Thursday, September23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Honor, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 6:47PM Thursday September 23, 2021 1:54 PM CDT (18:54 UTC) Moonrise 8:05PMMoonset 9:08AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ345 Point Betsie To Sleeping Bear Point Mi- Manistee To Point Betsie Mi- 1117 Am Edt Thu Sep 23 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 11 pm edt this evening...
Rest of the afternoon..North wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Numerous showers in the late morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Tonight..Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Scattered showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Friday..Southwest wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Friday night..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Rain showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ345 Expires:202109240000;;060034 FZUS53 KAPX 231517 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1117 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ345-346-240000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Honor, MI
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location: 44.69, -86     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 231706 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 106 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

NEAR TERM. (Through Tonight) Issued at 1259 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

Showery and Cool Weather Continues Tonight

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Vertically stacked, and hence filling, low pressure making now steady north progress across southeast lower Michigan early this afternoon. Attendant deformation and increasingly pinched off elevated warm conveyor belt helping drive showers back northwest across the area . although rain amounts have remained fairly light (mostly under half an inch) as that warm conveyor belt weakens and dry air begins to get more entrained into the system. Winds remain a bit gusty out of the north and northeast, and when combined with those showers and clouds, has again kept temperatures several degrees below normal . with current readings mostly in the upper 40s to lower 50s (no doubt actually feels several degrees colder).

Low pressure will continue to make steady northeast progress tonight . reaching vicinity North Channel by sunrise Friday. Secondary shortwave trough expected to dive into the northern Plains late tonight . with this system slated to bring our next round of showers Friday night as it crosses the region.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges:

Addressing lingering showers and overnight temperature trends.

Details:

Expect main band of rain to continue to pivot northwest the remainder of this afternoon . decreasing in organization and intensity in the process as main moist conveyor belt gets shunted well off to our east. Scattered showers will continue much of tonight however within remnant deeper moisture of decaying deformation axis. May even see a bit of Lake Michigan moisture contribution as winds back northwest and shallow inversion top temperatures dip to the low to mid single digits. Aggressive drying arrives later tonight from the southwest, likely ending the shower threat for areas south of the Grand Traverse Bay region toward morning. Low levels of the atmosphere will remain well mixed tonight, again preventing temperatures from dropping to their full potential (like what occurred just to our northwest last night when reading dipped well down into the 30s), with overnight lows once again mainly in the 40s.

SHORT TERM. (Friday through Saturday) Issued at 345 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

High impact weather potential: Some lingering hazardous beach conditions may still be around for Friday. Some stronger showers/storms with sub-severe winds late Friday into early Saturday morning possible. Maybe some waterspout potential Saturday??

Upper level low pressure will be over northern Lake Huron to start off the forecast period and continue it's northward march towards Hudson Bay as another area of low pressure slips in behind this and begins it's southeastward trek towards the northern Great Lakes region. An associated cold front will sweep through the CWA late Friday and into early Saturday morning . producing showers and possibly some rumbles of thunder. No storms are expected to be severe at this time . however with the already strong wind fields forecast, wouldn't doubt to see any stronger showers/storms produce some strong winds (less than 55mph). QPF amounts should be around a half an inch by early Saturday morning from about the I-75 cooridor and west and all of eastern upper and tapering off to about a quarter inch or less over most of northeastern lower. Behind this front colder air will filter in on northwesterly winds as well as wrap around moisture. This colder air will bring in 850mb temperatures of about 3-5 degrees Celsius. This would produce delta Ts of around 15C, which will produce lake effect clouds and possibly some drizzle and light rain showers throughout the remainder of Saturday with west to northwesterly 925mb winds between 20-35 kts. Another thing to keep in mind is the waterspout potential for Saturday with Delta Ts near 15C, lake generated cloud depth near 10kft, and 850mb wind around 25-30kts.

Northwesterly winds will back to southwesterly throughout the day Friday as the aforementioned cold front approaches the forecast area and then veer to west to northwesterly behind the departing front Saturday. Gusts of 20-30 mph will be expected both ahead of and behind the cold front.

Temperatures will vary greatly from Friday and Saturday . with highs reaching into the mid 60s to near 70 Friday and barely reaching 60 on Saturday with the cooler air filtering in behind the departing front.

LONG TERM. (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 345 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

. Quieter Weather Expected .

High impact weather potential: None is expected.

A blocking pattern looks like it will set up across North America. This will be in the form of a Rex Block with low pressure in the Plains and a blocking upper level ridge centered across central Canada. In addition, there will be a downstream trough across eastern Canada. The long and short of all this is that northern Michigan is expected to sit on the western periphery of the downstream trough. Overall little precipitation is expected except for a couple of shower chances from short waves moving through the flow. Temperatures are expected to average close to normal with highs generally in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1259 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

MVFR to IFR cigs and visibilities in areas of light rain and mist expected to continue across the taf locations through much of tonight. Expect conditions to rapidly improve from southwest to northeast Friday morning as dry air overspreads the northern Lakes Gusty winds will steadily back tonight. reaching a more westerly direction by Friday morning.

MARINE. Issued at 1259 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

Decaying low pressure will continue to move northeast tonight, steadily backing winds to a northwest direction in the process. Very unstable over-water conditions and a lingering pressure gradient will continue to produce small craft advisory conditions on several of our nearshore waters. Winds continue to back to a southwest direction on Friday ahead of our next approaching cold front. Focus for strongest winds, again likely producing small craft conditions, centers on northern Lake Michigan. Southwest to west winds, at times quite gusty, continue right through Saturday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ017- 018-020-024>026-030-031-036-042-098-099. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345>349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321-322.

UPDATE . mb NEAR TERM . mb SHORT TERM . TL LONG TERM . TL AVIATION . mb MARINE . mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45183 22 mi55 min N 23 G 29 53°F 61°F4 ft
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 35 mi75 min NE 8 G 11 50°F 1012.2 hPa
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 43 mi75 min NE 23 G 27 53°F 1011.9 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 52 mi75 min NE 13 G 17 50°F 1012.2 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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N8
G17
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NE5
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N7
G12
N6
G11
N4
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G11
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G9
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N4
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G5
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G12
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NE3
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SW7
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G11
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G11
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G12
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G26
W6
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G13
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G12
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G11

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI12 mi80 minNE 64.00 miRain50°F47°F91%1011.2 hPa
Cherry Capital Airport, MI22 mi62 minNNE 12 G 2210.00 miOvercast52°F47°F83%1010.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFKS

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN12
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G24
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1 day agoNW10
G16
N9
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N6N4N4CalmN4N5
G15
N7N5
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N5N4NE7N7
G14
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E4NE6N6N8NE11
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2 days agoSE8S6S6S7S8S8S8S9
G14
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G21
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G17
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G15
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S5W9NW13
G22
NW7NW8NW8NW10
G14
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G14
NW9NW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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