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FXUS63 KMPX 042002 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 302 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Skies gradually clearing from west to east tonight.

- Strong 40 to 50 mph wind gusts possible, especially across Western MN Monday afternoon and overnight.

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms likely Monday night into Tuesday morning.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 257 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

This afternoon through the rest of this weekend... Cloud cover continues to erode from west to east this afternoon. Surface observations clearly defining a boundary between which sites have seen more sunshine (temps near 60, western MN) as compared to everywhere else in the upper 40s to low 50s (all other sites). By this evening into tonight, sky coverage will transition from partly cloudy to mostly clear. The lack of cloud coverage tonight will open the door for a few upper 30s to sneak in mainly north and east of the I-94 corridor. Sunday continues to look drier and warmer. Surface flow will shift from northwesterly to southerly allowing for Sunday's forecasted highs at least 5-7 degrees warmer than where they are today. Other than a few clouds possible in the afternoon, should be a good day to get out and enjoy the weather.

Monday and Tuesday...By Monday, a low deepens over the western CONUS with the eastern periphery of the trough beginning to dig over the central plains, surface low pressure develops over the Rockies and sweeps NNE into the Dakotas. As this occurs, the low will strengthen and increase the pressure gradient between the Dakotas and MN. Winds are expected to become quite gusty between 40-50 mph starting Monday afternoon into early Tuesday especially across western MN. Therefore, wind headline issuance is becoming likely tomorrow. As for precip, enough forcing looks to be present to produce more widespread rain and potentially some thunder. Best thunderstorm chances look to stick to IA and farther south but will depend on how far north the warm front can advance into MN. The focus for best precip chances begin in western MN after dusk Monday and then spreading eastward to the entire region overnight, then lingering through Tuesday mainly for those east of the I-35 corridor. Ensemble guidance maintaining their confidence amongst their memberships for storm total QPF ranging between 0.50 to 1.00" of rain by Tuesday night. Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will reach near 70 each day.

For the latter half of the week...the upper-level trough over the northern plains will be reluctant to depart. A couple of weak shortwaves are possible to develop off of the broader circulation aloft during this period. Thus more chances of precip on Wednesday and Thursday. Forcing does not look as robust on Wednesday as the preceding system but still enough where scattered rainfall could develop. Thursday's shortwave looks a tad more organized and provides better coverage of rain however disagreement between GFS/EC/GEM ensemble tracks macks me more reluctant to sway from NBM probabilities. So maintaining mentions of 30-40 PoPs in forecast grids for now. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler on Thursday with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. By Friday, a deepening ridge over the western CONUS will finally be able to nudge this stubborn northern plains trough eastward and marking the "caboose" of this nearly 7-10-day wave train. Precip chances will dwindle with high pressure returning and temps at or just below normal for this time of year (mid 60s). Looking into the forecast for the first half of the month, h85 temp and precip anomalies match up well with current CPC outlooks as temps remain near normal and under drier conditions.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Main swath of rain has shifted off to the east, thus outside of potentially a brief lingering sprinkle/shower in far eastern MN into western WI, no additional precipitation is expected this duration. Visible satellite imagery shows the stratus deck continuing to slide eastward, with it still holding east of a line from Princeton to Mankato, while points west are breaking out with fair wx cumulus clouds. One by one, TAF sites will have their ceilings erode away to VFR cumulus this afternoon, followed by clearing overnight through Sunday. Breezy NW winds at initialization will diminish this evening then go light/variable overnight through daybreak and into late Sunday morning. For much of central-eastern MN into western WI, a period of pre-dawn MVFR-worthy ground fog is looking likely at the TAF sites early Sunday morning but this should be of limited impact.

KMSP...Low/MVFR stratus looks to hold on through about 20z, with VFR conditions thereafter. Skies will clear out this evening through Sunday morning while winds continue to diminish. There is a decent chance of moisture trapped under the nightly inversion being manifested as ground fog Sunday morning so have included mention of it in this TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. MVFR/-TSRA likely late. Wind SE 20G35 kts.
TUE...VFR. Chance MVFR/-TSRA. Wind SW 15G25 kts.
WED...VFR. Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind 10-15kts.

CLIMATE
Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The continued wet pattern for the next week will also continue to cause rising rivers over the entire HSA. Soils have started to become saturated at upper levels, so runoff is increasing with each rain event, though the onset of the growing season does help along with recovery days between rain events. All told, most tributaries and mainstem rivers will continue a slow rise for at least the next week, with some in the Minnesota and Crow river basins approaching minor flood stage by early next week (Minnesota at Morton already there).

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.

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