Sunrise 5:13 AM   Sunset 7:49 PM Moonrise 4:44 AM   Moonset 7:40 PM

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ANZ151 Penobscot Bay- 331 Pm Edt Tue May 7 2024
Tonight - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw late this evening and early morning, then becoming ne late. Seas around 2 ft this evening, then 1 foot or less. Wed - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 7 seconds. Showers in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Wed night - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 7 seconds. Showers likely, mainly in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Thu - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 6 seconds. A chance of showers. Thu night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Fri - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: ne 2 ft at 3 seconds. Showers likely. Fri night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Sat - N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. Sat night - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the evening. Sun - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

ANZ100 331 Pm Edt Tue May 7 2024
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm high pressure will shift to the south and east of the waters tonight as low pressure approaches from the west additional waves of low pressure will cross through the waters from Thursday into the upcoming weekend with small craft advisory conditions possible Thursday night and Friday.

FXUS61 KCAR 071631 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1231 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will build in from the west today and crest over the area tonight. Weak low pressure will approach on Wednesday and slide south of the area Wednesday night. High pressure will build north of the area Thursday. A new low will develop off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
12:31 PM Update: Forecast is on track at this time.
Observations show partly to mostly cloudy skies in the North with mostly sunny skies for the Bangor region and Downeast. Made minor tweaks to account for latest observations.

Prev Disc: A sfc ridge of high pres xtndg from Cntrl Can will drier conditions to all of the FA tdy, with llvl cool advcn on breezy NW winds and advcg SC cld cvr from Ern QB resulting in cooler high temps across the N. S of the SC cld field, high temps this Aftn will be as warm ovr E Cntrl and even a little warmer ovr Downeast areas than ystdy due to a downslope, offshore wind direction resulting in greater llvl mixing and llvl htg of the airmass. SC cld cvr across the N will be accentuated by a s/wv trof movg SSE from Wrn Labrador just N of Nrn ME this Aftn, bring colder air alf for this ptn of the Rgn.
At this tm, any shwrs with this system should remain well N of the St John vly, but something for the day shift to monitor.

By late in the day, the s/wv will be movg well E of the FA across the Ern Can Maritimes, taking with the SC cld cvr from Nrn areas. Otherwise, under clear skies and dmnshg winds Tngt, temps will fall to lows near frzg ovr Nrn Vlys by daybreak Wed with mid 30s to arnd 40 deg swrd toward the coast. High CI/CS will be advcg ovr Wrn ptns of the FA by daybreak, ahead of the next weak low pres system.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Weak surface high pressure will be ridging across the area Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, a fast moving but shallow shortwave will be approaching from the west southwest and supporting low pressure tracking through New York state. This low will bring increasing clouds Wednesday as it approaches followed by rain moving into southern areas Wednesday afternoon. Currently there is high confidence in a light to moderate rainfall over central and southern areas with this small system, but less confidence in how far north the rain will come. The latest models are bringing the low far enough north for at least some light rain over the north Wednesday night with the rain tapering off to showers throughout the area late at night.

Low pressure will slide east and away into the Maritimes on Thursday as weak surface high pressure builds over the north. This will bring clouds giving way to partial sunshine over the north. There is no strong mechanism for clearing the sky further south where a corridor of moisture will linger and the sky will remain mostly cloudy with a few breaks of sunshine.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Thursday night will remain partly cloudy over the north under weak high pressure and mostly cloudy across the south. A very weak and shallow trailing shortwave will carry a small low off the Mid- Atlantic coast and well south of the area.

Our focus on Friday will be on a new shortwave approaching the Mid- Atlantic coast and developing a new area of low pressure. Forecast models continue to struggle with the details of this low with some models carrying the low north to bring more rain over the weekend while other models are less able to consolidate a shortwave and carry a weaker low to our south and east. Will continue to carry high chance and low likely pops Friday into Saturday as this low tracks off the shore. The track of this low partly hinges on how strong and deep a backing shortwave trough will dive into the Plains. A stronger deeper trough will better pivot the offshore low north while a weak trough will result in a shallower less amplified wave ahead of it and thereby allow the low to slip out to sea.

The Plains trough will slide east and combine with the eastern trough to bring an upper trough lingering over the area on Sunday producing a mostly cloudy sky with some lingering showers possible.
The trough may begin to move away to the east on Monday. However, there is currently no strong ridging or surface high to follow, so unsettled conditions may persist with a partly to mostly cloudy sky and a chance for spotty showers into early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
NEAR TERM: Tdy...Nrn TAF sites low VFR clgs into Aftn with MVFR clgs possible KFVE, otherwise unlmtd VFR. Downeast sites msly unlmtd VFR. Lgt to mdt NW winds.

Tngt...all TAF sites unlmtd VFR with lgt winds.

SHORT TERM: Wednesday...VFR dropping to MVFR then IFR south, and possibly dropping to MVFR north late. Light and variable wind.

Wednesday night...MVFR to IFR. Light E wind.

Thursday...IFR to MVFR becoming VFR late. Light NE wind.

Thursday night...VFR. Light NE wind.

Friday...VFR, lowering to MVFR south late. Light E wind.

Friday night...MVFR north. MVFR to IFR south. Light E wind.

Saturday...Possibly IFR early. Otherwise, MVFR. N wind.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: No hdlns anticipated at this tm ovr this ptn of the fcst. Kept close to blended wv model guidance for fcst wv hts with wvs msly composed of two spectral groups; a shorter 4 to 6 sec and a longer 10 to 12 sec pd swell.

SHORT TERM: Wind and seas may reach SCA on Friday depending on the track and strength of low pressure tracking to our south.
There still remains considerable uncertainly on how well this low will develop. Otherwise, wind and seas will should below SCA through the week.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

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Hampden
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Tue -- 04:44 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:58 AM EDT     -1.81 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:11 AM EDT     14.53 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:11 PM EDT     -0.65 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     New Moon
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     16.16 feet High Tide
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Hampden, Penobscot River, Maine, Tide feet

Sandy Point
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Tue -- 04:44 AM EDT     -1.48 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:44 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:53 AM EDT     11.85 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:57 PM EDT     -0.53 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:06 PM EDT     13.18 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     New Moon
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Sandy Point, Penobscot River, Maine, Tide feet

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