Saturday, October23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Caseville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:58AMSunset 6:40PM Saturday October 23, 2021 4:54 PM EDT (20:54 UTC) Moonrise 7:15PMMoonset 9:55AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 335 Pm Edt Sat Oct 23 2021
Tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots. Cloudy with a chance of light showers. Waves 2 feet or less building to 3 to 5 feet in the late evening and overnight. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Monday..Northeast winds to 30 knots. Rain showers in the morning, then light showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 8 to 12 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ421 Expires:202110240900;;151748 FZUS53 KDTX 231935 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 335 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ421-240900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caseville, MI
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location: 44.03, -83.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 231900 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 300 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021

DISCUSSION.

Light diurnally driven showers under mid level trough will wind down quickly early this evening as this upper disturbance shifts off to the east and daytime heating is lost. In the wake of this system, expect clearing skies into tonight with at least partly cloudy skies expected overnight. Light west winds of 10 mph or less will also trend to light/variable or calm tonight. This will set the stage for frost development as temperatures drop into the lower to mid 30s in many locations. Given the mild weather to this point in the fall which has extended the growing season a bit, will go ahead and issue a late season Frost Advisory to highlight this potential for a fairly widespread frost.

Attention then turns to a strong upper disturbance which will emerge from the central Rockies into the plains tonight and deepen as it tracks east into the southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley from Sunday night into Monday. FGEN forcing will increase in advance of the deepening system with initial rainfall potential expanding into far southern portions of the forecast area Sunday afternoon/evening as moisture transport increases into the area. The preferred location for best FGEN forcing still looks to reside from the I-94 corridor southward into Sunday evening with a gradual drift north into the M- 59 and eventually I-69 corridor on Sunday night as the deepening low pressure encroaches from the west and increasing low level jet leads to an expansion of strengthening FGEN aoa the H85 level as low level front remains well south of the area.

Widespread rain will then continue on Monday and expand to include much/all of the forecast area as deformation axis shifts over the region as the center of this low pressure system tracks through the Ohio Valley region. PWAT readings eventually top 1 inch for at least southern portions of the area so expect periods of heavy rain given the widespread upper support/lift that will expand of the region w/ the passage of this system. Northeasterly flow, which will also be on the increase overnight Sunday night, will increase further on Monday as the pressure gradient tightens between this low and sprawling high pressure positioned over Ontario. Wind gusts into the 30 to 35 mph range should be common on Monday with readings closer to 40 or 45 mph immediately downwind of Lake(s) Huron and Erie over the Thumb as well as the far southern reaches of SE Lower Michigan.

This storm system will take a nearly due west to east track within a rather progressive upper flow regime as it is steered around the southern periphery of the aforementioned high pressure system. This will lead to a rapid shift of precipitation to the east of the area by Monday evening with any lingering light showers finished before midnight. Winds will also ease into Monday night as they back to a more northerly direction in the wake of the passing low.

Seasonably cool conditions will set up as a ridge of surface high pressure (extending from the main Ontario high pressure) shifts over the area Tuesday into Wednesday. This ridge will also bring a period of dry weather during the mid week period. Temperatures during this period will moderate somewhat as upper ridging also translates east into the region in advance of the next significant developing storm system to the west/southwest. So, expect high temperatures in the upper 40s/lower 50s to climb back into the mid or possibly upper 50s by Wednesday/Thursday.

This next system will also emerge from the central/southern Rockies and then mature well to the west/southwest of the area as it tries to cutoff briefly from the main band of westerlies over the northern CONUS. However, it will eventually open back up and shift into the eastern CONUS, bringing additional rain chances in the Thursday to Friday time frame. Temperatures will not cool off much with as this system passes the area and the connection to cooler Canadian air is very minimal. So, expect 50s to persist on into next weekend.

MARINE.

Weak high pressure across the central Great Lakes will slowly drift eastward the remainder of today and into tonight as it slowly washes out with time. Light southwesterly winds will gradually increase in strength heading into tonight in response to developing low pressure in the central Plains. Cold air continuing to feed down from northern Ontario will favor the potential for waterspouts over portions of the Lake Huron basin through tonight. The Plains low pressure system will continue deepening as it tracks northeastward towards the northern Ohio Valley Sunday into Monday bringing an extended period of wet and unsettled weather. Winds will flip northeasterly with the approach of the low and strengthen in response to the tightening pressure gradient. Gusts to at least small craft criteria certainly look plausible during this time with increasing trends for gusts to gales over the central and southern Lake Huron waters. At a minimum, Small Craft Advisories will need to be issued late Sunday and through at least Monday for all of the nearshore waters, and gale headlines may need to be considered as we get closer in time as well. Northeast flow decreases but remains moderate then heading into the middle of next week as the low departs off to the east.

HYDROLOGY.

A long duration rainfall event will begin near the MI and OH state line by midday Sunday and gradually extend northward downstream of a strengthening low pressure system emerging from the central Rockies. A steady feed of moisture into the area in advance of this system will result in PWATs near 1.25" over southern parts of the forecast area which should translate into 1 to 2 inches of rainfall over the southern half of the area from midday Sunday into Monday afternoon with higher amounts quite possible south of the I-94 corridor where moisture will be most abundant. Lighter totals an be expected to the north of I-69 where one half or three quarters of an inch will be possible. This system will shift east of the area overnight Monday night with overall flood impacts generally expected to be minor and confined to poorly drained and low lying areas. Some gradual river rises will also occur, but bankfull levels are not anticipated.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 125 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021

AVIATION .

Morning MVFR clouds are slowly being eroded and pushed east this afternoon as modest mid-level subsidence advances into the area. Abundant low level moisture will keep a fairly robust VFR cu field through the rest of daytime hours today. Isolated drizzle can't be ruled out later this afternoon near the Saginaw Bay area but the majority of the terminals should stay dry for the remainder of today. Loss of daytime heating and continued subsidence help to clear the bulk of cloud out of the area overnight before mid-level clouds overspread SE MI from the south ahead of the next approaching low pressure system Sunday morning. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Medium in ceilings at or below 5000 feet this afternoon. Low this evening through tonight.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for MIZ047>049-053>055- 060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

DISCUSSION . DG MARINE . IRL HYDROLOGY . DG AVIATION . KDK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 19 mi74 min SSW 8G11 47°F 1015.6 hPa
KP58 20 mi59 min WNW 5.1 50°F 1015.3 hPa43°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 21 mi74 min SSW 5.1G8.9 54°F 1015.6 hPa
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 31 mi60 min W 2.9G8 49°F 57°F1014.2 hPa36°F
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 33 mi54 min W 4.1G4.1 46°F 1015.2 hPa (-0.7)

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI19 mi59 minWSW 510.00 miOvercast47°F40°F75%1015.6 hPa
Port Hope, MI20 mi59 minWNW 5 mi50°F43°F77%1015.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBAX

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW400000000000000000W3W300W3W4
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NW8NW11NW8NW8NW9NW6N6NW5W3NW40NW5N6NW60N4NW30
2 days agoW6SW4W4SE60SE500000S30SE4SE7S6S6S10SW10W11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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