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LMZ522 Expires:202405082000;;840636 Fzus53 Kgrb 081113 Nshgrb
nearshore marine forecast national weather service green bay wi 613 am cdt Wed may 8 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of the shore on lake michigan
lmz521-522-082000- green bay south of line from cedar river to rock island passage and north of a line from oconto wi to little sturgeon bay wi- green bay south of line from oconto wi to little sturgeon bay wi- 613 am cdt Wed may 8 2024
Today - NW wind 5 to 10 kts veering ne in the afternoon. A slight chance of rain showers in the morning. Waves 2 ft or less.Tonight - NE wind 5 to 10 kts increasing to 10 to 20 kts after midnight. A slight chance of rain showers after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Thursday - NE wind 10 to 20 kts. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Thursday night - N wind 10 to 15 kts. Mostly clear. Waves 2 ft or less.

LMZ500
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FXUS63 KGRB 081141 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 641 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

KEY MESSAGES

- An unsettled weather pattern will bring intermittent chances of light rain from today through the weekend. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms over central and north-central Wisconsin this afternoon, but severe weather is not expected.

- Low temperatures in the lower to middle 30s will be conducive for a frost and freeze over north-central and far northeast Wisconsin on Thursday night.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Short Term
Today
Tonight...and Thursday

Precipitation trends and temperatures will be the main forecast concerns during the short-term period.

An upper level low pressure system and mid-level frontogenetic forcing will gradually shift out of far N/NE WI early this morning, resulting in a gradual decrease in the rain band that lingers there. Patchy dense fog in north central WI should mix out by mid-morning, and a Special Weather Statement has been issued through the commute period. After a short dry period through midday, a few showers and isolated thunderstorms may redevelop over the southwest half of the forecast area, where an inverted surface trough and weak instability (SBCAPE 100-400 j/kg)
will reside in the afternoon and early evening. Most of the shower activity should wane after sunset, though isolated showers may linger over the far southern part of the forecast area overnight. Models have trended farther south with the next round of precipitation on Thursday, so have lowered pops to slight chance/chance and shifted precipitation chances a bit farther south. It's possible that further southward adjustments may be needed, due to dry NE winds.

Persistent clouds over northern WI should hold temperatures in the lower to middle 60s over northern WI today, while partly cloudy skies and sunshine boosts highs into the lower to middle 70s farther south. Lows tonight should be in the upper 30s far north to the 40s elsewhere. Mostly cloudy skies and brisk NE winds (especially in the Fox Valley and lakeshore areas) will bring cooler highs in the 50s to around 60 range on Thursday.

Long Term...Thursday Night Through Tuesday

Weather impacts in this part of the forecast mainly revolve around frost potential and light precip chances.

Frost Potential: Clouds will be departing Thursday evening from north to south. As the surface ridge axis arrives overnight, nearly ideal radiational cooling conditions will be in place over central to north-central Wisconsin. Forecast low temperatures remain in the lower to middle 30s over the sandy soil areas of north-central to far northeast WI. These temps will be favorable for frost development. Anyone with cold sensitive plants are advised to take proper precautions.

A similar setup could be in store on Saturday night as well, as a weak surface ridge axis is forecast to move into the region late.
Forecast temps are few degrees warmer than on Thursday night, but MOS guidance indicates temps in the middle 30s are possible.

Light precip chances: A quick hitting clipper system remains on track to bring rainfall to the region on Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Decent dynamics combined with weak instability up to 100 j/kg could lead to isolated storms and will leave a slight chance of thunder in the forecast. A tenth to a quarter inch of precip appears possible for most locations.

Another quick hitting system could generate light rain on Sunday afternoon and evening, but dynamics are not nearly as robust as on Friday night. Precip chances will therefore be lower.

AVIATION
for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 632 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Rain was finally coming to an end across far NE WI early this morning, but low clouds remained over parts of northern WI, and patchy dense fog was ongoing over the western part of the forecast area. The fog should mix out by 14z, and low clouds in northern WI should gradually rise to VFR by midday. There is a small chance of showers or a stray thunderstorm this afternoon and early evening, mainly over central WI. A few showers could redevelop across central and east central WI overnight.

Winds will become E-NE this afternoon and tonight, and may become gusty in the Fox Valley tonight.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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