Thursday, October21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pilgrim, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 5:58PM Thursday October 21, 2021 4:51 PM CDT (21:51 UTC) Moonrise 6:34PMMoonset 8:03AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ366 Expires:202110220330;;046341 Fzus63 Kmkx 211951 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 251 Pm Cdt Thu Oct 21 2021 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. Low pressure of 29.7 inches over southern ontario will move to southern quebec this evening. Northerly gales will gradually diminish from northern lake michigan to southern lake michigan late this afternoon into the early evening. Modest northwesterly winds will then prevail Friday and Saturday leading to some lake effect shower activity over the eastern half of the lake. Some low level instability will be present supporting some waterspout threat with this lake effect shower activity, especially over the southern end of the lake. Low pressure passing to the south late Sunday night and Monday may then lead to easterly gales for the south half of the lake. Lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-220330- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 251 pm cdt Thu oct 21 2021 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north...
.gale warning in effect until 4 pm cdt this afternoon...
Tonight..North to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Slight chance of rain. Waves 8 to 12 ft occasionally to 16 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt. Slight chance of rain. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Friday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming north 10 to 20 kt. Chance of rain. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday..North winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northwest 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sunday..North winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northeast 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft building to 2 to 4 ft.
Sunday night..East winds to 30 kt. Chance of rain. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Monday..East winds to 30 kt. Chance of rain. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
LMZ366


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pilgrim, MI
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location: 44.69, -86.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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FXUS63 KGRB 211933 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 233 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

SHORT TERM. Tonight and Friday Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021

The main forecast concerns center around frost potential across east-central WI, potential for late night lake effect snow showers/Friday lake effect rain showers north-central WI and how cool to keep temperatures on Friday.

The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed an area of low pressure over extreme southeast Ontario, a cold front that stretched southwest from the low across the WI/IL border and high pressure situated over the northern Plains. Visible satellite imagery showed the thicker clouds associated with the cold front in the process of exiting east-central WI, while lake effect clouds were over far northern WI.

Brief clearing (albeit with some high clouds) is expected this evening as the low pressure pulls farther away. Prevailing north- northwest winds will diminish this evening as well, however the cool air moving over the warmer waters of Lake Superior should bring low clouds back into northern WI late evening/overnight. As for lake effect potential over north-central WI tonight, delta-T values reach the middle teens with inversion heights around 5K ft. This may be just enough to generate a small chance of lake effect precipitation toward daybreak. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the middle 20s to around 30 degrees north, thus snow showers would be possible if the precipitation does develop. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies will exist for the rest of northeast WI with temperatures in the lower to middle 30s (except upper 30s for Door County). This sets the stage for frost over east-central WI (where widespread frost has yet to occur) and the need for an advisory in collaboration with ARX and MKX offices.

A prevailing northwest flow aloft into the Great Lakes will continue to feed cooler air into northeast WI on Friday. Models indicate another shortwave trough will rotate through the region during the day and bring more clouds to the forecast area. For now, have kept the forecast dry (mid-levels look too dry) with the exception of north-central WI where borderline lake effect conditions to persist. Warming temperatures would have any precipitation fall as all rain. Look for readings to range from the lower to middle 40s north-central WI, upper 40s to around 50 degrees elsewhere.

LONG TERM. Friday Night Through Thursday Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021

Friday night through Saturday night . Weak upper ridging will be sliding into the region at the beginning of the extended, as cold air continues to push into the region Friday night. Surface high pressure should keep most of the region dry for this period, although a few weak lake effect showers for the far north can't be ruled out. Low temperatures are expected to range from the middle 20s across the north to the middle 30s near the Fox Valley. This will create both a chance for a few snowflakes in the north, and frost for the Fox Valley. High temperatures on Saturday won't be much different, ranging from the middle 40s in the far north to the lower 50s near the Fox Valley. Although lake effect precipitation may abate by Saturday afternoon, clouds will likely linger on for the far north while skies become sunny elsewhere.

Rest of the forecast . The weak upper ridge will break down fairly quickly Saturday night into Sunday as WAA returns to the region aloft ahead of a surface warm front. Overrunning warm air will likely then produce our next round of precipitation on Sunday, bringing scattered showers to the area. There is still some uncertainty on how far north this system will get, as a fairly broad upper high to the north may limit the northern extent of the warm air. Precipitation will then Monday afternoon, as return flow picks up. Expect temperatures to increase again for the middle of next week, with highs heading towards the lower 60s and overnight lows in the 40s. Another shortwave is then in the works for Wednesday, for another round of active weather in the middle of the week.

AVIATION. for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021

Light rain/drizzle have moved out of east-central WI with clouds becoming more scattered as low pressure pulls away from the region. East-central WI will see a MVFR cig early this afternoon, but this should improve to VFR conditions by mid-afternoon. Gusty north-northwest winds are expected through the afternoon, but quickly diminish by early evening as the pressure gradient relaxes. VFR conditions are forecast for most of the region tonight with only high clouds overhead. The exception will be the RHI TAF site where lake effect clouds are expected to spread south and bring cigs back down to MVFR from late evening through at least Tuesday morning. Anticipate some diurnal cu to develop Tuesday morning over the rest of northeast WI, but be scattered at best. Less wind also expected for Tuesday as weak high pressure begins to build into the area.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Friday for WIZ038>040-048>050.

SHORT TERM . Kallas LONG TERM . Uhlmann AVIATION . Kallas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 37 mi71 min NNW 13G25 42°F 1011.9 hPa
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 42 mi51 min N 9.9G16 50°F 1013 hPa (+2.1)
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 43 mi71 min NW 24G32 48°F 1014.9 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 46 mi71 min N 22G30 50°F 1013.5 hPa
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 49 mi31 min N 23G31 47°F 60°F1014.4 hPa39°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI29 mi56 minN 810.00 miOvercast47°F39°F73%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFKS

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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