Sunrise 6:17 AM   Sunset 9:05 PM Moonrise 1:17 PM   Moonset 2:29 AM

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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 405 Am Edt Thu May 16 2024
Early this morning - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Today - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering south. Partly Sunny. A chance of rain showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot. Tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering northwest late in the day. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday night - Northeast winds around 5 knots veering east after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves less than 1 foot. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering southwest 5 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - North winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot. Monday - South winds 10 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

LMZ800
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FXUS63 KAPX 160725 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 325 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower and storm chances return late today into tonight.

- Periodic rain/storm chances continue at times Friday into next week.

- Patchy fog Friday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 324 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Mid-level shortwave ridging overhead tonight shifts off to the east the day ahead...replaced by steadily lowering heights as shortwave troughing rotates from the mid-upper MS Valley into the western Great Lakes by this evening. Associated area of surface low pressure currently over western MN will follow suit and slide northeast to north of Lake Superior tonight. An occluded front likely to trek west to east across the area early Friday morning with increasing chances for pre-frontal showers and perhaps some rumbles of thunder late today into tonight.

Forecast Details: Increasing clouds will be the rule today, especially this afternoon with otherwise filtered sunshine aiding to boost temperatures into the low-mid 70s for many inland areas.
Cooler across the eastern U.P. and near the Great Lakes -- generally spanning the 60s in those areas.

Moisture slow to increase through the day, but steadily improves from southwest to northeast by late this afternoon with PWS progged near 1.15" area-wide overnight. Latest trends support initial scattered shower and perhaps a few non-severe thunderstorms arriving into far northwest lower after 21z before steadily working east through the evening hours. Not sold one bit on how numerous these showers will be with some rather concerning trends in hi-res guidance that many locations struggle to receive much, if any, rain.
Additional isolated to scattered showers chances may percolate through the overnight hours, but again coverage may really struggle with this activity as well. Lows tonight ranging from the mid 40s to mid 50s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 324 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

SW-NE oriented trough axis/deformation zone across the central US...ahead of ridging over the West Coast. PV maxima over SD with an additional niblet ahead of it lifting through MN; looking at strengthening height falls in this region under better dynamics/difluence and deepening moisture (pwats around 1in).
Largely meridional BCZ stretches from this down into KS/OK, where another niblet aids in development of a surface low...and where best convection is on going as of 4z/16 along a theta-e ridge ahead of a surface cold front
Here in the Great Lakes
high pressure holding on to our northeast...with dry easterly background flow still holding firm over the region. Upstream moisture trying to sneak in...but struggling against our current dry air mass, noted by pwat of 0
43in from the 0z/16 sounding
with a decent dry layer below about 700mb, reflected by dewpoints in the mid 30s overhead as of 4z.

Upstream trough axis to swing through the region today/tonight...with some lingering impacts into Friday.
However...will look for ridge axis to build over the region in its wake...ahead of the next system that should be on the horizon for Saturday. Currently expecting this next PV niblet to lift through with an attendant surface system late Saturday into Saturday night, though not before a bit of a toasty start to the weekend beneath that shortwave ridge axis. This boundary looks to wash out over us Sunday, with ridging again building into the region...keeping the warmth and pleasant conditions in the area for a time. As next, more potent, trough develops upstream early next week...will watch for some kind of warm advection activity ahead of the primary system for the first part of next week. Do expect things to remain warm ahead of the primary system for the start of next week, with increasing shower/storm chances as it swings into the region at some point between Monday night and Tuesday
Right now
looks as though this system will try to stick around for midweek or so, though there is uncertainty in how deep over us this will end up, which could have impacts on temperature forecasts for the latter half of next week, going into Memorial Day weekend...though details are far from being clear attm.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Periodic rain/storm chances Friday into next week...Think we will still be dealing with the tail end of the initial round of showers/storms Friday morning, especially over northeast Lower, but perhaps as far west as the I-75 corridor as the front slips in, as some convective instability should still be around. In fact, focus for any lingering precip through the day Friday should be over NE Lower...where there are some signals for the front to kind of stall/wash out during the day...though I do have to wonder if it may become reinforced by lake breeze development if lake breezes are able to crop up, esp off Lake Huron. Steep lapse rates aloft support upwards of 500 J/kg of MUCAPE, especially in the afternoon, though there is some question as to whether or not we'll get enough diurnal heating/forcing to be able to bust through a cap expected to develop around 850/800mb
Again
best shot at this would be over northeast Lower...but a lot of questions as to how this will play out for sure...especially with drier air advecting in, which should work against cap-breaking Friday afternoon. Think the primary threats with any storms will be wind/downbursts and hail...though shear isn't overly impressive, which currently suggests widespread strong storms aren't likely attm.

Some nebulous potential for showers/storms Sunday afternoon as a front washes out in the region...but better rain/storm chances could return as early as Sunday night into Monday with aforementioned warm advection
Broadly
setup appears favorable for showers and storms to impact the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes into midweek next week, though details may not be totally sorted out until we get much closer...as it's possible the forecast will be altered/impacted by any of the rounds of convection that develop. Stay tuned.

Patchy Fog Friday Night...Given light/nebulous winds Friday into Friday night (actually, through much of the weekend, for what it's worth)
and the rain from tonight into Friday
think there is some potential for patchy fog to develop Friday night. Have added this to the forecast for now, though will have to see if the atmosphere is able to dry out enough during the day to keep it from forming after sunset. Not impossible we could see a little fog again Saturday night, though less certainty in this idea attm.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 1145 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Pronounced low level ridge axis currently extending thru Ontario and much of the Western Great Lakes will slowly slide eastward into the Eastern Great Lakes and New England overnight and Thursday
Meanwhile
an upstream cold front will push into the Upper Mississippi Valley overnight and into the Western Great Lakes on Thursday
Skies will remain mostly clear overnight
then mid and high clouds will gradually increase from west to east on Thursday well in advance of that cold front. Still appears increasing precip chances along and ahead of this front will hold off until after 00Z Friday. VFR conditions will hold over Northern Michigan for the next 24 hours despite increasing clouds. Light/variable surface winds overnight will become E/SE at around 10 kts on Thursday...with some lake breeze development expected near the lakeshores.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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