Sunrise 6:20 AM   Sunset 8:50 PM Moonrise 4:52 AM   Moonset 7:50 PM

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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 938 Am Edt Tue May 7 2024
Today - East wind 10 to 20 knots. Rain showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - South wind 5 to 10 knots. Patchy fog. Numerous showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Wednesday - Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Wednesday night - Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 071400 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1000 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain showers/thunder this afternoon into tonight.

- Rain/showers Wednesday and again Thursday.

- Patchy frost at times, particularly Thursday night?

UPDATE
Issued at 952 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Current satellite and radar depict showers and thunderstorms approaching the state, coming from the west/southwest. The most recent CAMs are showing an intial wave of showers moving northern MI mid afternoon. This intial round will deteriorate as it makes it way east, leading to mostly light to moderate rain. Embedded thunder could be seen over Manistee county with this. Rain will continue this evening and overnight with chances for embedded thunder increasing as we get into the night.
Mostly heavier rain and slightly gusty winds will be seen with these storms, however this will be looked at more today.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 257 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Upper-level ridging currently over the western Great Lakes will steadily push east today in advance of vertically stacked low pressure pinwheeling across the northern Plains. As a result, height falls are expected locally through the day ahead with increased shower/storm chances later this afternoon into tonight as mid-level energy pinwheels around upstream parent low pressure aiding to drive an occluded front toward the western Great Lakes.

Forecast Details:

Another cool start this morning, especially across interior areas.
Lots of sun this morning gradually gives way to more filtered sunshine through the midday and early afternoon hours as high clouds gradually increase and thicken from southwest to northeast.
Warm/moist advection on the heels of increasing southeast winds expected through the day with initial shower chances arriving across southwest portions of the forecast area between 18-21z. This shower activity is expected to work northeast over the remainder of the area through the late afternoon and evening hours. Embedded thunderstorms possible through the duration this afternoon/evening with primarily elevated instability progged up to 250-500 J/kg. Not anticipating a severe weather threat locally given our proximity to the warm front and associated warm sector, with those severe weather chances higher downstate into the Ohio Valley.

Most numerous showers expected to shift into eastern upper overnight with a relative lull across much of northern lower, although coverage may expand again over the tip of the mitt and northwest lower for the second half of the night into Wednesday morning.
Generally mild lows in the upper 40s to mid-50s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 257 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Strong northwesterly flow into the back of broad troughing over the central Plains, with primary upper low focused over SE MT; ridge continues to build through the Upper Midwest. Strong southerly LLJ up through the Plains ahead of strong BCZ along perimeter of the troughing aloft (981mb surface low over western SD, with boundary stretching down into TX as of 2-3z/07)...where the bulk of the convective activity has been occurring. Surface warm front at this same time stretches from Nebraska into the OH Valley...with abundant moisture (pwats approaching or exceeding 1.5in) south of this. E/SE flow becoming more evident along and north of this across the Upper Midwest, though surface high is still near enough to us (loosely over N. Lake Huron, though made more nebulous with a zonal-ish stationary boundary across southern Canada) that some land breezes developing over the Lake Huron coast.

Expecting lobe of energy to swing up into the region today with attendant warm front and convective activity through tonight. Looks like the boundary will stall out over northern MI tonight into Wednesday, as upstream upper low reluctantly meanders eastward across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Think some deformation axis rain should hang on across the UP/Straits region for much of Wednesday, though it may not be entirely quiet across northern Lower during the day, with some signals for daytime showers to develop...as the boundary attempts to slowly seep southward Wednesday evening with a weak niblet passing through Ontario.
Meanwhile...reluctant Plains energy finally ejecting Wednesday night into Thursday should result in another wave slipping into the OH Valley. This should keep the threat of a chilly/dreary rain around Michigan for Thursday, though some uncertainty in the position of the surface low lends some uncertainty in how far north this dreariness will end up. A chilly night possible Thursday, especially if the surface low ends up trending further south of the area. Brief improvements Friday should be followed quickly by a clipper system digging into the Upper Midwest for the weekend, keeping things on the cool and unsettled side. Decreasing certainty in how the pattern evolves for early next week, though it appears troughing still tries to settle into the central US somewhere...which could keep the cooler idea going into the middle of the month.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Rain/showers Wednesday and again Thursday...
Precip threat Wednesday will be a bit of a two-fold event. Think the primary focus for more of a stratiform-type/widespread rain will be across the Yoop/Straits, along and north of the boundary where deeper moisture should hold on longest (pwats still toward the high end of climo), amid a potential deformation axis over that region that could enhance localized forcing. Not expecting a ton of additional rain after 12z Wednesday, as moisture appears to start stripping out aloft
Meanwhile
south of the Bridge, and south of the stalled boundary...have a suspicion we may not be totally done with shower activity, maybe even a rumble of thunder, particularly as the boundary attempts to weakly sink southward through the area during the afternoon, during best diurnal heating...though this idea is much less clear.

Moisture plume with the next system begins to lift into the region as early as Wednesday evening from the southwest...though there is still some uncertainty in timing/position of how far north this gets...depending on how sharp the track of the shortwave trough ends up as some northern stream energy wraps up into it Thursday to help kick it out. Sharper, more well-defined system would try to wrap things further north, affecting more of our CWA ..keeping things cooler and drearier overall. Less well-defined/more zonal idea would be a little more progressive/a little further south, and could result in less dreariness...as we'd have a better shot at being north of the sharp cutoff with the precip shield
Either way
this should be a bit more of a standard synoptic rain for us on the north side of the surface system...with some potential mesoscale banding within the broader rain plume that could bring locally higher totals.

Patchy frost at times, particularly Thursday night?...think patchy frost could be possible at least Thursday night, with less certainty through the remainder of the week/weekend. If the system Thursday does end up further south, with a greater chance for high pressure settling in Thursday night, will have to keep an eye out for low temps to fall into the mid 30s again, similar to earlier this week.
However...it could be a bit of a catch-22, as I do have to wonder if the expected rain will keep the boundary layer a little more moist than what we saw earlier this week, which could keep things from bottoming out quite as much as it otherwise could. Still think we will be fairly seasonable on temps even so, with highs around 60 and lows in the upper 30s to around 40...which, compared to recently, will feel a little on the cool side.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 604 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

VFR conditions under just some passing high clouds through at least the first half of today. Expect lowering cigs and increasing shower chances to spread in from southwest to northeast this afternoon into this evening, eventually bringing MVFR to IFR conditions to the terminals. Light winds expected to become a bit gusty out of the southeast today.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LHZ345>347.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ341.

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