Friday, December3, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Au Gres, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:49AMSunset 5:01PM Friday December 3, 2021 3:09 PM EST (20:09 UTC) Moonrise 6:58AMMoonset 4:27PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 411 Am Est Fri Dec 3 2021
Today..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then backing to the southwest late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots. Mostly cloudy in the evening becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Saturday..West winds 20 to 25 knots. Gusts to 30 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy in the evening becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and overnight. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ421 Expires:202112031615;;821148 FZUS53 KDTX 030911 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 411 AM EST Fri Dec 3 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ421-031615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Au Gres, MI
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location: 44.06, -83.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 031708 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1208 PM EST Fri Dec 3 2021

UPDATE. Issued at 1040 AM EST Fri Dec 3 2021

Light rain/snow ongoing across southern MI this morning largely isentropically driven well north of a weak area of low pressure across the central/southern plains. High pressure overhead locally has held tough with plenty of dry air through the mid- level per APX's 12z raob. Some low-level moisture trapped below a ~4 kft inversion responsible for some early flurries across the higher terrain.

Focus through the remainder of the day revolves around upstream low pressure across eastern Manitoba that's progged to dive southeastward toward the northern Great Lakes late today-tonight. Weak southwest winds through the boundary layer today will aid to boost moisture profiles across northern Michigan with weakly forced synoptic precip expected this afternoon through this evening, most widespread/numerous across the northern half to two-thirds of the forecast area. Primary precip type expected through this time frame to be light snow, but wouldn't be surprised to see some rain mix in near the coasts.

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 337 AM EST Fri Dec 3 2021

. More Light Precipitation Possible Again Today .

High Impact Weather Potential . None is expected.

Northern Michigan will be between an Alberta Clipper moving by to our south today and another one moving by to our north tonight. Associated warm air advection/weak forcing and limited amounts of moisture will likely bring some light precipitation to the region today. There will likely even be a little lake enhancement later tonight when over lake instability increases. Precipitation is expected to be mainly in the form of snow, though rain could mix in near the lakeshores. Not much snow accumulation is expected today, generally a half inch or less but an inch or two is possible across eastern upper tonight. Abundant cloudiness through the period is expected to lead to small diurnal temperature ranges with highs today in the low and mid 30s and lows tonight in the mid 20s and low 30s. Light winds today will shift into the west northwest later tonight and become gusty.

SHORT TERM. (Saturday through Sunday) Issued at 337 AM EST Fri Dec 3 2021

High Impact Weather Potential . Possibly heavy LES near ANJ for Saturday. Then freezing rain possibilities for Sunday over N Lower.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast and Possible Impacts . Saturday, The models all agree with NW flow over E Upper, and even N Lower, but the moisture in N Lower gets pushed northeast and the NW flow behind the clipper looks good with the -14c 850 mb temperature that stays there through 06z/Sun. This should set up good LES in E Upper, and it looks like specifically, Chippewa county. The signals are for moderate to possibly heavy amounts with the wind direction remaining pretty consistent for about 12 hours. However, a couple of the models, mainly the GFS, and the HiResW Fv3 look to put a heavy band to the north of CYAM rather than just south of or on top of KANJ. There's enough uncertainty, that the amounts are light to moderate in Chippewa county, but it looks like something that could be an issue through Saturday evening. However, after 06z/Sun, the next clipper is moving out of the N Plains, and begins to spread the snow into the forecast area, and pushes the LES ingredients out of the area, by 12z/Sun. Sunday, the Low moves out of the Dakotas pushes east into the Upper Great Lakes. The GFS and ECMWF have swapped sfc low positions, with the GFS being more southern track than the ECMWF, which now goes into W Lake Superior. However, at 00z/Monday both have the 850 mb freezing line just north of M-55, and a little south of M-72. There is a wedge of warm air aloft that the both models show enough to begin to introduce FZRA/RA as possibilities from Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. So far using the FRAM model for the ice accumulation through 12z/Mon, advisory ice may be warranted for portions of the N Lower. However, with the low tracks still changing, am a little leery about issuing something at that is 6th period and beyond. However, we will need to watch this.

LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 337 AM EST Fri Dec 3 2021

High Impact Weather Potential . Monday, morning ice accumulations to moderate lake effect snow amounts by the afternoon.

Extended (Monday through Thursday) . Monday, Looks like we could see some of the coldest air of the season, as the -15c or colder air shows up on the GFS and ECMWF by 00z/Tue with strong NW flow, producing decent LES through Monday night. Tuesday, we look to get into the winter season, as a deeper trough digs into the 4 corners area, however, The sfc low looks to remain well south of the Ohio Valley. There will be some snow Tuesday night, but with the main action now in the SE states, which would cut off some of our moisture transport, we get left with the moisture traveling with the northern branch feature and smaller amounts. Wednesday, with the cold air still in place (-10c ish 850 mb temperatures), there could be some LES off Lake Michigan, but the directions from the models are SW or SE. SW could impact us, but SE would not. Then 850 mb temperatures warm enough that the lake effect would probably shut off Wednesday night. Thursday, another clipper moves into the Upper Great Lakes, and it looks like rain/snow mix. However, the GFS much warmer, and may bring enough rain to melt the snow again. We'll see.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1208 PM EST Fri Dec 3 2021

Weak low pressure will slide by to our north tonight bringing rain/snow showers across portions of northern MI this afternoon into this evening before precipitation transitions to lake effect snow showers by late tonight into Saturday. MVFR and even some high end IFR expected at the terminals late today into the overnight with some recovery expected late tonight/Saturday morning. Southwest winds this afternoon become gusty tonight while veering more west- northwesterly with time.

MARINE. Issued at 337 AM EST Fri Dec 3 2021

Light and variable winds becoming light southwest this afternoon. Winds are then expected to increase and shift into the west northwest later tonight into Saturday. Posted small craft advisories across all zones for now but a few gale force gusts are possible.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Saturday for LHZ345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 1 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday for LHZ349. GALE WARNING from 2 AM to 4 PM EST Saturday for LHZ346>348. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Saturday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. LS . GALE WARNING from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Saturday for LSZ321-322.

UPDATE . MG NEAR TERM . AS SHORT TERM . JL LONG TERM . JL AVIATION . MG MARINE . AS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 7 mi29 min S 1G2.9 34°F 1017.9 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 17 mi29 min 0G1.9 34°F 1017.9 hPa
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 18 mi69 min SE 1.9G1.9 34°F 1017.3 hPa (-2.3)
KP58 46 mi74 min NW 7 36°F 1018.1 hPa24°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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This dayNW13
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI31 mi74 minNW 310.00 miOvercast34°F21°F60%1017.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOSC

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)
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NW9NW7NW6NW30W30NW300N40N3W40
1 day agoS9S6S7S10
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2 days agoW10W11
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W5W6W6SW6SW60SW5SW4SW5SW4SW6SW5SW5SW3SW5SW3S6SW10
G14
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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