Sunday, January16, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Alsea, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:43AMSunset 5:02PM Sunday January 16, 2022 5:03 PM PST (01:03 UTC) Moonrise 3:45PMMoonset 7:16AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ255 Coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 200 Pm Pst Sun Jan 16 2022
Tonight..E wind 5 kt. Wind waves E 1 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 6 ft at 13 seconds.
Mon..SW wind 5 kt. Wind waves sw 1 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 6 ft at 12 seconds.
Mon night..S wind 5 to 10 kt, rising to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves S 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 6 ft at 12 seconds. Chance of rain.
Tue..SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves sw 1 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 6 ft at 11 seconds. Chance of rain.
Tue night..W wind 5 kt, backing to S after midnight. Wind waves W 1 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the S at 4 seconds after midnight. W swell 5 ft at 12 seconds.
Wed..S wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell 4 ft. Chance of rain.
Wed night..S wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 5 ft. Chance of rain.
Thu..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 7 ft.
Fri..NE wind 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 7 ft.
PZZ200 200 Pm Pst Sun Jan 16 2022
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pressure will continue into Monday afternoon, before a weak front pushes across the coastal waters Monday evening into Monday night. High pressure will return in the wake of this front until the next system impacts the area on Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Alsea, OR
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location: 44.38, -123.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 162217 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 213 PM PST Sun Jan 16 2022

SYNOPSIS. A couple weak storm systems skirting the region will bring light valley rain and high mountain snow late Monday through Thursday. Otherwise, high pressure will result in stagnant air conditions and patchy dense fog at times through Monday and then likely beginning again next Friday.

SHORT TERM. Tonight through Wednesday . Satellite imagery reveals plenty of low clouds and fog in the valleys of Oregon and Washington this afternoon. Easterly pressure gradient forces peaked around 5-6mb between KDLS and KTTD this afternoon. This has resulted in east winds picking up at KTTD this afternoon with skies clearing between KTTD and KUAO. What clearing is occurring along the periphery of this region should be short lived this evening. The one caveat is that HREF and other model guidance suggests mid and high level clouds may be too thick to allow enough radiational cooling for this to occur. Have hedged towards more cloud cover than not returning, if not persisting, for most valley locations tonight, but this uncertainty does lead to more uncertainty in how Monday temperatures will play out. Most model guidance suggests valley temperatures should moderate and climb a few degrees above average on Monday. However, the NAM, which has tended towards depicting the cooler interior valley temperatures better than other available model guidance suggests another cool day is in store for the interior valleys. Given surface winds should be light on Monday with the surface ridge axis centered over the region, opted towards persistence and the NAM scenario and held most valley temperatures below most model and NBM guidance given mixing will continue to be poor.

Ensemble guidance continues to come into better agreement a weak shortwave trough will brush the region and drop a weakening front southeastward into the area Monday night into Tuesdsay. Expect light valley rain and high mountain snow to shift southeastward across the area during this time with few impacts expected.

Shortwave ridging should then build northeastward into the Pacific Northwest late Tuesday into Wednesday. Uncertainty in rain chances grow during this time as ensemble members vary on how quickly a warm front and an area of light rain will lift back northeastward across the area. Nonetheless, areas farther north and west certainly have a much higher chance of seeing an extended period of wet and soupy weather. Fortunately, even the wettest ensemble members produce only an inch or so of rain at KAST so the threat of flooding occurring in our CWA through Wednesday appears low at this time. /Neuman

LONG TERM. Wednesday night through Sunday . Models and their ensembles are in general agreement a shortwave ridge will give way to a weak shortwave trough passing quickly across the Pacific Northwest Wednesday night into Thursday. This will likely result in another round of light valley rain and high mountain snow across the region. The main reason PoPs are not higher is that there remains some question as to which 6 or 12 hour period precipitation will fall.

