Sunrise 5:53 AM   Sunset 8:20 PM Moonrise 3:15 AM   Moonset 3:14 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS63 KMPX 032357 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 657 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Another chance for showers and possible thunderstorms exists this evening through Saturday morning.

- Dry Saturday afternoon through the rest of the weekend with warmer temperatures expected Sunday.

- Unsettled weather pattern next week with more rain chances.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A beautiful Friday has unfolded as sunny skies have allowed temperatures to rise into the 60s across most of the area. Even a few 70s have been observed in southern MN and western WI. It is a little breezy across WI, likely owing to the confluent surface pressure gradient. Clouds are in the process of moving in from the west, however, as our next shortwave arrives tonight. An isolated thunderstorm may occur later this afternoon across western MN but showers are expected to move in from west to east this evening through Saturday morning. They will eventually move east by Saturday afternoon, leaving the remainder of the weekend dry. CAMs have been picking up on the possibility of two heavier areas of rainfall, one from western to central MN and the other in southern to southeastern MN. In these locations, rainfall has a good chance of exceeding 0.5" while a minima of 0.1-0.2" would be in between. The southern band also looks to be convective in nature (judging from non-zero CAPE in RAP soundings) so perhaps a lightning strike or two could occur during Saturday morning. The rest of Saturday looks decent, albeit a bit cooler as clouds will be in the process of clearing. Highs are forecast in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Sunday still looks great with sunny skies, light winds, and highs in the mid to upper 60s.

Monday also continues to look warm (highs in the low to mid 70s)
but, chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase as we progress through the day. Ensemble guidance forecasts a very strong, negatively-tilted trough to eject east of the Rockies (and into the Southern/Central Plains) during Monday. An expansive, moist warm sector created ahead of the trough over the Plains should allow for widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Forecast models show this activity extending all the way north into the Dakotas ahead of a cold front that stems from a deepening surface low in the Northern High Plains. This band of precip is forecast to move east through our region Monday night into Tuesday. While the strongest convection will likely be in the Central Plains, a couple of stronger storms will not be out of the question due to probable strong vertical wind shear and non-zero CAPE. How strong and numerous those storms are will be largely dependent on how much CAPE can be realized, though. The grand ensemble advertises another good chance of at least an accumulating, widespread rain. Western and southern MN currently have a 50% chance of seeing at least 1" of rainfall through Tuesday afternoon. Winds should also be very breezy Monday into Wednesday as NAEFS and EPS ensembles show the surface low deepening enough to achieve climatologically minimum mean SLP over the Northern High Plains.

After Tuesday, it seems like precipitation chances will persist for the majority of next week as the upper-level low cuts off and hangs out over the northern CONUS before moving east. We can expect at least periods of persistent clouds and cooler temperatures underneath the cool air of the cyclonic flow center.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A cold front is gradually progressing southeastward this evening, bringing a swath of rain/virga and a smaller area of weakening CB/TS across east-central MN. Winds will quickly shift out of the NW behind this front, but remain around 5-10kts for most. Cigs will slowly fill in and lower throughout the night as the next rainmaker moves through from west to east.
Most sites will drop to MVFR, with pockets of VFR possible while the main period of rain is underway. Terminals will see a gradual improvement of conditions throughout tomorrow, with VFR likely by tomorrow night for all sites.

KMSP...The front is knocking on the door-step, with a quick wind change expected after its passage. Any rain associated this evening should stay north and west of MSP, however brief periods of sprinkles is not out of the question. Similar to today, winds will become gusty to 20kts tomorrow afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind variable 5 kts becoming SE 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Chance PM MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 15-20G25-30 kts.
TUE...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 15-20G25-30kts.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The continued wet pattern for the next week will also continue to cause rising rivers over the entire HSA. Soils have started to become saturated at upper levels, so runoff is increasing with each rain event, though the onset of the growing season does help along with recovery days between rain events. All told, most tributaries and mainstem rivers will continue a slow rise for at least the next week, with some in the Minnesota and Crow river basins approaching minor flood stage by early next week (Minnesota at Morton already there).

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

La Crosse, WI,