Wednesday, January19, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Parkdale, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 4:44PM Wednesday January 19, 2022 2:43 AM CST (08:43 UTC) Moonrise 7:19PMMoonset 9:40AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ346 Manistee To Point Betsie Mi- 335 Am Est Wed Jan 19 2022
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots. Gusts up to 30 knots. Chance of snow early in the morning, then numerous snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 7 to 10 feet subsiding to 6 to 9 feet in the morning. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Tonight..Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots. Patchy blowing snow. Numerous snow showers. Waves 5 to 8 feet.
Thursday..North wind 10 to 20 knots. Chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday night..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ346 Expires:202201191645;;613924 FZUS53 KAPX 190835 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 335 AM EST Wed Jan 19 2022 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ346-191645-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Parkdale, MI
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location: 44.31, -86.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 190821 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 321 AM EST Wed Jan 19 2022

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 318 AM EST Wed Jan 19 2022

. Lake effect snow ramp up today .

High Impact Weather Potential: Lake effect snow showers today through tonight, most widespread across the typical snow belts northwest lower and eastern upper MI. Some areas of blowing snow as well, especially through the daytime hours.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Low pressure currently sits north of the Soo early this morning with a cold front quickly crossing northern Michigan This boundary will continue to race east over the next couple of hours . completely clearing the forecast area by 12z. Said low pressure treks to near the On/Qc border by mid- morning before quickly racing father east beyond that. Strong cold air advection becomes the rule today with the thermal trough axis crossing the northern Great Lakes tonight. As a result, lake effect snow showers will be the rule -- initially in the typical west- northwest flow locales this morning before winds veer more northwesterly this afternoon into tonight.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Snow amounts, gusty winds and falling temperatures.

A return to more typical northern Michigan winter weather expected today a reinforcing shot of cold air will bring an extended period of lake effect snow today through Thursday. Marginal over-lake instability early this morning is expected to become more impressive through the day as H8 temps fall to the upper teens to near 20 C below zero by mid-late afternoon right on into tonight. Inversion heights early this morning around 3-4 kft combined with a loss of nearly all synoptic moisture above that level would suggest that lake effect is rather slow to ramp up with primarily light/isolated snow showers/flurries initially. Ice cover across northern Lake MI certainly worth a mention in that it'll likely limit snow shower activity across the tip of the mitt early in the day. Parameters gradually become more favorable by late morning into the afternoon associated with increased support from surface troughing sliding across the area. Inversion heights grow to around 5 kft, omega becomes pegged kin a deepening DGZ, with some hints that subtle moisture returns above the inversion. However, during this time frame, winds veer more northwesterly, focusing the most widespread/heaviest snow showers from near Grand Traverse Bay to US- 131 in northwest lower and across western Chippewa/Mackinac counties in eastern upper. Those winds remain in place through the evening, eventually taking on just a slightly more northerly component during the second half of the overnight, but generally keeping the steadiest snow showers focused across those same areas.

With respect to accumulations, generally an inch or less through the daytime hours today for most. Exception to that would be from near the Grand Traverse Bay region to US-131 where some localized 1-3" amounts are possible. Despite relatively minor amounts by northern MI standards, snow combined with winds gusting as high as 30 mph will likely result in some patchy blowing snow and locally hazardous travel in some areas. Gustiness does diminish this evening and especially overnight, but additional accumulations expected to generally range from 1-3" again near the Grand Traverse Bay region. Some localized amounts of 3-5" certainly not out of the question in any heavier banding susceptible to Lake Superior preconditioning. In terms of headlines, after coordination with GRR will go ahead and issue a long duration winter wx advisory for Kalkaska/Missaukee counties and points west. Did extend part of Chippewa County into early this afternoon with more widespread lake effect/blowing snow expected early in the day with better snow accums expected across Luce County and west.

Temperatures expected to fall throughout the day into tonight with early day 20s falling into the teens for most. Wind chills today in the single digits to near zero . even a bit colder across eastern upper. Cold overnight lows expected to range from the single digits to teens below zero across eastern Chip/Mack and near zero to low single digits away from lake effect in northern lower. Slightly "warmer" in the aforementioned northwest flow locales . likely bottoming out in the low teens.

SHORT TERM. (Thursday through Friday) Issued at 318 AM EST Wed Jan 19 2022

. LES Diminishes Thursday, Light LES Friday .

