Thursday, September23, 2021
Privacy Policy
L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Elk Rapids, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 7:35PM Thursday September 23, 2021 2:56 PM EDT (18:56 UTC) Moonrise 8:03PMMoonset 9:06AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 1117 Am Edt Thu Sep 23 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 11 pm edt this evening...
Rest of the afternoon..North wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Rain showers in the late morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Tonight..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Scattered showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Friday..West wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday night..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Rain showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:202109240000;;060035 FZUS53 KAPX 231517 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1117 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-240000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elk Rapids, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 44.82, -85.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KAPX 231706 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 106 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

NEAR TERM. (Through Tonight) Issued at 1259 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

Showery and Cool Weather Continues Tonight

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Vertically stacked, and hence filling, low pressure making now steady north progress across southeast lower Michigan early this afternoon. Attendant deformation and increasingly pinched off elevated warm conveyor belt helping drive showers back northwest across the area . although rain amounts have remained fairly light (mostly under half an inch) as that warm conveyor belt weakens and dry air begins to get more entrained into the system. Winds remain a bit gusty out of the north and northeast, and when combined with those showers and clouds, has again kept temperatures several degrees below normal . with current readings mostly in the upper 40s to lower 50s (no doubt actually feels several degrees colder).

Low pressure will continue to make steady northeast progress tonight . reaching vicinity North Channel by sunrise Friday. Secondary shortwave trough expected to dive into the northern Plains late tonight . with this system slated to bring our next round of showers Friday night as it crosses the region.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges:

Addressing lingering showers and overnight temperature trends.

Details:

Expect main band of rain to continue to pivot northwest the remainder of this afternoon . decreasing in organization and intensity in the process as main moist conveyor belt gets shunted well off to our east. Scattered showers will continue much of tonight however within remnant deeper moisture of decaying deformation axis. May even see a bit of Lake Michigan moisture contribution as winds back northwest and shallow inversion top temperatures dip to the low to mid single digits. Aggressive drying arrives later tonight from the southwest, likely ending the shower threat for areas south of the Grand Traverse Bay region toward morning. Low levels of the atmosphere will remain well mixed tonight, again preventing temperatures from dropping to their full potential (like what occurred just to our northwest last night when reading dipped well down into the 30s), with overnight lows once again mainly in the 40s.

SHORT TERM. (Friday through Saturday) Issued at 345 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

High impact weather potential: Some lingering hazardous beach conditions may still be around for Friday. Some stronger showers/storms with sub-severe winds late Friday into early Saturday morning possible. Maybe some waterspout potential Saturday??

Upper level low pressure will be over northern Lake Huron to start off the forecast period and continue it's northward march towards Hudson Bay as another area of low pressure slips in behind this and begins it's southeastward trek towards the northern Great Lakes region. An associated cold front will sweep through the CWA late Friday and into early Saturday morning . producing showers and possibly some rumbles of thunder. No storms are expected to be severe at this time . however with the already strong wind fields forecast, wouldn't doubt to see any stronger showers/storms produce some strong winds (less than 55mph). QPF amounts should be around a half an inch by early Saturday morning from about the I-75 cooridor and west and all of eastern upper and tapering off to about a quarter inch or less over most of northeastern lower. Behind this front colder air will filter in on northwesterly winds as well as wrap around moisture. This colder air will bring in 850mb temperatures of about 3-5 degrees Celsius. This would produce delta Ts of around 15C, which will produce lake effect clouds and possibly some drizzle and light rain showers throughout the remainder of Saturday with west to northwesterly 925mb winds between 20-35 kts. Another thing to keep in mind is the waterspout potential for Saturday with Delta Ts near 15C, lake generated cloud depth near 10kft, and 850mb wind around 25-30kts.

Northwesterly winds will back to southwesterly throughout the day Friday as the aforementioned cold front approaches the forecast area and then veer to west to northwesterly behind the departing front Saturday. Gusts of 20-30 mph will be expected both ahead of and behind the cold front.

Temperatures will vary greatly from Friday and Saturday . with highs reaching into the mid 60s to near 70 Friday and barely reaching 60 on Saturday with the cooler air filtering in behind the departing front.

