Saturday, October16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ellsworth, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 5:50PM Saturday October 16, 2021 4:45 AM EDT (08:45 UTC) Moonrise 4:37PMMoonset 2:13AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ052 Intra Coastal Waters From Schoodic Point, Me To Stonington, Me- 257 Am Edt Sat Oct 16 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from 11 am edt this morning through Sunday morning...
Today..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt late this morning and afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog early this morning. Rain likely this morning. A chance of rain early this afternoon, then a slight chance of rain late. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm early this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. Rain in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sun night..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..NW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft, then 1 to 2 ft after midnight.
ANZ005 257 Am Edt Sat Oct 16 2021
Synopsis for eastport me to stonington me out 25 nm.. A warm front will lift northward across the waters today. Low pres will cross N of the waters tonight, then slowly exit across the maritimes Sun through Wed.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ellsworth, ME
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location: 44.5, -68.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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FXUS61 KCAR 160747 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 347 AM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021

SYNOPSIS. A warm front will lift across the region today. A cold front will approach from the west tonight then cross the area early Sunday morning. An upper level low will remain over the region Monday into Tuesday, then move into the Maritimes Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. The warm front is the primary story for today with rain lifting north across the forecast area tonight . accompanied by a rich flow of low level moisture under the frontal inversion. This will ensure a cloudy day with areas of fog this morning as dew points rise into the lower 60s. Elevated convection is still possible with the warm frontal boundary this afternoon and have maintained mention of isolated thunderstorms. Diffluence aloft is noted this afternoon along with a thermal ridge at the top of the inversion with temps pushing towards 15C. For this evening, a powerful low level jet emerges ahead of the strong cold front later tonight. Wind speeds of 50 to 60 kts are noted in the 925 and 850mb levels. Low level stability decreases slightly ahead of the cold front and some gusts over 30 mph are certainly possible. This will help remove a lot of remaining foliage. The bigger concern is with the cold front itself later in the night when deeper mixing could produce gusts over 40 mph and the risk of a few power outages. Elevated CAPE reaches several hundred J/kg and have continued mention of isolated thunderstorms with the cold front. There's plenty of deep moisture too as PWs surge over 1.5 inches with the cold front. A quick inch of rain looks easily attainable. This could cause some minor issues with drainage due to blockages from fallen leaves. The front itself is rather impressive as 850mb temps plummet from nearly 15C towards 2-3C by Sunday morning. A negatively tilted shortwave will help provide lift and will be aided by the exit region of a strong upper jet.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Sun morn, a cold frontal rn band will be just reaching the ME/NB border from the W, with rain ending across Cntrl/Downeast areas by midday, and tapering to sct shwrs across the N. This will be the last day for a while with abv normal hi temps, with sig cooler air holding off til the arrival of the upper trof/upper low from QB Sun ngt. This upper trof/low will then hold ovr the FA Mon thru Tue, with sct rn shwrs spcly across the N and sig cooler hi temps, spcly Tue and ovrngt lows apchg seasonal norms by Mon ngt. In fact, it's not out of the question that high trrn abv 1000 msl may be cold enough for mixed rn/sn shwrs late Mon ngt into erly Tue morn, but it should be noted that tngt's dtmnstc 00z GFS was cooler in the 925-850mb layer by a few deg C than the 00z ECMWF (to warm for any sn shwrs).

