Tuesday, September28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Burlington, VT

Version 3.4
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3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 6:40PM Tuesday September 28, 2021 1:26 PM EDT (17:26 UTC) Moonrise 10:56PMMoonset 2:25PM Illumination 52% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Burlington, VT
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location: 44.49, -73.24     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 281353 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 953 AM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front continues to slowly move across the region this morning with a few lingering showers possible over southern Vermont. Weak high pressure builds into the North Country with increasing amounts of sunshine and cool temperatures this afternoon. A developing trough of low pressure will produce cool and unsettled weather for midweek, before some drier weather returns by Friday into Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 950 AM EDT Tuesday . The back edge of the clouds has begun to enter the St. Lawrence County and will continue to spread eastward through the remainder of the morning/early afternoon hours. Given cooler temps aloft, once the main cloud shield dissipates, diurnal fair weather cumulus clouds should pop across the higher terrain with fewer in the deeper valleys. Temperatures are expected to warm a little once the clouds clear but the cooler air aloft will limit afternoon heating into the mid 50s to lower 60s. We did lower PoPs to remove any mention of rain showers given the latest radar and satellite trends.

Previous discussion below: Sfc analysis places weak cold frnt acrs central VT attm with deep moisture per water vapor trends over central/southern New England. The combination of better moisture and some weak forcing may produce a stray shower or two acrs this region. Next question wl be how quickly does the sun appear today? Northerly flow with 925mb to 850mb caa, along with moisture trapped below subsidence inversion around 875mb, supports a slower clearing trend for parts of the area, especially northern dacks into mtns of VT. Thinking moisture thins enough btwn 15-17z that most locations should break out into some sunshine, with fair wx cumulus likely over the trrn during the aftn hours. First to clear wl be SLV and western side of the CPV from PBG to TIC. Temps wl be influenced by clouds, but given our relatively warm start, we should slowly climb back into the upper 50s to mid 60s most locations on north winds. Tonight weak 1018mb high pres tries to nose into our fa while weak northerly flow continues. Question in terms of temps wl be amount of clearing and if winds decouple. If skies stay clear and winds decouple, SLK could see values in the 27-29F range, while mid/upper 30s would be common acrs colder valleys with l/m 40s in the wider valleys. Staying on warmer side for now with lows ranging from l/m 30s SLK/NEK to mid/upper 40s CPV with some patchy frost likely in the coldest mtn valleys.

On Weds 850 to 500mb closed cyclonic circulation and associated cool pool aloft approaches our northern CWA by 18z. NAM/GFS in good agreement with showing increased 850 to 700mb moisture along with increase threat for showers spreading from north to south acrs our cwa. Clouds quickly overspread the region, with a cool and cloudy day developing, along with some scattered rain showers, especially mtns. Temps wl probably fall back into the 40s acrs most of central/northern VT, as pocket of 850mb air near 0C advects into our fa on northerly winds by 00z Thurs. Temps wl be challenging with some potential sunshine in the morning and llvl caa during the aftn, along with clouds, but thinking highs near 50F NEK/SLK to upper 50s/lower 60s CPV/SLV and lower CT River Valley with upper 30s to mid 40s summits.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 326 AM EDT Tuesday . The core of the upper low will drop into northern New England Wednesday night/Thursday. With 500 mb temperatures dropping to between -20 and -25 deg C, steepening lapse rates will support chances for showers during this time frame. Enough moisture will wrap up and around the closed low and be transported into the BTV forecast area to support at least chance showers within the unstable environment, and further lift will be supplied by shortwave energy rotating around the low. Best chances of light showers will be in northern slopes of higher terrain. QPF amounts overall will be very light - only a few hundredths of an inch expected.

As far as temperatures go, the 850 mb 0 deg C line makes its seasonal debut for our forecast area Thursday morning, which will support crisp temperatures to start the day. Mostly cloudy to overcast skies Wednesday night will temper radiational heat loss overnight, but still expecting lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Still can't rule out a stray snowflake mixed in on the highest summits, but thinking mountain temperatures just not quite cold enough to forecast snow. Highs Thursday will be in the 50s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 326 AM EDT Tuesday . The weather pattern to close out the work week remains relatively persistent as the closed upper low stays in control. The center of the low will begin to lift northeastward Thursday night and settle over the Canadian Maritimes from Friday onward. This shift takes us a little further removed from the core of the low, resulting in a slight decrease in diurnal instability and the associated instability- driven afternoon showers. However, the region will still be under broad cyclonic flow and subject to any shortwaves rotating around the back side of the low. Thus, still expecting occasional showers and at least some partly cloudy skies, though less unsettled conditions than earlier in the week. Overall looks to be a pleasant end to the week despite some passing showers. Prolonged northerly flow under this regime will favor temperatures slightly below normal. Stayed fairly close to NBM guidance for the long term given the seasonable conditions expected.

Eventually the upper low will move out to sea, though ensemble means now suggesting this may not happen until early to mid next week. Forecast confidence decreases early next week as models struggle to handle the evolution and eventual departure of the upper low.

AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Through 12Z Wednesday . Wide range of conditions this morning from LIFR at RUT/SLK to VFR at PBG/MSS. VFR will prevail at PBG/MSS through the next 6 to 12 hours with north winds 4 to 8 knots. RUT/SLK thinking LIFR/IFR continues thru 15z, before trending toward MVFR and eventually VFR by 16z-17z. For BTV/MPV and EFK expecting mostly MVFR cigs with maybe a brief window of IFR btwn 12-14z, before trending toward VFR by 16z. ALl sites should be VFR this aftn into the evening hours, with some fog/br possible toward 04z at MPV/SLK.

Outlook .

Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . Taber NEAR TERM . Clay/Taber SHORT TERM . Duell LONG TERM . Duell AVIATION . Taber


Weather Reporting Stations
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On 03/09/2021 the NDBC primary processing servers were shut off due to a facilities issue. Station pages on the NDBC website are not updating and there is no ETR at this time. We will update this banner as we learn more.
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45195 5 mi57 min 65°F2 ft

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT5 mi33 minNNE 9 G 1910.00 miPartly Cloudy60°F44°F56%1011.8 hPa
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY16 mi34 minN 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy59°F43°F56%1011.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBTV

Wind History from BTV (wind in knots)
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2 days agoS9SW8S11S5S5SE5S3SE4SE4E3CalmCalmCalmNW4E4SE3CalmCalmW5NW6NW6NW933

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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