LONG TERM. (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 345 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

. Quieter Weather Expected .

High impact weather potential: None is expected.

A blocking pattern looks like it will set up across North America. This will be in the form of a Rex Block with low pressure in the Plains and a blocking upper level ridge centered across central Canada. In addition, there will be a downstream trough across eastern Canada. The long and short of all this is that northern Michigan is expected to sit on the western periphery of the downstream trough. Overall little precipitation is expected except for a couple of shower chances from short waves moving through the flow. Temperatures are expected to average close to normal with highs generally in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1259 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

MVFR to IFR cigs and visibilities in areas of light rain and mist expected to continue across the taf locations through much of tonight. Expect conditions to rapidly improve from southwest to northeast Friday morning as dry air overspreads the northern Lakes Gusty winds will steadily back tonight. reaching a more westerly direction by Friday morning.

MARINE. Issued at 1259 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

Decaying low pressure will continue to move northeast tonight, steadily backing winds to a northwest direction in the process. Very unstable over-water conditions and a lingering pressure gradient will continue to produce small craft advisory conditions on several of our nearshore waters. Winds continue to back to a southwest direction on Friday ahead of our next approaching cold front. Focus for strongest winds, again likely producing small craft conditions, centers on northern Lake Michigan. Southwest to west winds, at times quite gusty, continue right through Saturday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ017- 018-020-024>026-030-031-036-042-098-099. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345>349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321-322.

UPDATE . mb NEAR TERM . mb SHORT TERM . TL LONG TERM . TL AVIATION . mb MARINE . mb


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45183 23 mi56 min N 23 G 29 53°F 61°F4 ft
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 27 mi76 min NE 23 G 27 53°F 1011.9 hPa
45022 45 mi26 min NNE 18 G 23 51°F 66°F3 ft1011.9 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 61 mi76 min NE 8 G 11 50°F 1012.2 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 77 mi76 min NE 13 G 17 50°F 1012.2 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
Last
24hr
NE11
N11
G15
N14
G17
N11
G15
N12
G15
NE16
G20
NE13
G17
NE15
G20
NE24
NE25
NE20
G27
NE26
N24
N22
G28
N28
NE26
NE23
G29
NE23
G31
N23
G30
NE20
G28
N16
G20
N17
G21
N14
G19
N13
G17
1 day
ago
NW12
G18
NW12
G16
NW15
G19
NW11
G17
NW10
G16
NW13
G16
NW11
G16
NW11
G17
NW11
G15
N9
G12
NE15
NE11
G19
NE17
NE15
G19
N13
G16
NE13
G18
NE15
NE17
G21
NE15
G20
N17
N17
NE15
G19
N13
G16
NE12
G15
2 days
ago
NE3
G7
E5
SE13
G18
SE9
G12
SE14
SE11
G14
S11
S13
G18
S10
S13
S9
G12
S11
G16
S11
G16
S13
G16
S16
G20
SW11
G19
W9
G13
SW5
W5
G8
NW15
G21
NW8
G15
NW10
G18
NW13
G21
NW13
G19

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI9 mi63 minNNE 12 G 2210.00 miOvercast52°F47°F83%1010.4 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI18 mi61 minNNE 7 G 1710.00 miOvercast48°F45°F90%1011.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTVC

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
Last 24hrN14
G21
N11N14
G22
N14
G24
N13
G26
N16
G26
N15
G25
N15
G26
N12
G31
N16
G29
N17
G26
N14
G31
NE12
G24
N11
G27
N17
G31
N17
G26
N20
G29
N12
G28
N14
G23
NE10
G22
N8N9
G19
N13
G21
N12
G22
1 day agoN10
G16
NW8N9N8N11
G16
N8N9
G20
N9N10N13
G21
N8
G17
N9
G19
N10
G19
NE9NE15
G22
N13
G24
NE14
G26
NE13
G22
NE14
G21
N13
G21
N12
G20
N13
G28
NE14
G23
NE13
G21
2 days ago3SE8SE4S6S7S5SE8S5S8S9
G19
S12
G20
S10
G18
S8
G23
S10
G21
SW104CalmSW5NW8
G17
NW9NW10NW12NW9NW10

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help Weather Map
wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE.