Sunrise 5:53 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 1:16 AM   Moonset 9:51 AM

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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 1026 Pm Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
Rest of tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers late this evening, then showers likely after midnight. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms late. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - North winds 10 knots or less becoming west. Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday night - South winds 10 knots or less. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday - South winds around 10 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 300740 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 340 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will slowly cross the area today with showers and the risk for a few thunderstorms. Dry weather associated with weak high pressure will return for Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will remain above normal through the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Stationary boundary draped across the region will lift to the north this morning with a few showers and an isolated thunderstorm possible across central New York.

Wavy upstream cold front will slowly cross the region today.
Narrow band of light to moderate showers lined up along the boundary will work into the region with the front. Instability will remain fairly limited, so any thunder looks isolated to widely scattered at best. Basin average rainfall amounts should not exceed a quarter inch, although localized amounts of up to a half inch will be possible in any stronger convection. Despite the wealth of cloud cover and expected precipitation temperatures will be on the milder side with most highs in the 60s to lower 70s, with the warmest reading along the Southern Tier and colder readings closer to Lake Ontario.

The showers will taper off from west to east late this afternoon and this evening as the cold front exits. While the showers will move east overnight, clouds will be slow to clear.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Mid-level ridge axis will slide across the lower Great Lakes Wednesday before flattening out to zonal flow Thursday, allowing for a short wave trough to slide across southern Canada. Translating this pattern down to the surface, an elongated area across the Appalachians will spread into New York State, supporting dry weather for much of Wednesday. The aforementioned shortwave will support a surface low to pass across northern Ontario and Quebec Thursday.
Despite the presence of the surface low to the north, surface high pressure will remain strong and keep the shower activity well to the north out of New York State and into Canada.

With the ridging overhead and at the surface, warm air advection will support temperatures to warm up into the mid to upper 60s across the North Country and range in the 70s elsewhere.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
The next surface low will be in the midst of passing north across the Upper Midwest into Ontario, Canada Thursday night through Friday. Bountiful warm moist air will continue to advect into the region Friday, where a few afternoon showers will be possible.

As this surface low continues to progress northward across Canada, its associated surface cold front will cross from west to east across the Great Lakes Friday night through Sunday. There continues to remain some uncertainty with the exact timing and therefore held PoPs to just a chance for now.

Brief surface high pressure will then slide across the Great Lakes Sunday night thorugh Monday, causing any lingering showers to gradually deplete from west to east.

Overall, temperatures will continue to remain above average through the end of the week and into the weekend.

AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Conditions will gradually deteriorate this morning with cigs trending down to MVFR then IFR. An upstream cold front will slowly cross the region today with periodic light to moderate showers. A few thunderstorms are possible, but confidence is low in coverage and location.

Outlook...

Tonight...Showers ending with MVFR to IFR cigs.
Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.
Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
A quiet week is expected on the lower Great Lakes as the pressure gradients remains weak. Winds will generally remain 15 knots or less. There will periodic showers or thunderstorms today before dry weather returns for the mid week period.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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