Tuesday, November30, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Eastlake, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:54AMSunset 5:12PM Tuesday November 30, 2021 6:35 PM EST (23:35 UTC) Moonrise 3:10AMMoonset 3:07PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 405 Pm Est Tue Nov 30 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until midnight est tonight...
Through early evening..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots backing south toward daybreak. Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet toward daybreak.
Wednesday..South gales to 35 knots veering southwest to 30 knots late in the day. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 6 to 8 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds to 30 knots decreasing to 10 to 20 knots toward daybreak. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 25 knots veering northwest late in the day. Partly Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Thursday night..Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet toward daybreak.
Friday..North winds around 10 knots backing west. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots backing southeast. Cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ849 Expires:202112010900;;686312 FZUS53 KGRR 302106 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 405 PM EST Tue Nov 30 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-010900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Eastlake, MI
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location: 44.25, -86.31     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 302300 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 600 PM EST Tue Nov 30 2021

NEAR TERM. (Through Tonight) Issued at 355 PM EST Tue Nov 30 2021

. Decreasing lake effect and winds .

High Impact Weather Potential: Low. Gusty winds in spots this evening.

Broader flow/pattern remains quite progressive. Shortwave is departing northern Lk Huron, and any synoptic assistance to precip has ended. Trailing lake effect will wane tonight, as ridging surface and aloft builds in from the west. But there's always another system, in this case a clipper-type shortwave that will bring us wx on Wednesday.

But for tonight, things will be tending to quiet down. Presently seeing wind gusts of 30-35mph in more exposed and coastal locales. Pressure gradient relaxes considerable from w to e tonight, as surface ridging arrives. Winds will steadily diminish. Leftover lake effect precip on MQT radar is unimpressive, and activity here has also decreased in coverage/intensity, as inversion heights get ready to crash well below 5k ft. Will carry no more than sct pops for rain/snow showers into late evening, and no mention of precip overnight. Will go for a mostly cloudy forecast, but there will be breaks/thin spots in the lower clouds as the inversion lowers. But on the flip side, mid/high clouds will increase overnight ahead of the next shortwave.

Min temps tonight near 20f to the mid 20s.

SHORT TERM. (Wednesday through Friday) Issued at 355 PM EST Tue Nov 30 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Messy weather Wednesday with off and on lake effect/clipper systems beyond that .

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

This last morning of November . yet another clipper is making its way through the Great Lakes . with the main low pressure center well to our north over Hudson Bay . a weak frontal boundary stretching from Lake Huron down into Ohio, and then back into the southern Plains. A second cold front is slowly making its way across the western UP as of 15z . which follows the thermal gradient aloft back to the northwest to our next system . a surface low in central Alberta . on the cusp of a 140+kt upper level jet max entering the flow from the Pacific with plenty of moisture across the northwestern US.

Going into Wednesday morning . the next in our parade of clipper systems will move into the area . as a shortwave slides through the Great Lakes through the day Wednesday. Warm advection will quickly commence behind this clipper . as another area of energy, associated with that strong upper level jet upstream, dives eastsoutheastward through the flow As this slides in. will look for a return to cold advection for a time, which should result in lake effect returning as well, for later Thursday into Friday Meanwhile. well upstream over the central Pacific . a bit of energy gets cut off between Hawaii and Alaska ahead of the East Asian jet . ultimately serving to throw a wrench in the otherwise nearly zonal flow across the CONUS through the end of the short term . though will be watching another niblet of energy swing through our region on Friday as well.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Messy precipitation Wednesday into Thursday . winds Wednesday and Thursday . return of Lake effect Thursday . additional precip Friday .

As a niblet of energy moves through the flow Wednesday morning . will look for a warm front to swing through the region early Wednesday ahead of a weak circulation crossing the western UP. This circulation ultimately weakens further and becomes absorbed into the troughing along the baroclinic zone extending back to our northwest in central Manitoba. Warm advection will be the name of the game, as winds become south to southwesterly through the day. Deeper moisture crosses the region, particularly across our Northern CWA (i e., E UP and Tip of the Mitt) early Wednesday. collocated with some upper level divergence from the left exit region of the upper level jet poised to our northwest Additionally. looks like there may be some southwest-flow boundary layer convergence to contend with across the eastern UP . as fetch will be nearly the full length of Lake Michigan . so will have to keep an eye on that for some lake enhancement of precipitation early Tuesday for eastern Upper. The moisture and best upper level divergence crosses the region from west to east through the afternoon, with deepest moisture looking to remain across the UP/Northern CWA until later in the afternoon/evening. Model soundings suggest the mid-levels may try to dry out for a time after some initial top-down saturation . so will have to keep an eye on this too, in case we lose cloud ice until more mid/upper-level moisture moves in . which would be an annoying drizzly/freezing drizzly situation again. Also . as we melt the snowpack . with the warm-ish, moist airmass moving overhead Wednesday into Wednesday night . would not be surprised to see some fog develop, though this will depend on how much winds stay up. Will leave this out of the forecast for now, but will have to keep an eye on this going forward.

