Thursday, September23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Jericho, VT

Version 3.4
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3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 6:49PM Thursday September 23, 2021 12:55 PM EDT (16:55 UTC) Moonrise 8:13PMMoonset 9:13AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jericho, VT
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location: 44.49, -73     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 231637 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1237 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

SYNOPSIS. Above normal temperatures and occasionally breezy conditions will prevail while we remain sandwiched between a broad low pressure system to our west with strong high pressure just off the Atlantic Coast. Light showers are possible today, mainly over northern New York. This evening into tonight, the front will move through accompanied by a line of moderate to locally heavy rain showers. Once the front moves east, a showery, but more seasonable pattern will unfold for the new week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 1232 PM EDT Thursday . The timing of the occluded front has been nudged up just a bit, based on present radar data. There's also several showers in rows to our south reminiscent of trade wind showers down in the tropics. None of those are reaching our forecast area, but it's an interesting thing to observe. Looking at upstream observations, the forecast looks like it's in excellent shape. Made minor tweaks to the next 24 hours forecast to fine tune ahead of the TAFs. We are observing widespread 15 to 30 mph gusts, and that will likely continue up until the front's crossing. We have reached 84 at BTV, and with that, had nudged the forecast up to 85 earlier. Perhaps we may see it get somewhat warmer still. Have a great day!

Previous discussion . (4 AM) . A deep plume of tropical air will continue to stream northward into our forecast area ahead of a cut off low to our west. A few showers are expected this morning on the western edge of our forecast area . mainly over the Saint Lawrence Valley . but elsewhere expecting a mainly dry morning as the plume of moisture retrogrades to our west this morning. Despite 850 mb southerly flow at 35 to 45 knots early this morning, surface winds will remain generally under 10 knots in lower elevations before sunrise. Between 6 and 8 AM this morning however, expecting breezy winds to increase at the surface as the boundary layer starts to mix out after sunrise. Should see southerly winds 10-20 mph with some occasional gusts up to 30 mph for the remainder of the day today. Temperatures today will be very warm for late September owing to the strong southerly flow. Expecting to top out a degree or two warmer in many locations that yesterday's highs. Look for highs in the lower 80s for the Champlain Valley, northern slopes of the Adirondacks, and the Saint Lawrence Valley. These locations will feel the brunt of the warm air advection and will also see some localized downslope warming especially north of the Adirondacks. Elsewhere, expect highs today in the 70s.

Tonight, the vertically stacked low to our west will finally lift northward from Michigan and into eastern Canada. The system will send a front eastward through our forecast area, bringing a round of moderate to locally heavy rain showers. Rain is expected to arrive in the St. Lawrence Valley late this evening, reach the Adirondacks around midnight tonight, the Champlain Valley around 5-8 AM Friday, the Green Mountains around 7 AM-10 AM Friday, eastern Vermont around 10 AM to noon Friday, the Northeast Kingdom around noon Friday, and then finally exit to the east late Friday afternoon. This timing does reflect a slightly faster shift from the guidance in the frontal passage, but overall forecast thinking remains the same. Several factors lining up to support some moderate to locally heavy rainfall including favorable upper level jet placement, ample moisture advection with high PW values (1-2 standard deviations above climatological norms), and boundary parallel flow that may support some training/backbuilding of cells. However, the earlier timing of the frontal passage will limit instability, which will limit rainfall rates. Overall expecting 0.5 to 1 inch of rain in lower elevations, and 0.75 to 1.5 inches of rain in higher elevations where a southeasterly LLJ will favor some enhancement to the rain showers over southern and eastern slopes of higher terrain. This expected rainfall is well below flash flood guidance and antecedent conditions are dry, indicating the area should be able to handle this forecasted QPF without any widespread flash flooding issues. Furthermore, rivers are still quite low thus no river flooding anticipated.

Overall thunderstorm potential as the front moves through doesn't look great thanks to limited instability. Can't rule out a rumble of thunder overnight tonight in northern NY and Friday morning in the Champlain Valley since there is some very marginal elevated CAPE, but no severe risk in these areas. The line of showers will encounter a slight increase in instability as it progresses east of the Green Mountains Friday so have continued with the mention of embedded thunderstorms possible in eastern Vermont Friday afternoon. Severe potential is low with the limited instability, but can't ignore the strongly sheared low levels in the environment . so not ruling out an isolated tstorm with some stronger wind gusts. The Storm Predication Center has a Marginal risk of severe weather over Vermont for Friday, with the risk contingent on amount of destabilization that will be able to occur. If clouds break Friday morning ahead of the frontal passage, thunderstorm potential would increase Will continue to evaluate.

