Sunrise 6:28 AM   Sunset 8:43 PM Moonrise 2:34 AM   Moonset 11:47 AM

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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 240 Pm Edt Wed May 1 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 pm edt this evening - .
Tonight - Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots early in the evening becoming variable 10 knots or less. Gusts to 25 knots. Partly cloudy early in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday night - Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday - West wind 5 to 10 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 011837 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 237 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire danger in our southeast areas this afternoon/evening.

- Chances of precipitation and thunderstorms possible at times this weekend before conditions dry out early next week.

- Watching for more organized precipitation towards the end of the long term period.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: ~1004mb low pressure is currently situated just east of Lake Superior early this afternoon with a trailing cold/occluded front clearing eastern upper and the sunrise side of northern lower. Main slug of showers from earlier this morning now well off to the east.

Heading through this evening, mid-level height rises to be the rule as ridging amplifies over the western Great Lakes into Thursday.
Surface high pressure to accompany this, eventually breaking down later Thursday as another area of low pressure meanders well to our northwest dragging a myriad of boundaries near and through northern Michigan late this week.

Forecast Details: Mix of sun and clouds across the forecast area this afternoon -- more clouds across the tip of the mitt and eastern U.P. coinciding well with lingering low PoPs for an isolated shower into this evening. Elevated fire danger remains this afternoon in far southeastern areas given lower RHs near 30% and localized westerly gusts as high 30-40 mph. Improvement to that threat expected this evening as winds diminish and good RH recovery overnight. Patchy fog possible tonight as well.

Much of the day Thursday expected to feature tranquil conditions with gradually increase/thickening clouds. Perhaps a few showers sneak in to western areas during the afternoon, but latest trends over the last 24 hours or so suggest a later arrival time to more steadier rains hold off until Thursday night into Friday morning.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Midlevel longwave troughing currently over North America with large scale low pressure centered over the Alberta/Saskatchewan region will occupy the Great Lakes region for the entirety of the long term period. Embedded height disturbances will keep active weather conditions this weekend across the CWA as showers and thunderstorms move across the state.

Weak, low pressure will develop lee of the rockies and make its way to the Midwest by Thursday night delivering the first round of showers and storms. Additional precipitation returns Saturday night supported by troughing tied to aformentioned low pressure currently over Saskatchewan.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

-Chances of precipitation and thunderstorms remain possible at times this weekend before conditions dry out early next week: While most times remain cloudy and quiet across the CWA this weekend, a quick shot of rain begins Thursday night as a weak frontal passage delivers scattered showers and thunderstorms into the day Friday. Latest guidance depicts PWAT values near climatological max, weak forcing mechanisms will keep measurable QPF low for most locations. A general tenth or so of liquid can be expected for most areas but a few locations could see over a half inch under more convective showers this Friday. Less precip is expected this Sunday as the second trough moves across the Midwest delivering a general trace to tenth of an inch of measurable precipitation.

-Watching for more organized precipitation towards the end of the long term period: Shortwave midlevel ridging begins to build at the start of next week across the Midwest, keeping conditions dry this Monday. Temperatures will climb above normal for early May with highs in the low to mid 70s for most locations south of the Bridge.
Long range guidance continues to hint a more active weather returning to the Great Lakes region around the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe as midlevel closed low pressure currently over Pacific Northwest progresses to the central CONUS. Too early to message impacts at this moment but will continue to monitor this feature and its potential impacts to the region next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
Lingering MVFR CIGs , primarily at CIU, this afternoon may continue right on through tonight with latest trends suggest those lower clouds bleed into northern lower toward and after sunset. Any lingering lower ceilings Thursday morning should lift to VFR through the day. Occasionally gusty west winds this afternoon diminish overnight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345>349.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346.

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