Sunday, January16, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Winterport, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 4:23PM Sunday January 16, 2022 8:09 PM EST (01:09 UTC) Moonrise 3:57PMMoonset 7:31AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ151 Penobscot Bay- 330 Pm Est Sun Jan 16 2022
.storm warning in effect from late tonight through Monday afternoon...
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late this evening and early morning, then becoming se 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt late. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A slight chance of rain and snow late.
Mon..SE winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 65 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, building to 7 to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain. A chance of snow in the morning, then a chance of drizzle in the afternoon.
Mon night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. A chance of drizzle in the evening.
Tue..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon.
Tue night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft after midnight.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of snow or rain in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain. A chance of snow after midnight.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
ANZ100 330 Pm Est Sun Jan 16 2022
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. Low pressure tracks north through the appalachians and into canada tonight into Monday. A warm front lifts across the gulf of maine with strong southeast winds expected Monday morning. Winds shift to south and weaken later in the day, then shift to the west overnight as cold air moves back in.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winterport, ME
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location: 44.64, -68.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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FXUS61 KCAR 162319 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 619 PM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will track just west of Maine Monday and exit across the Maritimes on Tuesday. High pressure briefly builds in Wednesday morning before a weak low moves across the state Wednesday night. High pressure builds back toward the region from the west on Thursday and dominates the weather through Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. High cloud was beginning to move into downeast Maine at this hour, otherwise it was clear across all of the forecast area. Only adjustments needed at this time were to tweak hourly temperatures and dew points, based on latest observed data, showing a slightly slower temperature drop early this evening than previously forecast. Otherwise, the forecast remains in fine shape this evening.

previous discussion High pressure moves east of the area overnight. The cold air mass in place, light winds and clear skies will promote strong radiational cooling this evening with temperatures dropping off to as low as around minus 10F in northern Aroostook. Increasing clouds and a rapidly strengthening onshore flow will keep coastal temps from falling out of the teens tonight. Overall, lows will occur around midnight or earlier and temps will rise later in the night with the strong warm advection ahead of the approaching low.

In general, the approaching low is a filling vertically stacked low that will track to the west of the area. A strong warm occlusion associated with the low will sweep northward across the area during Monday and deliver most of its snowfall in a relatively short timeframe. The occlusion will be aligned with a very strong LLJ featuring 90kt winds at H850, the exit region of a strong upper jet, and a potent shortwave rotating around the closed upper low. PWs surge to over three-quarters of an inch along the occlusion. The net result is strong lift as evidenced in omega and H700 fgen fields and a three to four hour period with snowfall rates that could reach 1 or 2 inches an hour. The speed of the occlusion moving north will limit snowfall to less than warning criteria except in the Moosehead Lake region where totals just meet 7-inch criteria. Wind gusts over 40 mph and several hours of heavier snow may coincide in that region around midday Monday. That potential needs to be monitored for a possible headline upgrade. Besides the speed of the occlusion moving northward, two other factors will limit snowfall. The first is the warm nose aloft with the H850 jet that will produce some sleet and generate lower snow ratios. The other is the strong push of warm surface air with the onshore flow. While cold air damming will be a factor in the morning, locations such as Bangor and interior Downeast will have snowfall amounts reduced by a changeover to rain. The warmest air will arrive on the backside of the occluded front. Temperatures along the coast will warm into the mid 40s in the afternoon. Locations as far north as Caribou will reach the freezing mark by evening. Overall snowfall totals fell short of the normal advisory criteria for southern Penobscot and interior Downeast, but the potential for a changeover to freezing rain necessitated the advisory.

Besides the snow, winds are the other big concern on Monday. As usual, the strong H925 jet moves along the coast with GFS advertising the most potent winds and deepest mixing. Retained the High Wind Warning, but am now advertising gusts to reach the 60 to 65 mph range for a brief window in the afternoon. Local studies and rules of thumb support the strong winds and potential for power outages along the Downeast coast. The strong SE winds will peak in the midday and afternoon. The return of Arctic air on Tuesday makes any power outages worrisome. Further inland, anticipate less mixing and a weaker LLJ. Would have issued a Wind Advisory for southern Penobscot and interior Downeast, but the winds are rolled into the Winter Weather Advisory for those areas.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Monday evening will feature dry slot moving in from the south with pcpn briefly winding down ahead of cold front. May see a timeframe of patchy drizzle/frzg drizzle occurring around midnight but moisture will increase in mid-levels as cold front crosses the area. Snow and blowing snow will remain across nrn zones through 06z with sfc low passing just to the north. An additional inch or two will be possible over the St. John Vly overnight.

Cold front will bring snow showers and possible squalls to far ern sxns around 06z before crossing into NB after 12z. Cold temps will follow in wake of front with lows in the single digits acrs the northwest and around 20F expected along the coast. These early temps wl likely be the high temps on Tue as temps level off and/or slowly fall during the day Tuesday.

Winds likely to gust out of the northwest Tue afternoon to between 25-30 mph, higher across the higher terrain. Winds and cold temps on Tue will be an issue for any ongoing power outages as wind chills drop to advisory criteria in the late afternoon, possibly approaching warning criteria across the far north Tue night.

High pressure will build in late Tue night and with skies clearing expect that temps may drop as low as -25 across the northwest. Mins along the coast will be right around 0F. High pressure moves east drg the aftn with a warm front lifting through the area in the afternoon. Temps will warm above freezing along the coast with a rain/snow mix expected and snow elsewhere.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. CWA will be in the warm sector Wed night with light snow to the north of the coast. By 12z Thu, low pressure will be over the Gulf of St. Lawrence with a cold front moving through the region Wed night. This will bring cold air back into the area with near steady to falling temps expected once again on Thu.