Going into Wednesday night . the warm air floods in ahead of a deepening surface low to our north . with a further tightening pressure gradient. Will have to keep an eye on this for winds/marine concerns, as this setup would suggest a better potential for gales than today . though we will be warm advecting ahead of the system, which may keep some of the stronger winds from mixing down initially However. as cold advection commences Thursday behind a couple of surface fronts . will have to keep an eye out for better chances of mixing down those stronger winds aloft with this tightly wound surface system.

With that warm advection will come warmer temperatures . with the 0C line at 850mb moving through Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. Currently, it looks like the 0C line may flirt with the UP . suggesting that there may be more of a potential for mixed precipitation up there Elsewhere, across Northern Lower. will look for more liquid than frozen precip Wednesday night with the push of warm air. It will be an unpleasant night either way you slice it . whether rain or rain/snow . with the breezier winds around.

Thursday . as a couple surface troughs swing through behind the deepening surface low scooting by to our north. We look to remain in the left exit region of the upper level jet Thursday as it dives through the flow . though best divergence will be departing with time as the trough and surface low depart. Cold advection will commence at some point Thursday . allowing the lake machine to kick on again . as 850mb temps fall to around -7 to -10C by Thursday night Attm. model soundings don't look terribly impressive for lake effect behind this system . but given northwest flow cold advection over the still warm lakes . lake effect will remain possible through the end of the week . with the best pushes of moisture coming with the surface fronts moving through.

Next clipper system will be quick to dive through the flow Friday . as additional moisture rides the baroclinic zone into the region. Will have to keep an eye on how this changes going forward . as guidance has been having trouble getting a good handle on the last few of these pesky little buggers.

LONG TERM. (Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 355 PM EST Tue Nov 30 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Watching potential system for late weekend .

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

As we go into Friday night . with the upper level jet more or less right overhead . we'll be for the most part on the clipper system highway going into the start of the weekend That being said. as the upstream pattern amplifies with that cutoff low over the central Pacific . will ultimately look for the downstream pattern across the CONUS to amplify as well. Though there are still some differences . guidance is hinting at a slightly deeper trough developing across the central CONUS for the latter half of the weekend Will keep an eye on this going forward. as guidance is still a touch unclear on how this system will evolve . but it could be a little more interesting than the last few clippers. Otherwise . beyond this . guidance diverges further, though there seems to be a trend attm towards troughing developing across the western US, which could lead to continued active weather in the coming days if it holds.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 600 PM EST Tue Nov 30 2021

Upstream surface ridge axis will build into Michigan tonight . bringing and end to scattered light lake effect rain and snow showers this evening. Our next chance of precip will develop by around midday Wednesday along and ahead of a warm front scheduled to swing thru our state. Overall conditions will remain low VFR/MVFR thru the 24 hour TAF forecast period. W/NW winds of 10 to 20 kts with some higher gusts this evening will diminish overnight and then shift to the south and strengthen to 15 to 25 kts on Wednesday.

MARINE. Issued at 355 PM EST Tue Nov 30 2021

W to nw winds will diminish and back tonight, with any localized gale conditions ending by midnight. Only a short lull in sub- advisory conditions late overnight into early Wednesday. By midday Wed, increasingly s to sw winds will pushing advisory conditions again on all waters. Have extended SCA's all the way out thru Thursday, as outside of late tonight it looks like December will begin on the windy side.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . GALE WARNING until midnight EST tonight for LHZ347-348. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EST Thursday for LHZ345-346-349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EST Thursday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. LS . GALE WARNING until midnight EST tonight for LSZ321-322.

NEAR TERM . JZ SHORT TERM . FEF LONG TERM . FEF AVIATION . MR MARINE . JZ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 2 mi56 min W 18G23 39°F 1015.9 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 17 mi56 min WNW 19G23 39°F 1016.6 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 22 mi54 min WNW 8G12 38°F 25°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI4 mi40 minWNW 15 G 2010.00 miOvercast38°F28°F68%1016.2 hPa
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI21 mi41 minNW 6 G 1810.00 miMostly Cloudy37°F26°F65%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMBL

Wind History from MBL (wind in knots)
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This dayE5E4SE7SE8--------00000W13W12W14W16W14NW12
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1 day agoNW14
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N5NE3NW8W5W70W7W7W4W3E3E3SW5S654S4SE45SE5
2 days agoE6E6E3000000NW9NW14W16
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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