Sunday, January16, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Elba, MN

Version 3.4
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3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:35AMSunset 4:57PM Sunday January 16, 2022 7:40 PM CST (01:40 UTC) Moonrise 3:36PMMoonset 7:04AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elba, MN
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location: 44.05, -92     debug


Area Discussion for - La Crosse, WI
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FXUS63 KARX 170007 AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 607 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Monday) Issued at 325 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022

Key Points

- Risk remains for freezing drizzle/light snow along and west of the Mississippi River Valley before midnight tonight.

- Quiet and seasonable temperatures for Monday.

The earlier band of light snow accompanying the passage of a mid to upper tropospheric trough has exited the forecast area with low stratus funneling southeastward in its wake. This stratus is preceding a meridional warm frontal boundary demarcating a downslope-modified airmass working eastward from western Minnesota. The increasing WAA this evening should result in high temperatures in the 20s being reached this evening/overnight before midnight.

As 280K isentropic ascent and theta-e advection increase over the near-surface warm frontal surface, there remains a risk of a freezing drizzle/snow mix starting around 22-00Z and continuing through about 06Z. HRRR forecast soundings all day have been steadfast in depicting a -10 to -15 ubar/sec bullseye right through the lowest 150 mb of the saturated sounding profile and low enough static stability to possibly lead to shower development in addition to a more stratiform/drizzle scenario. The biggest question revolves around whether we see ice nucleation in the column. Forecast profiles from the various HREF inputs depict the saturation flirting around the -8 to -10 C layer at times, therefore kept a wintry mix for wording in the forecast. The overall threat looks to be transient, lasting for 3-5 hours at a given location before negative theta-e advection behind a cold front ensues and cuts off the moisture.

As we go into the day on Monday, a progressive, low-amplitude ridge slides through and keeps the sensible weather at bay. The main uncertainty will revolve around cloud cover and given the light wind profiles during the day, conditions are unlikely to vary much through the day. There will be a weak push of CAA tonight after 06Z behind the cold front, but weak southwesterly flow ensuing by Monday afternoon should result in temperatures rising back to near average for afternoon highs.

LONG TERM. (Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 325 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022

Key Points

- Light snow Tuesday/Tuesday night followed by strong winds Tuesday night could lead to blowing and drifting of snow.

- Very cold for Wednesday through Friday with overnight wind chill values of -15 to -35, coldest west of the Mississippi River.

The next significant weather system of note arrives Tuesday and Tuesday night as a compact, but well-defined, clipper PV lobe slides across the ND/Canadian border and tracks through northern Minnesota. The GEFS/EPS guidance suite has struggled to bring QPF south of I-94, but the SREF and deterministic NAM/GFS profiles would suggest at least some risk of precipitation with both the WAA isentropic ascent during the day on Tuesday and then again with the push of CAA with the cold front on Tuesday night. For now have kept the forecast as all snow given the uncertainties in the thermodynamic profiles, but if confidence grows that there will be precip along and south of I-94 during the day, may need to introduce a wintry mix to the forecast with the H700-500 dry slot cutting eastward around the south side of the low during the course of the day.

Strong CAA ensues on Tuesday night as a potent cold front slams southeastward through the forecast area. Maintained slight chance PoPs through the overnight hours for frontal/post-frontal snow showers. Strong northwesterly winds gusting to 40 mph, arrive behind the front as well and could lead to blowing snow conditions for any snow showers that do develop.

After a mild day on Tuesday, temperatures plummet through the night and reach the single digits for Wednesday morning. The cold air lingers for Wednesday through Friday under a 1040-mb high pressure cell. Highs on Wednesday will struggle to climb out of the single digits above zero and on Thursday many locales will not get above zero. Wind chills fall to dangerous levels and will likely necessitate headlines as we get closer to the event.

Saturday features the next chance of snow as the cold pattern departs. There remains ample uncertainty in the details of the system, but confidence is growing that this will bring some snow to the region.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 600 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022

MVFR/IFR ceilings with a little light snow or a freezing drizzle snow mix early in the TAF period. Northwest winds over the next couple of hours strengthen with gusts 15 to 25kts. Forecast soundings show the low level moisture sticks around through the TAF period and beyond. Continue to mention MVFR ceilings with periodic IFR ceilings. The northwest winds lighten Monday and could see some light fog develop around RST, but will not mention at this time.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. MN . None. IA . None.

SHORT TERM . Skow LONG TERM . Skow AVIATION . Zapotocny


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Winona, Winona Municipal Airport-Max Conrad Field, MN16 mi46 minNW 610.00 miOvercast23°F18°F80%1010.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KONA

Wind History from ONA (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hr0SE30NW300000S50SE3S4S4S4SW5W4W5W5W40NW4NW5NW7
1 day agoE8E7E8E5NE5NE4NE5NE6NE5000NE4NE3000SE3S5SE30000
2 days agoNE5N4NE6E4NE5E6E4E5E6NE5E7E11E9E6E9E10
G18
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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