High pressure builds in on Friday through the weekend with mins expected Fri and Sat morning to be in the minus teens across the north and possibly colder depending on radn'l cooling. Highs on Fri will be in the single digits for almost the entire region, warming by about 5-10 degrees but still some 10 degrees blo normal.

AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. NEAR TERM: VFR conditions continue until early Monday morning. The exception may be MVFR cigs spreading north from the coast later in the night. Visibility will quickly drop to IFR or LIFR due to snow in the morning for sites such as BGR, GNR and MLT. These reduced visibilities will spread across the entire area by midday. The coastal sites such as BHB will experience a briefer period of morning snow . to be replaced by IFR cigs and rain. Mixed precipitation will become a threat later in the morning for sites such as BGR . and will spread northward to affect all sites at times during the afternoon.

LLWS emerges as an issue later tonight for all sites. Winds and LLWS will steadily increase through the day. Southeast wind gusts towards 50kt are possible at BHB and along the coast by early afternoon. Winds at FL020 may reach up to 70kt along the coast in the afternoon.

SHORT TERM: Mon night . IFR across the north in snow and possible blowing snow. MVFR/IFR possible over Downeast. Conditions improve late Tue morning following cold front. S 5-15kts gusting to 25kts early becoming W 10-20kts late.

Tue . MVFR north with VFR BGR and BHB. W 5-15kts with gust to 25 kts.

Tue night . VFR. NW 5-15kts diminishing to 5kts late.

Wed-Wed night . Becoming MVFR/IFR in the afternoon in -sn with light rasn at BHB in the afternoon and evening. W 5kts early becoming S 5-10kts in the afternoon.

Thu-Fri . VFR. WNW 5-10kts.

MARINE. NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will increase dramatically Monday morning and confidence in the Storm Warning is very high. The uncertainty lies in whether a rare Hurricane Force Warning is required for a brief period in the midday to early afternoon. For now, have mentioned a few gusts to 65 kt in the Coastal Waters Forecast and in the Storm Warning. Gusts of this strength are possible from after 11 am towards mid-afternoon. Seas will rapidly build to over 20 ft in the outer waters Monday afternoon.

SHORT TERM: Gale force winds expected through Tue evening before diminishing to SCA levels through early Wed morning. Winds may briefly increase to gale force Wed evening with SCA level winds expected through the end of the week. Seas remain elevated above 10 feet into Tue afternoon on the outer waters. Seas then briefly drop below 5ft Wed morning before increasing again Wed afternoon in southerly swell.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. The Monday morning high tide is near 10am. This high tide is not a particularly high astronomical tide, but a potential storm surge around 3 feet is the largest of the winter so far. At this point, the peak surge is two or three hours later than the high tide, but has trended in better alignment today. The combination of this surge, rapidly building seas and southeast wind gusts rapidly increasing towards 60 mph presents the threat of minor coastal flooding . especially if the storm surge continues to trend earlier in the day. Wave runup and minor splashover is another concern as large seas will be rapidly building through Monday morning Roads on MDI exposed to larger waves. such as Seawall Road..as well as similar sites on the Schoodic Peninsula are most likely to have any splashover issues. As a result of the threat, a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for the Monday morning high tide cycle.

One other item of interest is the surge moving up through Penobscot Bay towards Bangor. Again, the timing of the surge and high tide is not aligned at the moment, but merits attention if the offset decreases.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to 10 PM EST Monday for MEZ001>006. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 3 PM EST Monday for MEZ011-015>017-031-032. High Wind Warning from 7 AM to 5 PM EST Monday for MEZ029-030. Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM to 10 PM EST Monday for MEZ010. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM to noon EST Monday for MEZ029. MARINE . Storm Warning from 7 AM to 5 PM EST Monday for ANZ050>052.



Near Term . TWD/MCW Short Term . Buster Long Term . Buster Aviation . TWD/MCW/Buster Marine . TWD/MCW/Buster Tides/Coastal Flooding .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ATGM1 - 8413320 - Bar Harbor, ME 38 mi69 min W 2.9G2.9 19°F 34°F1026.6 hPa (+0.7)
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 41 mi125 min SSW 12G16 26°F 40°F1 ft
44034 - Buoy I0103 - Eastern Maine Shelf 54 mi125 min SSW 12G16 21°F 43°F1 ft

Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME
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Last 24 hrNW23
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N17
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G25
NE13
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NE17
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N18
G30

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bangor, Bangor International Airport, ME12 mi76 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy11°F2°F67%1026.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBGR

Wind History from BGR (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hrNW8
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NW5W44W6NW6NW8W8
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W6NW5S3SW3SW6W6NW600N3NE3E30S500
1 day agoN26
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2 days ago00N3NW3NW4NW30NW30NW6NE3N3N3N6N12N15N12N14N13N20
G26
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G34

Tide / Current Tables for Winterport, Penobscot River, Maine
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Winterport
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Sun -- 03:43 AM EST     1.70 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:30 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:36 AM EST     12.16 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:56 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:22 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 04:24 PM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:15 PM EST     10.57 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Winterport, Penobscot River, Maine, Tide feet
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10.5
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11.9
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12.1
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6.1
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3.4
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10.3


Tide / Current Tables for Gross Point, Eastern Channel, Penobscot River, Maine
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Gross Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:39 AM EST     1.50 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:30 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:33 AM EST     10.75 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:56 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:20 PM EST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:22 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:12 PM EST     9.34 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Gross Point, Eastern Channel, Penobscot River, Maine, Tide feet
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6.5
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