Sunrise 5:33 AM   Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 4:40 AM   Moonset 6:35 PM

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FXUS61 KBTV 061111 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 711 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
Once we clear precipitation later this morning, a couple of days with dry and warm weather are expected Rain chances will return by Wednesday, along with a trend towards cooler temperatures struggling to rise above 60 over the weekend. Friday appears most likely to be the wettest day.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 704 AM EDT Monday...No significant changes were needed with this update. The frontal boundary is moving through the St Lawrence Valley this morning, and its associated showers are moving through northern NY/northern and central VT. This activity has been a little more scattered than anticipated, though there is now a fairly good cluster moving through the Champlain Valley at this hour. Overall, expect the showers to trend south and east through the morning hours. Patchy fog is currently seen across portions of eastern VT and northern NY, but this will erode through the morning. Clearing takes place this afternoon, though southern areas will likely keep some high cloud cover as low pressure slips by well to our south.
Forecast has this all covered, just made some slight tweaks to sky cover and PoPs to match the latest radar/satellite trends.

Previous discussion...Scattered showers will continue to slowly drift southward across the region through early this morning, following alongside a weak frontal boundary. Once this feature and its showers exit to our southeast, expect a couple of pleasant days as ridging builds over the region. Southern areas will hold onto at least a few clouds for a good part of the day today, but expect widespread sunshine on Tuesday. Highs both today and Tuesday will range from the mid 60s to the low 70s.
With a drier airmass, light winds, and clear skies, lows tonight will be 40s in most spots, though some of the usual colder sheltered locations in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom could drop into the 30s. Patchy fog will be possible tonight as well, mainly in the favored valley locations.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 333 AM EDT Monday...Tuesday night will start off with ideal radiational cooling conditions as there will be clear skies, light winds, and a dry airmass. Clouds will slowly overspread the region as the night progresses so the radiational cooling will diminish as the night goes on. Temperatures will likely drop quickly in the first part of the night and then drop slower or stay relatively constant in the second part of the night. Because of the initially favorable radiational cooling conditions, blended in some MOS guidance to lower temperatures slightly. Lows will be in the 40s across the region. Rain showers will arrive Wednesday morning and they should persist on and off as an approaching shortwave from the midwest interacts with another shortwave pivoting around a large scale trough over Eastern Canada. Some convection is possible, particularly over northern New York, as some instability develops develops in the afternoon. However, it looks like the strongest instability will be to our south over central New York and below so there will likely only be a couple non-severe thunderstorms and convective showers here. QPF is generally between a quarter inch and a half inch and with relatively light precipitation rates, flooding is currently not expected. The rain showers will move out in the late afternoon and evening.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 333 AM EDT Monday...Active but relatively unimpactful weather will prevail late in the week and through the weekend. The first low moves through Thursday night into Friday and brings some rain showers. The is low model uncertainty about how long high pressure over Canada can keep the rain to the south. The Euro and many of its ensembles keeps much of the day dry, especially over Vermont, while the GFS and its ensembles favors a mostly rainy day. Therefore, kept chance PoPs for much of the day. Regardless of what occurs on Thursday, the low will move through Thursday night into Friday and bring widespread showers. A secondary low will attempt to develop off the New England coast on Friday and there might be just enough cold air in place for there to be some snow showers on the highest peaks. QPF should not be anything extraordinary, but with the combination from the rain on Wednesday, there is a low chance that some rivers reach or slightly exceed bankfull, most notably Otter Creek in Rutland. However, there is relatively high confidence that the flooding threat will not increase significantly. Less than a quarter of GFS and Euro ensembles bring more than an inch of rain for either system and most of the ones that do keep rainfall under 1.25 inches. Behind the storm, drier weather should prevail for the weekend though a there is the chance of a few showers, mostly on Sunday. Temperatures look to stay pretty consistent during this period with highs and lows generally close to or slightly below climatological normals.

AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Through 12Z Tuesday...Currently a mix of MVFR and IFR ceilings across the region. Scattered showers will slowly cross from west to east early in the period as a weak front pushes through, and ceilings will remain MVFR/IFR through 14-5z. Visibilities will occasionally be reduced 3-5SM at times in rain and fog through 15z, as well. The front exits to our southeast by 16z, and expect gradual improvement thereafter, with ceilings lifting to MVFR and eventually VFR at all terminals by late in the afternoon. Patchy fog is possible at KSLK/KMPV after 07z Tuesday, likely IFR or even LIFR. Winds light and mainly terrain driven through early this, turning toward the north/northwest around 5-8 kt once the front moves through, then trending back toward light/near calm overnight.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

Troy
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Mon -- 06:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
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