Thursday, September23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Tawas City, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 7:32PM Thursday September 23, 2021 10:24 PM EDT (02:24 UTC) Moonrise 7:56PMMoonset 8:57AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ349 Sturgeon Pt To Alabaster Mi- 1000 Pm Edt Thu Sep 23 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am edt Friday...
Overnight..West wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Southwest wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ349 Expires:202109241000;;081643 FZUS53 KAPX 240200 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1000 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ349-241000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tawas City, MI
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location: 44.27, -83.52     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 232301 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 701 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

NEAR TERM. (Through Tonight) Issued at 1259 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

Showery and Cool Weather Continues Tonight

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Vertically stacked, and hence filling, low pressure making now steady north progress across southeast lower Michigan early this afternoon. Attendant deformation and increasingly pinched off elevated warm conveyor belt helping drive showers back northwest across the area . although rain amounts have remained fairly light (mostly under half an inch) as that warm conveyor belt weakens and dry air begins to get more entrained into the system. Winds remain a bit gusty out of the north and northeast, and when combined with those showers and clouds, has again kept temperatures several degrees below normal . with current readings mostly in the upper 40s to lower 50s (no doubt actually feels several degrees colder).

Low pressure will continue to make steady northeast progress tonight . reaching vicinity North Channel by sunrise Friday. Secondary shortwave trough expected to dive into the northern Plains late tonight . with this system slated to bring our next round of showers Friday night as it crosses the region.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges:

Addressing lingering showers and overnight temperature trends.

Details:

Expect main band of rain to continue to pivot northwest the remainder of this afternoon . decreasing in organization and intensity in the process as main moist conveyor belt gets shunted well off to our east. Scattered showers will continue much of tonight however within remnant deeper moisture of decaying deformation axis. May even see a bit of Lake Michigan moisture contribution as winds back northwest and shallow inversion top temperatures dip to the low to mid single digits. Aggressive drying arrives later tonight from the southwest, likely ending the shower threat for areas south of the Grand Traverse Bay region toward morning. Low levels of the atmosphere will remain well mixed tonight, again preventing temperatures from dropping to their full potential (like what occurred just to our northwest last night when reading dipped well down into the 30s), with overnight lows once again mainly in the 40s.

SHORT TERM. (Friday through Sunday) Issued at 345 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

. Nice Friday then Showery and Cooler .

High impact weather: None is expected.

Upper level low pressure will continue to move away to the north taking clouds and showers along with it Friday. Just a few lingering showers possible early across eastern upper and far northeast lower. It'll be warmer with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s. A fast moving cold front with then move across the region Friday night accompanied by a line of showers. Perhaps a few lingering showers Saturday, especially in the morning as weak short waves move through the flow. It then turns briefly cold enough for northwest flow lake effect rain showers Saturday night. Models vary on the details of Sunday but the combination of weak short waves and warm advection will continue chances for rain showers (especially across northern zones). Highs over the weekend will be cooler with upper 50s to mid 60s expected. Lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s. It will be breezy through much of this time.

LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 345 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

. Fairly Nice Early Autumn Weather .

High impact weather potential: None is expected.

Extended models are coming into better agreement that upper level ridging takes over and strengthens through the period. This is expected to bring a rain free and mild stretch of weather. Highs will be well in the 60s to the low 70s with lows in the 40s.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 700 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

Vertically stacked low pressure stalled over the Thumb area will slowly lift thru Lake Huron tonight and to the Ontario/Quebec border on Friday . filling as it does so. Widespread rain showers and MVFR/IFR conditions will continue to impact all of Northern Lower Michigan thru tonight. Showers will come to an end early Friday morning . with conditions slowly improving to low VFR by around midday Friday. North winds will continue to diminish to around 10 kts this evening . and then shift to the W/NW overnight into early Friday.

MARINE. Issued at 1259 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

Decaying low pressure will continue to move northeast tonight, steadily backing winds to a northwest direction in the process. Very unstable over-water conditions and a lingering pressure gradient will continue to produce small craft advisory conditions on several of our nearshore waters. Winds continue to back to a southwest direction on Friday ahead of our next approaching cold front. Focus for strongest winds, again likely producing small craft conditions, centers on northern Lake Michigan. Southwest to west winds, at times quite gusty, continue right through Saturday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ017- 018-020-024>026-030-031-036-042-098-099. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ347>349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EDT Friday for LMZ323-342- 344>346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EDT Friday for LSZ321.

NEAR TERM . mb SHORT TERM . AS LONG TERM . AS AVIATION . MR MARINE . mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 4 mi45 min NNW 9.9 G 14 52°F 1006.8 hPa
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 17 mi45 min W 18 G 21 53°F 1007.1 hPa
45163 20 mi45 min WNW 16 G 19 55°F 2 ft1007.7 hPa
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 34 mi85 min WNW 15 G 17 52°F 1006.4 hPa (+1.0)

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI15 mi30 minNW 910.00 miRain52°F52°F100%1006.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOSC

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNW9N13
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2 days agoS8S10S13
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NW8NW9NW4NW5N6N5NW4N7N4

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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