Sunrise 5:44 AM   Sunset 8:20 PM Moonrise 4:16 AM   Moonset 7:16 PM

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FXUS63 KMPX 072011 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 311 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms beginning to develop this afternoon across east-central Minnesota & western Wisconsin. A few strong storms are possible through this evening.

- Another round of thunderstorms & locally heavy rain is expected Wednesday night across far-southern Minnesota.

- Less active pattern is likely to end the week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

A line of spotty showers/storms developed late this morning over western Renville county, and has slowly progressed further north up into north-central Minnesota. As the associated boundary moves northeastward, development is expected further south and east of the current line. The NAM 3km seems to have the best handle of the storms this morning, which would put our main time period for development around 3pm local time and lasting through 9-10pm in western Wisconsin (if you buy into this specific model). Any storms that pop up over east-central Minnesota and western Wisconsin will have the potential to produce small hail, gusty winds, and a few brief spin-ups. The combination of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE, 25-30 kts of effective bulk shear, and a slight signal of enhanced stretching potential should be enough to support these organized storms capable of producing the aforementioned hazards. Spotty rainfall amounts close to 0.5"+ are likely for areas that are impacted by storms this afternoon, especially over western Wisconsin where more widespread rain chances is expected.

Another period of scattered showers/storms is on deck tomorrow afternoon into Thursday as the upper-level low over the Northern Plains spins a few blips of vorticity into southern Minnesota. This will prompt multiple rounds of slow-moving, training thunderstorms, with the main hazard expected to be excessive rainfall. Ensemble guidance continues to highlight the potential for localized rainfall amounts in exceedance of 3" along the Minnesota/Iowa border. The exact location of this heavy rainfall will likely be unknown until the event is underway, however the potential is there for a flooding threat in southern Minnesota Wednesday night into Thursday.

Drier conditions are likely following this system, as northwest flow sets up aloft, however isolated chances for diurnally-drive showers will remain in place most afternoons/evenings. A brief cooldown is expected on Thursday after the gradual passage of the upper low, then temperatures will generally trend up into the low-mid 70s over the next week or so. A return to a more active pattern does not look likely until mid-late next week potentially.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

A line of showers has popped up between KRWF and KAXN early this afternoon. This is much earlier/further west than models had this morning, so adjusted TAFs accordingly. In far western Wisconsin, a few light radar returns are starting to pop as well. Still thinking that later this afternoon TSRA will become more widespread from KMSP and points eastward, but will still be fairly scattered in nature. As such, have opted to go with TEMPO instead of prevailing. Thunder chances drop off quickly after 03z. Winds will turn southwesterly and become light and variable overnight as the surface low moves overhead.

KMSP...As mentioned above, still anticipating a few scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly after 22z.
Another chance for showers exists near the end of the period, but confidence is low just how far north these will extend.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind NE 10G20 kts.
FRI...Mainly VFR. Chance PM MVFR/-TSRA. Wind NW 15G25 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G20 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.

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