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. The upper low/trof will slowly lift ENE thru the Can Maritimes Tue Ngt and Wed, with slowly improving conditions via dissipating shwrs ovrngt Tue and decreasing cldnss by Wed from SW to NE across the FA. Temps will be near seasonal norms durg this tm. Wed Ngt thru Thu morn looks to be fair attm, and after a cool morn, aftn temps should recover a few deg warmer by Wed aftn ovr Tue aftn. Clds will be on the increase later Thu aftn and ngt ahead of a warm front and sfc low pres advcg ENE from the upper Great Lks. Any precip from this system will likely hold off til late Thu ngt for Wrn ptns of the FA late Thu ngt and on Fri for the rest of the FA with lgt rn totals. Temps may be cld enough ovr the far NW for lgt rn to mix with wet sn at the onset with no accumulation xpctd. Temps will warm quickly durg the day Fri.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. NEAR TERM: LIFR to VLIFR cigs are expected this morning ahead of a warm front. The warm front will cross this afternoon with isolated embedded thunderstorms and an improvement in cigs to IFR. Significant LLWS is expected later this afternoon through this evening with up to 55kt at FL020. The IFR cigs persist this evening and tonight. A cold front with isolated thunderstorms and wind gusts to 40kt crosses later tonight.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Sun Morn . all TAF sites IFR clgs/vsbys in rn/patchy fog, rising to MVFR clgs in sct shwrs late in the morn. Lgt Winds.

Sun Aftn - Sun Ngt . all TAF sites low VFR to VFR clgs with sct shwrs possible across Nrn sites til erly eve. Lgt winds.

Mon - Tue Eve . MVFR clgs with sct rn shwrs across Nrn TAF sites with low VFR clgs across Downeast sites with isold rn shwrs across mainly durg aftn hrs. Lgt to mdt WNW winds.

Late Tue Ngt - Wed . Low VFR clgs Nrn TAF sites with msly unlmtd VFR conditions Downeast sites. Lgt WNW winds.

MARINE. NEAR TERM: Will keep the SCA through the period. Low level stability is the only limiting factor from upgrading to a gale. Did reduce wind gusts several knots due to expected stability, but can't rule out a few gusts over 35kt with the cold front later tonight.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: SCA wvs will be winding down msly below 5ft by Sun aftn. Aftwrds, no definitive pd of SCA conditions, although wind gusts may apch 25kt attms ovr outer waters Mon thru Tue, something to watch as we near this tm frame. Patchy marine fog will end W to E across the waters behind the cold front Sun morn. Otherwise, went with blended wv model guidance for fcst wv hts thru these ptns of the fcst. Wvs will be msly composed of a single S to N propagating wv group Sun with pds of 4 to 7 sec then mainly two groups Mon onward a very short N to S propagating group o 2 to 4 sec and a very weak open Atlc semi- swell from the SSE of around 8 to 10 sec.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ050>052.

Near Term . MCW Short Term . VJN Long Term . VJN Aviation . MCW/VJN Marine . MCW/VJN


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ATGM1 - 8413320 - Bar Harbor, ME 14 mi52 min S 2.9G8 58°F 57°F1011.7 hPa
44034 - Buoy I0103 - Eastern Maine Shelf 32 mi102 min SSE 7.8G7.8 58°F 56°F1 ft1012.6 hPa
MDRM1 - Mt Desert Rock, ME 40 mi46 min SE 13G13 1011.8 hPa (-1.2)
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 43 mi102 min SSE 12G14 59°F 59°F1 ft1012 hPa

Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bar Harbor, Hancock County-Bar Harbor Airport, ME4 mi50 minS 810.00 miLight Rain59°F58°F96%1011.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBHB

Wind History from BHB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3E30E3E3E30E4E3S4S4E3S6SE400S5SE6S6S5SE5SE4S6S8
1 day ago00000N7N7N9N8N12N10NE10NE30E4SE3033E4E5E30NE3
2 days ago00N3N300S6SW7S8S7S6SW6SW9S5S4S6SW6SW6S4SW3000W3

Tide / Current Tables for Union River, Maine
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Union River
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:19 AM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:38 AM EDT     10.38 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:40 PM EDT     0.94 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:36 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:54 PM EDT     11.10 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Mount Desert Narrows, Maine
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Mount Desert Narrows
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:19 AM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:39 AM EDT     10.47 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:40 PM EDT     0.95 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:36 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:55 PM EDT     11.19 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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