Finally, looking at winds tonight . the core of the 40-50 knot pre- frontal low-level jet will move through overnight and is not expected to mix to the surface owing to stabilizing boundary layer overnight. That being said, will still be a breezy night for higher elevations before the rain starts. A slight southeasterly component to the low-level winds will favor some enhanced downsloping gusts (up to about 35 mph) on the northern slopes of the Adirondacks this evening and on the western slopes of the northern Greens tonight. Once the rain starts, winds will diminish to generally under 10 mph for the remainder of the day.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. As of 340 AM EDT Thursday . Precipitation associated with the frontal passage will quickly exit into New Hampshire Friday night, followed by a much drier airmass. With clearing skies and light winds, patchy valley fog will likely from overnight, especially in the favored locations in eastern VT. Lows will range from the mid 40s to the mid 50s. The drier weather will persist through Saturday into Saturday night as we'll remain under brief ridging at the surface. Fair weather cumulus will develop during the afternoon, especially over the higher terrain. These clouds will dissipate during the evening, but expect mid/high clouds to begin to increase overnight as an upper trough swings eastward from the Great Lakes. This feature will remain far enough to the west to preclude any rain until after daybreak Sunday. Highs on Saturday will be near to a few degrees warmer than normal, mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Lows Saturday night will be similar to Friday night, mainly in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 340 AM EDT Thursday . Fairly unsettled weather is expected through the long term period as we look to remain under upper cyclonic flow much of the first half of next week. Although there are differences in the exact timing/placement/evolution of the upper trough, would expect isolated-scattered showers will be possible each day during peak heating hours. Not any one day will be a washout, but also can't completely say with certainty one day will be completely without showers. Have stayed with a model blend for PoPs for now owing to model to model differences. With the trough lingering overhead much of the period, expect temperatures will run a little cooler than normal.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Through 06Z Friday . Mainly VFR conditions will continue despite showery unsettled weather. Main aviation concern will be low- level wind shear with a 30-50 knot southerly low level jet observed tonight. Winds aloft diminish some after 12Z and surface gusts increase to 15-25 knots, so low level wind shear threat decreases during the late morning/early afternoon. The low-level jet then increases again after 00Z, and low-level wind shear again expected tonight as surface gusts diminish. Turbulence is also expected, especially around higher terrain.

The one exception to the VFR conditions this morning will be eastern Vermont, where some lower stratus clouds are expected with some MVFR ceilings at KMPV and KEFK. Otherwise, VFR through 00Z.

A front will move through northern NY after 00Z, along with a line of moderate to locally heavy showers that will reduce ceilings and visibilities to MVFR levels at KMSS and KSLK. These moderate to heavy showers will not affect the remaining TAF sites until after 06Z Friday.

Outlook .

Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

MARINE. South winds 15 to 20 knots will increase to 25 knots today, with some occasional gusts up to 35 knots possible tonight ahead of a front. Winds will decrease Friday morning once moderate to locally heavy rain begins as the front moves through. Winds will be under 15 knots after the frontal passage midday Friday. Waves 1-3 feet today will build to 2-4 feet tonight, then diminish back to 1-3 feet Friday afternoon.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . Duell NEAR TERM . Duell/Haynes SHORT TERM . Hastings LONG TERM . Hastings AVIATION . Duell MARINE . Duell


Weather Reporting Stations
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On 03/09/2021 the NDBC primary processing servers were shut off due to a facilities issue. Station pages on the NDBC website are not updating and there is no ETR at this time. We will update this banner as we learn more.
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45195 18 mi55 min 66°F1 ft

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT8 mi61 minS 15 G 2110.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F61°F52%1014.1 hPa
Morrisville-Stowe State Airport, VT21 mi61 minS 11 G 2210.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F63°F62%1016.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBTV

Wind History from BTV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS13S12
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2 days agoS10S11S11SW10S9S8S5S5S6S5SE4S5S7S7S9
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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