Saturday, October16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Stowe, VT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 6:07PM Saturday October 16, 2021 4:33 AM EDT (08:33 UTC) Moonrise 4:54PMMoonset 2:31AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stowe, VT
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location: 44.47, -72.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 160829 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 429 AM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021

SYNOPSIS. A strong cold front will bring widespread showers to the area today. A narrow band of showers and isolated thunderstorms is expected to develop ahead of the front across the northern Adirondacks of New York by early afternoon and move east across Vermont during the remainder of the afternoon hours. Expect strong gusty winds and heavy downpours with any of these showers and storms. Behind the front colder air will move into the region Sunday and Monday with isolated to scattered showers both days and maybe even a few snow showers over the higher terrain on Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 429 AM EDT Saturday . Forecast remains on track for a sharp change in the weather later this afternoon as a strong cold front moves across the area. Before the front moves in we first will have a warm front lift north of the area this morning, which has been responsible for the early morning showers and isolated storms. Eventually the precipitation will become more tied to far northern New York where the cold front will be. The rest of the area will get into the warm sector with high temperatures climbing into the upper 60s to lower 70s. This will help to steepen low level lapse rates and create some instability, but not expecting much. The compensating factor that suggests the potential for some stronger convection will be a strongly sheared environment. Enough instability may develop ahead of the front that allows any showers or storms to produce locally strong wind gusts . 40 to 50 mph . and brief heavy downpours. At this time it looks like a narrow line of convection will form over the northern Adirondacks around 2pm, reach the Champlain Valley around 5pm, and eventually eastern Vermont after 7pm. See no reason to move off the messaging of gusty winds and heavy downpours with this line and will continue this idea in the forecast. Total rainfall amounts today into tonight still look to be in the one half to one inch range. With the stronger flow aloft, channeled flow up the Champlain Valley will result in some southerly wind gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range and a Lake Wind Advisory will also be issued for Lake Champlain.

The precipitation ends from west to east this evening and on Sunday we will start to see an upper level low move down from Canada and into northern New England. Colder air aloft will help to create a greater depth to the dry adiabatic lapse rates and this should be sufficient for isolated to scattered showers developing in the afternoon hours. Not expecting much in the way of precipitation with amounts generally less than a tenth of an inch. High temperatures will be back to seasonal normals with readings in the mid 50s to around 60.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 429 AM EDT Saturday . Scattered rain and summit level snow showers are expected through the night on Sunday as we remain underneath the upper level trough axis. Strong cold air advection through the overnight hours will allow temperatures to drop quickly, even under cloudy skies, with lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Steepening low level lapse rates will help invigorate the shower activity as we head into Monday and start to see some sunshine help create a few hundred J/kg of CAPE. Highs on Monday will be the chilliest of the season with highs only rebounding into the mid 40s to lower 50s. Those with outdoor recreation activities, especially those in higher terrain, should dress appropriately with temperatures at summit level only warming into the lower 30s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 429 AM EDT Saturday . We will see a gradual downward trend in shower activity across the North Country during the day on Tuesday as we switch from northwest flow aloft to a more zonal upper level pattern. Given the more westerly upper level and low level flow, we should see some weak warm air advection Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures climbing back into the mid 50s to lower 60s by Thursday. A developing trough of low pressure is expected to start forming across the Upper Mid- West on Thursday and shift eastward toward the North Country next Friday. This looks like the best chance of rainfall through the extended portion of the forecast but there are still some discrepancies across the global numerical guidance. Right now, it looks like another cold front, not too dissimilar to the one a week prior, with another slug of moisture followed by cooler temperatures. We will be able to start fine tweaking the timing for these showers in the coming days.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Through 06Z Sunday . Widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms have moved into northern New York this morning with IFR visibilities being reported at KMSS. We should see similar flight restrictions moving into KSLK by 8Z but should miss TAF sites further east. Once we can get this wave of precipitation to move through, we should see a mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings through the mid-morning and early afternoon hours. Winds will start increasing by 14Z as southerly gradient winds begin to develop. The strongest winds are expected through the Champlain Valley where gusts up to 35 knots are possible at KBTV. A strong cold front will begin to push into northern New York by 16Z and spread east into Vermont after 21Z. Brief heavy rain is expected at all terminals this afternoon with IFR visibilities and low MVFR ceilings likely. The gusty southerly winds will veer to the west/northwest following the FROPA. Wind shear conditions will develop shortly over the region with a 50 knot low level jet moving overhead. Expect moderate to possibly severe mechanical turbulence below 5000 ft based on the forecast soundings.

Outlook .

Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.

MARINE. A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for Lake Champlain as south winds increase into the 15 to 30 knot range this morning and persist through much of the afternoon. This will create very choppy conditions as waves build to 2 to 5 feet. Wind gusts to 35 knots can also be expected before a cold front moves in late in the day and shifts the winds to the southwest and eventual west. A narrow band of showers and isolated thunderstorms will exist with the front and localized wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph and brief heavy downpours will be possible with any of the showers or storms.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . Evenson NEAR TERM . Evenson SHORT TERM . Clay LONG TERM . Clay AVIATION . Clay MARINE . Evenson


Weather Reporting Stations
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On 03/09/2021 the NDBC primary processing servers were shut off due to a facilities issue. Station pages on the NDBC website are not updating and there is no ETR at this time. We will update this banner as we learn more.
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45195 35 mi63 min 63°F1 ft

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Morrisville-Stowe State Airport, VT6 mi39 minS 34.00 miFog/Mist60°F60°F100%1007.4 hPa
Barre / Montpelier, Knapp State Airport, VT19 mi42 minS 56.00 miRain Fog/Mist65°F62°F90%1008.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMVL

Wind History from MVL (wind in knots)
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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