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LMZ543 Expires:202405090800;;871673 Fzus53 Kgrb 082326 Nshgrb
nearshore marine forecast national weather service green bay wi 626 pm cdt Wed may 8 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of the shore on lake michigan
lmz542-543-090800- sturgeon bay to two rivers wi-two rivers to sheboygan wi- 626 pm cdt Wed may 8 2024
Tonight - NE wind 10 to 20 kts. A slight chance of rain showers after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Thursday - NE wind 15 to 25 kts. A slight chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft in the late morning and afternoon. A small craft advisory may be needed. Thursday night - N wind 10 to 20 kts decreasing to 5 to 10 kts after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Friday - NW wind 5 to 10 kts backing S in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 ft or less.

LMZ500
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FXUS63 KGRB 082318 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 618 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

KEY MESSAGES

- An unsettled weather pattern will bring intermittent chances of showers and a few thunderstorms through the weekend. Severe weather is not expected with any of these thunderstorms.

- Low temperatures in the lower to middle 30s will be conducive for a frost or freeze over north-central and far northeast Wisconsin on Thursday night.

- Due to rainfall over the past week, river levels remain elevated. Some rivers may reach or surpass bankfull.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 313 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Short Term...Tonight and Thursday

Precipitation trends and overnight temperatures will be the main concerns in the short term forecast.

The dry conditions present in the region through the early afternoon may be interrupted briefly late this afternoon and evening across northern Wisconsin. Short term models continue to show some isolated shower activity for the northwoods, with modest instability around 100-400 SBCAPE j/kg. This trend is supported by the gradual development of a cumulus field across this area on satellite and a few weak radar echoes in development before 3PM on the Michigan side of the border. Therefore kept a low precipitation mention mainly north of a line from Wausau to Oconto but expect the showers to be fairly light. Any showers that do develop will quickly dissipate after sunset.

Tonight, a southern stream system will lift northwards to the area through the overnight hours. Continued to trend the region drier and push precipitation southwards, as increasing northeasterly flow will likely keep most of the area. If showers do reach portions of central to east-central Wisconsin, it likely won't be until after daybreak on Thursday. Low temperatures overnight will drop into the middle 30s across the far north near Vilas County, which may produce areas of patchy frost. The frost window will still be quite short tonight, but anyone with sensitive plants outdoors will need to monitor Thursday night as well, as the overnight temperatures could be much lower, into the upper 20s to lower 30s for much of northern Wisconsin.

Thursday, the rain associated with the system to our south will largely struggle to reach our area, as northeasterly winds pull in dry air to the region. The continued southerly track has promoted confidence in continuing to reduce the pops for Thursday across the area. The northeast flow will also bring some cooler temperatures, with daytime highs on Thursday expected to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Long Term...Thursday Night Through Wednesday

At the start of the period, a longwave trough to stretch from eastern Canada southwest through the Great Lakes into the central Rockies. The eastern part of this trough will sweep east by the end of the work week, to be followed by a mid-level shortwave trough quickly dropping southeast into the Great Lakes Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. This trough will be the first of a series of troughs that will follow into the middle of next week.
Thus, precipitation chances to exist about every 24 to 36 hours.
At or slightly below normal temperatures are expected through Saturday before temperatures moderate to at or above normal levels for next week.

Thursday night and Friday...
High pressure will move into the western Great Lakes region Thursday night, bringing mostly clear skies and light winds to northeast WI. Near ideal radiational cooler conditions in place will allow for temperatures to easily fall into the 30s to around 40 degrees with a few upper 20s possible in our colder locations.
Frost is a definite possibility over northern and parts of central WI and will continue to highlight in the HWO. This high pressure quickly exits to the east Friday morning, to be replaced by a stout mid-level shortwave trough and surface low. Even though instability is marginal at best, there is lift from both a weak cold front and left exit region of the upper jet. Mid-level forcing is also evident with a strong embedded shortwave within the trough. Based on the latest model timing, expect shower chances to reach northern and central WI Friday afternoon which will include a slight chance for non-severe thunderstorms. Max temperatures Friday to reach around 60 degrees near Lake MI, mainly lower to middle 60s inland.

Friday night and Saturday...
While thunderstorm chances diminish early Friday evening with the loss of daytime heating, the chance for showers will persist through much of the night especially over eastern WI as the cold front/shortwave trough move through the area. Still cannot rule out a small chance for pop-up showers Saturday afternoon as a cool air mass and daytime heating may provide enough instability to kick off light precipitation. Max temperatures on Saturday to range from the upper 50s far north/near Lake MI, lower to middle 60s elsewhere.

Saturday night and Sunday...
Any instability showers will end with the loss of daytime heating.
A ridge of high pressure just to our east will allow for skies to become partly cloudy Saturday night with a west-southwest wind at 5 to 10 mph. A few colder spots may see patchy frost, but most locations should stay frost-free. The next cold front/shortwave trough tandem is forecast to move into the western Great Lakes by Sunday afternoon with our next chance for showers/slight chance of thunderstorms. Better instability to be to our west, thus severe potential looks pretty low right now. Max temperatures on Sunday to be in the lower to middle 60s lakeside, upper 60s to lower 70s inland.

Sunday night through Wednesday...
The chance of showers/slight chance of storms will continue Sunday night as the cold front/shortwave trough move across the region.
Forecast confidence is rather low for the first half of the new work week as the models are having a hard time with the movement of systems pushing across the northern tier of states. The CMC favors Tuesday with the highest pops, the ECMWF favors Wednesday, while the GFS has chance pops each day from Monday through Wednesday. Blended model has kept the small pops in the forecast each day, but anticipate more refining of these pops as we get closer to this time frame. Temperatures do appear to go above normal next week with inland locations getting into the 70s.

AVIATION
for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

VFR conditions are expected tonight across the TAF sites. Isolated showers are expected across north-central Wisconsin through the early evening, but should not impact the TAF sites. Showers will lift north over southern Wisconsin, but should stay out of the area. CIGs are expected to drop to MVFR across central and east- central Wisconsin Thursday morning as this system passes well to the south, with VFR conditions returning during Thursday afternoon.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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