High Impact Weather Potential . LES continues into Thursday and Friday, but impactful is probably just during the day Thursday.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast and Possible Impacts . Thursday, the NNW to NW flow looks like the best idea, with the best band probably forming east of TVC, and maybe in Kalkaska. The models are in good agreement with the NNW wind. So will expect some moderate bands, with it being heavy at times through 00z/Fri. Thursday night, drier air and the winds backing to the WNW occur during the evening. This would limit the fetch with the ice cover on northern Lake Michigan. The ridge center moves SE of the forecast area, and the winds over N Lake Michigan backs to the SW and with the 850 mb temperatures still about -15 to -18C LES will probably be scattered along the Lake Michigan shores of NW Lower and E Upper. However, the amounts should remain minor to light as the dry air in the 850-700 mb layer continues at <50%. Friday, the ridge axis moves into the Lower Great Lakes, and the return flow over Lake Michigan should continue to minor to light amounts into E Upper and along the lakeshore of NW Lower. Although the RH in the 850-700 mb layer, look to be <20%. so minor amounts would be most likely. Even through Friday night into Saturday morning. The moisture doesn't start to increase with the next system until about 11z/Saturday, so the snow amounts should remain minor overnight.

LONG TERM. (Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 318 AM EST Wed Jan 19 2022

High Impact Weather Potential . LES and Clipper systems could bring moderate amounts of snow for impacts.

Extended (Saturday through Tuesday) . Saturday, The GFS and CMC has a decent snow that evolves into a good Lake effect event, while the ECMWF has lighter snow amounts initially, but has a similar LES event through the rest of Saturday night. The models look to target the "Big 5" region, but think that there will be limited amounts of snow in Charlevoix and N Otsego counties as the ice cover in N Lake Michigan will limit the bands on the north side of this flow pattern. Sunday, The winds slowly veer to the NNW and the LES continues into the evening. Sunday night, the next system moves into the region with good moisture (above 60% RH) and S to SSW winds. 850 mb temperatures are still good for a stronger lake enhancement as the GFS depicts in NW lower and the western part of Mackinac county. Then the clipper moves into the region by very early Monday morning. Monday, The clipper moves through the region causing the light to moderate amounts of snow, to transition light to moderate LES, but it looks like a N flow pattern, most of the snow should remain along the Lake Michigan shore, south of Empire/Leland, and down Grand Traverse Bay. Tuesday, the ridge center looks like it moves south of forecast area, pushing any N flow bands into the region on W winds, and possibly producing some limited west bands which would produce minor snow amounts.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1149 PM EST Tue Jan 18 2022

Mainly MVFR.

994mb low pressure is just north of MQT. A cold front is progressing across eastern WI, and will cross northern lower MI overnight. Widespread -SN has ended. Patchy -DZ/-FZDZ will develop overnight, with and just behind the cold front. On Wednesday, as colder air pushes in, precip will turn to lake effect snow showers.

Gusty winds will veer w by Wed morning, and nw in the afternoon.

MARINE. Issued at 318 AM EST Wed Jan 19 2022

Winds will veer more west-northwesterly early this morning behind a cold front currently crossing northern Michigan. Winds continue to veer more northwesterly this afternoon through tonight. Primarily small craft advisory conditions for northern Michigan's nearshore waters, but a few gale gusts remain possible on Lake Michigan with better chances over portions of Lake Huron. Ongoing gale warnings remain in place into this afternoon. Winds diminish this evening - tonight as high pressure oozes into the area from the west, ultimately resulting in a relaxing pressure gradient.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Thursday for MIZ020-025>027-031>033. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ086. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 10 PM EST this evening for LHZ345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 1 AM EST Thursday for LHZ349. GALE WARNING until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ346>348. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 10 PM EST this evening for LMZ323-341- 342. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 1 AM EST Thursday for LMZ344>346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 10 PM EST this evening for LSZ321-322.

NEAR TERM . MG SHORT TERM . JL LONG TERM . JL AVIATION . JZ MARINE . MG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 5 mi63 min NE 19G24 37°F 1002.4 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 26 mi61 min W 12G21 38°F 29°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI3 mi47 minW 1410.00 miOvercast37°F30°F76%1002.1 hPa
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI22 mi48 minW 12 G 1810.00 miOvercast37°F30°F75%1000.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMBL

Wind History from MBL (wind in knots)
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2 days ago0E643SE4SE4SE5SE6SE8SE76S5SE44SE4SE30SE300E3003

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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