Tuesday, September28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
East Tawas, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 7:23PM Tuesday September 28, 2021 9:42 PM EDT (01:42 UTC) Moonrise 10:39PMMoonset 2:07PM Illumination 48% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ349 Sturgeon Pt To Alabaster Mi- 908 Pm Edt Tue Sep 28 2021
Overnight..Light winds. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Light winds. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..East wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ349 Expires:202109290915;;338197 FZUS53 KAPX 290108 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 908 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ349-290915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Tawas, MI
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location: 44.29, -83.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 290107 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 907 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021

UPDATE. Issued at 904 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021

Band of mid and upper level clouds continues across eastern upper and northeast lower Michigan within 90+ knot upper jet core. Expect these clouds to gradually thin tonight. Otherwise, dry weather and light wind regime continues with surface high pressure centered right overhead. Clouds will likely have some influence on temperature trends through the early morning hours, with parts of eastern upper/northeast lower likely staying a bit milder than they would otherwise. Still looking like widespread 40s, with more than likely some isolated upper 30s in our traditional ice box locations.

NEAR TERM. (Through Tonight) Issued at 303 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021

. Cool lows, patchy fog tonight .

High Impact Weather Potential: Low

Pattern Synopsis:

A closed upper-level low will pivot south over Quebec as an embedded jet max on the backside of the associated trough digs across the eastern Great Lakes tonight. Upstream, ridging will continue to amplify and slide into the Midwest. Subsidence at the inflection point of these features will continue to build surface high pressure across Ontario and the Great Lakes heading into Wednesday.

Forecast/Details:

Pleasant early fall weather will continue across northern Michigan through tonight. With aforementioned high pressure in place, sunny/clear skies are anticipated through the near term with some high clouds moving across NE portions of the CWA into tonight. The main focus will once again be low temps and fog overnight. Clear skies and calm winds will be conducive to efficient radiational cooling, helping to drop temps into the low to mid-40s away from the lakeshores once again tonight. Some localized spots may see temps drop into the 30s as cold air pools into relatively low-lying areas across interior northern lower. Patchy fog will likely accompany these cool temps late tonight/early Wednesday morning. Aforementioned high clouds may prevent fog development across parts of NE lower and eastern upper, as well as keeping lows slightly warmer across the same area.

SHORT TERM. (Wednesday through Friday) Issued at 303 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021

. Pristine Conditions Continue .

High impact weather: None is expected.

Increasing ridging through the period as an Omega Block builds slowly eastward from the eastern Plains states into the western Great Lakes. This system will ensure more very nice early fall weather conditions through the end of the week. Expect mostly clear skies with the exception of increasing clouds Friday afternoon and possible patchy fog at night. Winds are expected to be light with warm days and cool nights. Daytime temperatures will be several degrees above normal with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s and lows in the 40s.

LONG TERM. (Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 303 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021

. Increasing Shower Chances and Turning Cooler .

High impact weather potential: None is expected.

The pattern becomes rather convoluted/chaotic. The main issue is how Pacific energy and a cutoff upper level low evident on water vapor imagery over the Four Corners region impacts the Omega Block in place across the Great Lakes. In addition, a Rex Block is progged to form to our north across central Canada. How all these players interact is a rather complex puzzle and extended models vary on the details. Model consensus parks a trough across the region this weekend into early next week. Therefore, will increase chances for showers through the period as well as to cool off temperatures to near or slightly below normal starting Sunday. Forecast confidence is on the low side so changes will likely be necessary by later shifts.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 736 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021

Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes will keep winds light and VFR CIGs in place for the majority of the period. Once again, clear skies and calm winds tonight will likely lead to patchy fog across the area, although some mid cloud moving through may interrupt fog development. The main focus will be on PLN and mbL once again as drops to IFR/LIFR VSBYs are possible at times late tonight and early Wednesday morning with FG/BR. Similar to today, any FG/BR will burn off quickly after sunrise with diurnal mixing, returning to VFR conditions across all TAF sites. Local lake breeze development expected Wednesday afternoon at all taf locations.

MARINE. Issued at 303 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021

High pressure over the region will keep winds light with minimal wave action through the middle of the week. An increase in easterly flow is expected Wednesday night into Thursday, but gusts should remain below SCY thresholds. Precip-free conditions should persist through the remainder of this week.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . mb NEAR TERM . DJC SHORT TERM . AS LONG TERM . AS AVIATION . mb MARINE . DJC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 3 mi62 min SE 2.9 G 5.1 58°F 1017.9 hPa
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 19 mi62 min E 8 G 8.9 59°F 1017.6 hPa
45163 22 mi42 min ESE 3.9 G 5.8 59°F 1 ft1018.8 hPa (-0.0)
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 36 mi42 min E 4.1 G 5.1 60°F 1016.9 hPa (+0.6)
KP58 41 mi47 min Calm 53°F 1017.2 hPa49°F
45162 49 mi42 min SE 1.9 G 3.9 60°F 1017.4 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI12 mi47 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy51°F45°F80%1017.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOSC

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3NW3N4CalmNW5NW3NW4CalmNW5CalmNW5NW4N7NE8NE8NE6NE3E5E5E6SE5CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmS3SW5SW9SW9SW8SW7W5SW4SW5NW5N6NE6NE11NE8NE7NE4NE6NE8NE6NE4Calm
2 days agoSW5SW6SW5NW4SW5SW4SW7SW8SW6SW6SW5SW5W7W5SW7S5SW6S6S8S7SW6SW3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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