures tomorrow afternoon, making for a tricky forecast. If high clouds wind up thin enough for widespread fog to form tonight, then high temperatures would most likely top out in the lower 50s tomorrow since there will be very little boundary layer mixing to scour out fog. If widespread fog and/or low stratus does not form in the valley tonight, then high temperatures could easily wind up in the low to mid 60s. This is what the latest iteration of the NBM suggests, but decided to go closer to NAM/GFS/EURO MOS guidance which all depict highs in the upper 50s for the lowlands. Even this outcome would still be well above normal for the beginning of December. If the NBM temperature forecast pans out, then several record high temperatures would be tied or broken for the day.

A very weak cold front is set to clip southwest WA and far northwest OR Wednesday evening through Thursday morning, bringing increasing clouds and a 20 to 40 percent chance of light rain for locations to the north of Salem. This front will also bring relatively cooler temperatures on Thursday with highs in the low to mid 50s, which is still slightly above normal for early December. Skies should begin clearing behind the front Thursday evening/night while winds become light and variable. This should result in a chilly night compared to what we have been dealing with over the past week, with lows most likely falling into the 30s according to the NBM. Temperatures could drop below freezing for typical cool spots such as Battle Ground, Hillsboro, and Corvallis. Would not be surprised if patchy frost and/or patchy fog forms Thursday night. -TK

LONG TERM. Friday through Monday night . Models and their ensembles continue to suggest westerly flow aloft on Friday with surface high pressure. While it still looks like offshore flow may develop on Friday as the UWWRF suggests, the pressure gradient over the Columbia Gorge is now looking much weaker compared to yesterday's model guidance. In fact, it appears sustained east winds through the Gorge will now top out around 10-15 mph, without much wind at all for the rest of the forecast area. Overall, Friday looks to be a dry day with temperatures somewhere in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

500 mb heights should gradually rise this weekend as a ridge over the western United States becomes more amplified as suggested by the EURO and GFS ensemble means, potentially rising above 580 dm by late Sunday. The WPC's cluster analysis is also showing a strong signal for ridging over the region this weekend. This should result in slightly warmer and drier than normal conditions. That said, the deterministic EURO/GFS are both showing a weak closed surface low moving into the forecast area on Saturday, bringing a chance of rain for locations north of Eugene. The exact strength and track of this low remains quite uncertain, and Saturday could wind up mainly dry if the low tracks far enough to the north. The EMC's GEFS plumes for QPF at Astoria, Portland, and Salem show many ensemble members that produce no QPF at all on Saturday. In fact, there are considerably more ensemble members producing no QPF at all than members that do produce light QPF amounts. Therefore, current messaging for Saturday is only a slight chance of rain, which is also what the NBM suggests. Chances for rain are highest over southwest Washington and the far north OR coast.

After what looks to be a dry Sunday with above normal temperatures, conditions will begin to change quite a bit early next week. Models and their ensembles now suggest widespread rain is likely across the entire forecast area Sunday night through Monday as an upper level trough and potential closed surface low push into the Pacific Northwest. While confidence is high there will be widespread rain, confidence is very low in regards to how much rain. There is still a very large amount of model spread for QPF, anywhere from a few hundredths of rain to several inches according to the GEFS. After analyzing WPC's 500 mb EOF patterns for Monday, it appears much of the model variance can be explained by uncertainty regarding the amplitude of the upper trough that is set to move in with or just behind the surface low. -TK

AVIATION. 00Z TAF preliminary thoughts: As generally expected, the low clouds from this morning continued to lift and dissipate with mostly VFR conds across the area as of 30/22Z. Mid level clouds will dissipate this evening leaving variable high clouds. Feel these high clouds will be thin enough which will allow low stratus and possibly fog to develop most areas. If fog should occur, it seems most favored for the usual suspects (KONP, KHIO, and KEUG). KPDX and KTTD may escape the low cloud threat entirely as very weak easterly outflow from the Gorge may keep low levels mixed well enough to prevent development. Do expect whatever does develop will take until 01/20-22Z to lift back toward MVFR conds.

For detailed regional Pac NW aviation weather information, go online to: https://weather.gov/zse

KPDX AND APPROACHES . Aside from an initial threat of 020 cigs mentioned above, expect VFR conds through the evening. Visual approach rates may be limited from a FL020 cig beginning 08Z/midnight local and lasting until shortly after sunrise. /JBonk

MARINE. Very little change needed for the afternoon forecast package. Observed winds and seas appear to be holding fairly close to the forecast with satellite derived winds across the northern waters hinting at gusts around 25 kt and the central waters holding at 20 kt or less. Seas are running a couple feet higher and close to 11 ft for the far northern waters as extrapolated from the OOI buoy 46100 off the Westport, WA coast. Remainder of the previous discussion largely remains valid with only minor edits made.

Will see increasing west to northwest swell arriving later tonight into Wed, with main swell running 9 to 12 ft. As such, will leave the current advisories in place as the winds are gradually replaced with combined seas at 10-12 feet for the next few days.

Cold front will push across the region on Wed, but not all that much in way of winds in advance of the front. But, different story once the front passes. With high pressure building well offshore, will see gusty north to northwest winds behind the front later Wed night and Thu, with gusts 20 to 30 kt. Still will have swell running 10 to 12 ft.

Friday and Saturday bring weak pressure gradients across the waters, however, low pressure located well offshore will bring some form of easterly component winds. Sunday heading toward Monday has significant uncertainty regarding surface low pressure centers and the track they take. Current worst case from a few model solutions has a deepening surface low crossing the coast over the Columbia Mouth with strong winds possible, however, there are more solutions which take the low further north into Vancouver Island and somewhat weaker.

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Air Stagnation Advisory until noon PST Thursday for Cascade Foothills in Lane County-Cascades in Lane County-South Willamette Valley.

WA . None. PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM PST Thursday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR out 60 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 AM PST Thursday for coastal waters from Cascade Head OR to Florence OR out 60 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Columbia River Bar.

Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 5 AM PST Wednesday for Columbia River Bar.



www.weather.gov/portland

Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland www.twitter.com/NWSPortland


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 27 mi37 min 55°F8 ft
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 43 mi33 min SSW 6G8 54°F
SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR 43 mi45 min WNW 1G2.9 55°F 54°F1026.3 hPa
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 46 mi57 min N 1G1.9 55°F1026.3 hPa

Wind History for South Beach, Yaquina River, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newport, Newport Municipal Airport, OR40 mi58 minN 02.00 miFog/Mist54°F52°F94%1027.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KONP

Wind History from ONP (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Entrance, Siuslaw River, Oregon
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Entrance
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Tue -- 01:57 AM PST     1.64 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:49 AM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:30 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:26 AM PST     7.67 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:40 PM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 03:10 PM PST     1.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:39 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:08 PM PST     5.94 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Gardiner
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:49 AM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:02 AM PST     1.36 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:29 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:28 AM PST     7.02 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:41 PM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:16 PM PST     0.92 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:40 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:10 PM PST     5.44 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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