Sunrise 6:22 AM   Sunset 8:42 PM Moonrise 3:18 AM   Moonset 2:19 PM

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LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 330 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024
Today - South winds 5 to 10 knots backing to the north late in the afternoon. Cloudy with showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Areas of fog in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and early morning, then increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers in the evening. Areas of fog. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Saturday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the south in the late evening and overnight. Areas of fog in the evening. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with a chance of showers after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ400
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 031050 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 650 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers/maybe t-storms ending w to e today.

- Rain showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms this weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Pattern/synopsis: 1003mb surface low pressure over far nw MN. A front arcs east and then south from the low, across western upper MI and on to central IN. The low heads ne toward southern Hudson Bay thru tonight, and the front will cross all of northern MI by early this afternoon.

Forecast: Showers have been expanding during the night. Most of the forecast area is seeing occasional showers. Lightning has mostly been in central and southern lower MI. May still be a window for a few rumbles, especially in n central and ne lower MI. But the clear main story today is the abrupt end of precip from w to e, as the front moves thru. Showers will end in far western areas by late morning, along I-75 by early afternoon, and along the ne lower MI coast by late afternoon. Substantial clearing begins only 1-2 hours after precip ends. Expect mostly clear skies across the area by sunset.

Max temps today in the 60s to around 70f, though cooler on the immediate coastlines.

For tonight, a weak ridge of high pressure extends into the area from the ne. Drier air intrusion and diurnally-induced vertical mixing today, will be substantial enough to limit fog/stratus potential in western areas tonight. That is less certain in the east, and especially near Lk Huron. Do have some fog and patchy low clouds possible east of I-75 overnight.

Min temps upper 30s to mid 40s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Longwave troughing and associated low pressure systems situated across North America will influence the sensible weather for the long term. Two separate low pressure systems located to the west of the CWA currently, will eventually track towards the Great Lakes Region and bring precipitation chances back for the weekend and mid next week.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:

- Rain showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms this weekend: A weak frontal passage will bring a round of showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday morning. Along with this will be a slight decrease in daytime temperatures for Sunday, but this will be short-lived as we head into Monday. By Monday, as heights rise, quiet and warmer weather look to take hold for the first half of the work week. However, guidance continues to hint at more active/ wet weather returning to the region by mid next week with the potential for heavier showers and possible thunderstorms growing more likely- Stay tuned.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Period of low cigs expected this morning, along with widespread showers, as a cold front crosses the area. The rain will end from west to east today, beginning mid-morning, and cigs will improve shortly after. After an early mix of MVFR to IFR cigs, all sites will improve to VFR...MBL by late morning, APN by late afternoon.

Winds become w to wnw and a touch gusty behind the front today.
Lighter winds tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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