Otherwise, models and their ensembles are in good agreement shortwave ridging will build back over the Pacific Northwest beginning Friday and continuing into next weekend. This will likely bring another extended stretch of dry weather and stagnant air conditions. There does look to be a period of mild offshore flow to begin the event, which may delay the period of more stagnant air conditions until later in the weekend. In addition, this may also produce a mild day, particularly along the coast Friday into Saturday with high temperatures possibly eclipsing 60F. /Neuman

AVIATION. 00Z TAFs: At 20Z Sunday, satellite and surface weather observations showed widespread low stratus and patchy fog continuing across the interior lowlands, except for the far northern Willamette Valley where low clouds have already scattered out. Conversely, locations in the central and southern Willamette Valley should struggle to break out of the stratus deck today. This will be especially true to the south of KSLE, where light northerly surface winds will help maintain the ongoing stratus deck. Expecting KEUG to stay socked in with low stratus through tonight and into tomorrow with periods of dense fog likely. KSLE may stay socked in with low stratus through tonight as well, but there is around a 30-50 percent chance for KSLE to temporarily break out of the status deck between 21-00Z late today before redeveloping this evening. Would also expect fog to redevelop at KSLE tonight, possibly dense at times.

The forecast is trickier for the northern Willamette Valley where increasing east winds have helped scatter out fog/stratus at KTTD and KPDX. Confidence is low if stratus and/or fog will reform at these terminals this evening into tonight. This is because mid and high level clouds will be on the increase this evening and may limit radiational cooling just enough to prevent fog and/or low stratus from redeveloping at these terminals. The forecast is most uncertain at KHIO, which has had a more difficult time breaking out of the status and fog due to being sheltered from the east winds. There is the potential for stratus to linger through tonight at KHIO. Would expect at least some patchy fog in the northern Willamette Valley tonight, with more widespread fog in the central and southern valley.

For detailed regional Pac NW aviation weather information, go online to: https://weather.gov/zse

KPDX AND APPROACHES . Increasing mid and high clouds this evening will most likely prevent fog and low stratus from redeveloping at the terminal, however confidence is low as it will depend on how dense the mid clouds are and if there are any breaks in cloud cover tonight. Expect VFR flight conditions through tonight, unless skies end up clearing out more than expected this evening and fog is able to redevelop. -TK

MARINE. A weak frontal passage on Monday evening will bring a westerly wind shift, but max wind gusts with this front are only expected to top out between 15-20 kt. A predominantly swell driven sea state is expected to continue through tonight with a westerly swell around 6 to 7 ft and a dominant wave period around 12 seconds.

Conditions will continue to remain relatively calm through the early part of the upcoming week due to high pressure. A frontal system looks to impact our waters Wednesday, bringing increasing southerly winds. This front has the potential to bring marginal small craft wind gusts, but at this time the most likely outcome appears to be gusts to 20 kt. -TK

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Air Stagnation Advisory until noon PST Monday for Central Willamette Valley-Greater Portland Metro Area-Lower Columbia-South Willamette Valley.

WA . Air Stagnation Advisory until noon PST Monday for Greater Vancouver Area-I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz County.

PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for Columbia River Bar.



www.weather.gov/portland

Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland www.twitter.com/NWSPortland


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR 29 mi64 min E 4.1G7 54°F 50°F1018.8 hPa (-1.8)
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 30 mi64 min E 7G8.9 53°F
46097 41 mi194 min 47°F 50°F1019.6 hPa
46050 - STONEWALL BANKS - 20NM West of Newport, OR 54 mi44 min N 7.8G9.7 51°F1018.5 hPa

Wind History for South Beach, Yaquina River, OR
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Last 24 hrN3
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G14
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Corvallis, Corvallis Municipal Airport, OR19 mi68 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist38°F37°F97%1021.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCVO

Wind History from CVO (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Toledo, Yaquina Bay and River, Oregon
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Toledo
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:05 AM PST     6.60 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:49 AM PST     3.61 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:18 AM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:48 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:28 AM PST     8.66 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:45 PM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:03 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:57 PM PST     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Toledo, Yaquina Bay and River, Oregon, Tide feet
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6.2
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6.6
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6.3
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5.5
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4.6
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3.8
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3.6
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6.5
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7.8
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8.6
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4.7
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2.8
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4.6


Tide / Current Tables for Winant, Yaquina Bay and River, Oregon
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Winant
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:39 AM PST     6.72 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:26 AM PST     3.93 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:19 AM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:48 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:02 AM PST     8.81 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:45 PM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:03 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:34 PM PST     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Winant, Yaquina Bay and River, Oregon, Tide feet
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5.3


Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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