Sunrise 5:35 AM   Sunset 8:03 PM Moonrise 4:19 AM   Moonset 5:20 PM

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FXUS63 KUNR 060501 AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1101 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024

KEY MESSAGES

-Windy with increasing chances for showers through Monday.

-Strong winds possible Monday night and Tues across northwest SD.

-Unsettled and cool the remainder of the work week.

DISCUSSION
(This Evening Through Sunday)
Issued at 148 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024

Deep upper low is moving across the western CONUS and will provide windy and unsettled weather for the upcoming week. The western CONUS upper trough continues to shift east into the Rockies supporting ongoing pressure falls over the region. This has resulted in gusty SE winds across the SD plains. Winds have gusted to around 55 mph on the NW SD plains with winds continuing this afternoon. Winds will taper off some most places in the evening, but will persist/increase downwind the Pine Ridge later tonight across scentral SD. Hence have extended the wind adv there for this, deciding to go through Monday given gusty SW winds with the passage of the dry line. Additional wind headlines will likely be needed for tomorrow on portions of the SD plains, but given the expected lull tonight, will let the night shift decide on area/extent. Did issue a high wind watch for NW SD Monday afternoon through Tues afternoon as the low deepens and CAA with a strong pressure gradient support a potential high wind setup there as the core of LL winds advect across that region.
Otherwise, pos theta-e adv with a weakening cap will allow for a thunderstorm or two over NE WY late this afternoon/evening, with convection developing and shifting NE across NE WY and far western SD tonight. There will be chances for showers most places tonight with the main moisture surge/WAA, although the best chances will be across mainly NW SD. Strong storm system will then move into the plains Monday, with the sfc trough/dryline shifting east across southwest through scentral SD, supporting breezy SW winds.
Severe threat will remain south and east of the FA, although gusty winds are likely along the sfc trough, which may spawn some weak convection across scentral SD. Extended wind adv should cover these concerns. Further west, deformation rains will spread into the region Monday morning along with gusty westerly winds. As the upper low stalls and then slowly migrates east, winds, rain showers, and cool weather will persist through Wed night. Again, warning level winds are possible Monday night/Tues across NW SD as dry slotting interacts with fast flow aloft through dynamic mixing. Rain will change to snow in the higher elevations of the Black Hills Monday night with some light accums possible. However, somewhat better chances for snow accums are possible Tue night into Wed when colder air advects into the region, with some snow lingering into Thur. Things will begin to slowly warm up and dry out toward next weekend as the upper low finally exits the region and a ridge of high pressure builds across the western CONUS.

AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued At 1058 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible overnight, from east of KGCC into the western SD plains. MFVR/IFR conditions are possible with any stronger cores. Moist, upslope flow has resulted in MVFR ceilings developing across the Black Hills into KRAP; these will persist through much of the forecast period.

Additional showers and storms are possible after 10-12z Monday morning, spreading eastward throughout the day. Winds will shift out of the west-northwest throughout the day Monday, with gusts 35-50 knots possible by early afternoon through the late evening hours.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon for SDZ001-012-013-025-072-073-078.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ Monday for SDZ044-046- 047-049-076-077.
WY...High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon for WYZ060.

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