Sunrise 5:40 AM   Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 2:43 AM   Moonset 11:59 AM

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SLZ024 Expires:202405011515;;422349 Fzus61 Kbuf 010832 Glfsl
forecast for the saint lawrence river including the thousand islands region national weather service buffalo ny 432 am edt Wed may 1 2024
slz022-024-011515- saint lawrence river from cape vincent to saint regis 432 am edt Wed may 1 2024
Today - Light and variable winds. Patchy fog early. Tonight - Southeast winds less than 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers after midnight. Showers likely late. Thursday - West winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers in the morning. Thursday night - West winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Mostly cloudy. Friday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. A chance of showers Friday night. Saturday - East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of showers during the day, then showers likely Saturday night. Sunday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely.

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FXUS61 KBTV 011741 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 141 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
Areas of fog will cause poor visibility this morning especially in low spots away from Lake Champlain. Cloudy conditions will persist today with more chances of light rain tonight into Thursday.
Changeable weather will continue into the weekend with a series of weak fronts moving through the region and brief periods of high pressure keeping temperatures near or slightly above seasonal averages.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 141 PM EDT Wednesday...Clouds continue to lift and break up this afternoon with breaks of sunshine helping to warm temps into the mid 50s to lower 60s. An isolated shower can't be ruled out but overall should be a dry afternoon.

A quick moving, weak low pressure will drop out of Canada tonight increasing rain chances mainly towards the Canadian border and down the Greens into Thursday; light QPF is expected with northern Greens picking up around 0.33" and sprinkles to generally up to 0.1" elsewhere. With cold air locked well northward, airmasses moving through the region will generally be continental originating from the central Plains. This will keep temperatures well moderated with highs generally in the upper 50s to low 60s across northern New York and northern Vermont with low 60s to around 70 degrees today and Thursday respectively for southern Vermont. Lows tonight will be mild, in the 40s to low 50s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 331 AM EDT Wednesday...Low stratus will linger Thursday night behind a weak shortwave, but any precipitation should move out by then. Lows will fall into the 40s across the region. Ridging will briefly build in for Friday and will keep the weather dry. However, a surface high located over Atlantic Canada will keep the region in easterly flow and will help the low clouds linger into the day.
These clouds should break sometime during the day on Friday and the sun may briefly able to come out. However, high clouds ahead of an occluded front will quickly be moving in from the west so any sun will likely be filtered and short-lived. Temperatures should still warm up pretty far, with highs expected to be in the upper 60s and low 70s. This is supported by 925 mb temperatures generally between 8-13 celsius. However, models have been trending down slightly with the temperatures and are now lingering the cloud cover longer so had to bring down highs slightly.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 331 AM EDT Wednesday...Active but relatively unimpactful weather will prevail through the weekend into next week. Overall, any cold air will be locked up to the north and zonal flow will prevent any significant storm systems from developing. This will bring some chances for showers and keep the temperatures at or above normal for the time of year. An occluded front will slowly move through over the weekend and bring some showers to the region. There is still model uncertainty in the timing so kept PoPs chance for now. The models have generally been trending to a later frontal passage, with most GFS and Euro ensemble members now having it pass through Saturday night or Sunday. The trend is keeping Saturday drier, particular across Vermont. Regardless of the timing, QPF will be relatively low and should not pose a flooding threat. A trailing cold front should pass through after and it will bring the chance for a few more additional showers, but it will be falling apart as it moves into the region. Therefore, the showers and cold air behind it look unimpressive. Seasonal and drier weather looks to dominate the beginning of the week before shower chances return mid-week.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 18Z Thursday...A mix of BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR currently will trend to SCT/BKN VFR at all sites this afternoon into the evening hours. An upper level disturbance then lowers ceilings and vsby back down to MVFR/IFR after 07-09Z Thursday in scattered to numerous showers which persist through the remainder of the period. In addition, some MVFR/IFR BR/FG is possible at KMPV/KEFK before the rain arrives from 06-09Z. Winds will be light and variable this afternoon and tonight, trending westerly on Thursday at 5-8kts.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

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