Thursday, October28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Hermon, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:34AMSunset 5:58PM Thursday October 28, 2021 4:16 PM EDT (20:16 UTC) Moonrise 10:48PMMoonset 1:46PM Illumination 46% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Expires:202110282115;;922799 Fzus61 Kbuf 281745 Glfsl Forecast For The Saint Lawrence River Including The Thousand Islands Region National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 145 Pm Edt Thu Oct 28 2021 Slz022-024-282115- Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 145 Pm Edt Thu Oct 28 2021
This afternoon..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly Sunny.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 knots or less. Mainly clear.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. Mostly Sunny.
Friday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely overnight.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Rain.
Sunday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Rain during the day.
Monday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest less than 10 knots. Partly cloudy.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hermon, NY
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location: 44.45, -75.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 282001 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 401 PM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021

SYNOPSIS. Quiet weather will continue through Friday with high pressure building southward from Quebec. A front will approach the region Friday night, bringing a swath of rain Saturday into Saturday night. Rain will taper off into scattered showers by Sunday morning which will last on and off through the evening. Monday will be dry as brief high pressure redevelops over the region, but chances for showers quickly return Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 338 PM EDT Thursday . High pressure in control through Friday will keep the weather dry for much of the near term. The main forecast challenge will continue to be the potential for some low clouds and fog as plenty of low-level moisture is still lurking around. For now though, observing widespread sunny skies this afternoon, which will stay clear to start the night tonight. This will allow temperatures to quickly cool below crossover temps and thus expecting fairly widespread fog development . especially over climatologically favored valley locations. Meanwhile, will see continued low- level moisture advection on prolonged northeasterly surface flow down the Saint Lawrence Valley, which will set the stage for another night of low stratus in the valley. Chilly overnight lows are expected, though rate of cooling will rapidly decline once fog/stratus develops towards Friday morning. Haven't gone quite as cold as some of the MOS guidance due to expected fog/low stratus development, but nonetheless have forecast overnight lows in the mid 20s to low 30s. Any areas that stay clear overnight could dip lower with winds trending light.

Friday looks to be a great day overall with fog generally eroding by 10 AM. Ample sunshine expected for the rest of the day with high temperatures in the low to mid 50s. The weather then turns a little more active Friday night into Saturday as a front approaches from the southwest. Have slowed down the onset of rainfall by a few hours due to the amount of dry air in the mid-levels that will take some time to initially saturate. Current thinking for the timing of the start of the rain is around sunrise Saturday morning for the northern Adirondacks and southern Vermont, and then mid morning for areas further north. See Short Term discussion for more details on the weekend system.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. As of 400 PM EDT Thursday . No major changes have been made to the weekend forecast. Still expecting a rainy day across the North Country on Saturday with high temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Recent model guidance is showing that there may be a brief lull in rainfall during mid- morning on Saturday attributed to an intrusion of mid-level dry air. Therefore, rainfall chances have been decreased slightly during this time frame, but widespread rain is expected to redevelop again by afternoon. The greatest amount of rainfall still looks to fall late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, mainly along and east of the southern/central Green Mountains and Essex County, NY. At this time, total rainfall amounts look to be 0.5 to 1 inches across northern New York and northern Vermont while 1 to 1.5 inches across south-central Vermont.

We are still keeping a close eye on the low-level, southeasterly jet of 45-55 knots which will develop Saturday morning and lift across the region through Saturday afternoon and evening. Given the possible lull in rainfall Saturday morning, we could see a brief period of better mixing and thus stronger wind gusts up to 35 mph, mainly along the immediate western slopes of the central/southern Green Mountains. However, by afternoon, few gusts are expected to materialize at the surface given low-level atmospheric stability. Ultimately this means that the stronger wind gusts up to 45 mph will be confined to mountain summits.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 400 PM EDT Thursday . By Sunday rain will begin to taper off in coverage and intensity; however, with the low moving directly overhead on Sunday, scattered rain showers cannot be ruled out. Rainfall chances will dwindle throughout the evening, so at the very least, it shouldn't be a total washout for the trick-or-treaters. Despite the departing coastal low to the east during this time, the North Country won't get into a significantly colder airmass with mid /upper-level flow becoming west to southwesterly as the primary upper low retrogrades to the northwest. Long story short- Sunday will be relatively warm by late October standards with high temperatures in the mid to upper 50s, to near 60 within the Champlain Valley. Overnight temperatures will be fairly mild as well with lows in the low to mid 40s.

Quiet weather then ensues on Monday and will a trend of gradually colder temperatures throughout the week. High temperatures will gradually trend into the 40s with overnight lows dropping below freezing across the North Country. Regarding precipitation chances, there could be a few lake induced rain showers downwind of Lake Ontario (aka Saint Lawrence Valley) on Monday morning. Additional chances for precipitation then arrive late Tuesday into Wednesday with the passage of a shortwave aloft. Given the overnight temperatures are expected to drop below freezing, we could see some snow showers during this time, while locations below 1000 ft elevation are more likely to receive rain or a rain/snow mix.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Through 12Z Friday . VFR conditions expected to last through the first part of overnight with high pressure building in. After 06Z however, will see some lowered flight conditions as areas of fog and low stratus develop. Main area where IFR/low MVFR stratus is expected will once again be the Saint Lawrence Valley, where light northeasterly flow overnight will transport low moisture into the area from Quebec. Looking at IFR/low MVFR conditions at KMSS mainly between 06Z and 14Z. Other TAF sites will see more of a fog threat rather than low stratus, and fog or vicinity fog is possible at all TAF sites after midnight tonight. Highest confidence in dense overnight fog with LIFR/IFR conditions is at KSLK and KMPV. KPBG, KBTV, KEFK and KRUT will be trickier. Some valley fog will be floating around these terminals, which will result in variable flight conditions through the night with occasional reductions to IFR or locally LIFR within any dense fog. In addition, models are hinting at the redevelopment of some low stratus streaming south and west of Lake Champlain, which could potentially impact KPBG with low MVFR/IFR ceilings.

Conditions are expected to improve to widespread VFR between 12Z and 14Z as low stratus/fog erodes after sunrise.

Outlook .

Friday Night: VFR. Chance RA. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA. Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA, Likely SHRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . Duell NEAR TERM . Duell SHORT TERM . Hammond LONG TERM . Hammond AVIATION . Duell


Weather Reporting Stations
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On 03/09/2021 the NDBC primary processing servers were shut off due to a facilities issue. Station pages on the NDBC website are not updating and there is no ETR at this time. We will update this banner as we learn more.
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 28 mi47 min 48°F 61°F1013.8 hPa
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 45 mi47 min 59°F1013.7 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Massena, Massena International-Richards Field, NY36 mi24 minNE 1110.00 miFair50°F36°F59%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMSS

Wind History from MSS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE10NE300NE4NE6NE6NE9NE5NE8NE10E5NE6NE4E8E9E8E14E12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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