Thursday, October21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Greilickville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:59AMSunset 6:47PM Thursday October 21, 2021 4:50 PM EDT (20:50 UTC) Moonrise 6:29PMMoonset 7:59AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 339 Pm Edt Thu Oct 21 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 2 am edt Friday...
Tonight..North wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Scattered showers after midnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Friday..North wind 5 to 10 knots. Scattered showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:202110220345;;045840 FZUS53 KAPX 211939 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI Issued by National Weather Service Marquette MI 339 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-220345-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Greilickville, MI
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location: 44.82, -85.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 211955 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI Issued by National Weather Service Marquette MI 355 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

NEAR TERM. (Through Tonight) Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

. Cooler with light lake effect rain .

High Impact Weather Potential . Minimal

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast . Sfc low continues to shift ENE over Georgian Bay this aftn with gusty northerly winds developing in its wake. Trailing shrtwv, as evident on GOES imagery, is supporting add'l shra across much of northern Lower Michigan as cooler air is being pulled in behind exiting sfc low. Despite 850mb temps reaching lake-effect thresholds behind the low, lake- effect clouds and showers have been mostly absent. Model soundings suggest fairly dry lower levels, which seems to match up well with GOES imagery downstream of Superior across ern Upper Michigan.

Primary Forecast Concerns . lake effect rain chances, perhaps a flurry or two.

Heading into tonight, models suggest add'l moisture to increase as well as growing inversions heights and saturation depths. Despite some sct to bkn skies early on, expect sky coverage to increase with lake-effect rain chances to increase across northwest lower and eastern upper tonight into tomorrow morning. Not expecting any real snow chances, but a flurry or two embedded in the rain may occur.

SHORT TERM. (Friday through Sunday) Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

. A Seasonably Cool, Cloudy, and Damp Weekend .

High Impact Weather Potential . Minimal

Primary Forecast Concerns . lake effect rain, perhaps some flurries

Pattern/Synopsis . An omega block pattern lingers across North America through this weekend until a powerful trough pivots into the Pacific Northwest early next week. A seasonable closed low downstream of the omega block spins near James Bay this weekend with multiple shortwaves rotating around it. This setup produces persist N/NW flow that results in widespread lake effect rain shower chances and below normal temperatures.

Forecast Details . Lake effect rain showers will be ongoing Friday morning with lake-850mb delta-Ts around 20C likely to persist into at least Sunday morning. It still appears that temperatures will be marginally too warm for frozen p-types, but the heaviest showers during the late night/early morning hours could have some snow/graupel mixing in. Any frozen hydrometeors might as well be rain since they're expected to melt on contact without accumulating. An energetic vort max and associated shortwave rotating around the closed low is expected to move through the CWA Friday night. Sounding analysis indicates inversion heights increase to ~8kft Friday night which should support more robust lake effect shower activity. Another weaker shortwave may clip northern portions of the CWA late on Saturday, but lake effect coverage/intensity will be decreasing by Sunday morning.

The next feature of interest is a surface low developing over the Central Plains on Sunday. This surface low seems likely to track well south of our CWA, but a frontogenic axis of precipitation seems likely to develop near the southern CWA border on Sunday afternoon and evening.

LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

High Impact Weather Potential . Minimal

Pattern Synopsis . 12Z model guidance is in reasonable agreement that the aforementioned surface low tracks across the Ohio Valley on Monday. At the same time, a ~1028mb surface ridge builds into Northern Ontario resulting in a fairly steep pressure gradient across the area. This should make for a raw Monday with steady easterly flow, overcast skies, and generally light rain. However, it should be noted that the 00Z ECMWF EFI and SoT product indicates potential for heavy rainfall just to our south on Sunday evening into Monday.

Our area should be drying out by Tuesday morning as ridging builds overhead while a powerful Pacific trough moves onto the Plains. A broad area of southerly flow advects a warmer than normal air mass into the area for Tuesday into Wednesday. Forecast confidence diminishes quickly on Wednesday, but there seems to be a weak consensus for a cold front passage Wednesday night or Thursday.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 129 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

Gusty northerly winds have taken over with colder air working behind a low pressure system exiting east over Lake Huron this aftn. IVR to MVFR conditions this aftn, with sct -shra, will transition to high-end MVFR to perhaps VFR at times this evening and early tonight. As cooler air continues to drop southward, lake-effect clouds and some iso shra will develop, with the better chances for TVC and mbL. Cigs will fall near the MVFR/VFR threshold later tonight behind a fropa with lake effect clouds and iso shra expected through Friday.

MARINE. Issued at 345 AM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

Sfc low exits ENE this evening across Georgian Bay as gusty northerly winds continue into this evening. Increasingly cooler air over the waters will lead to unstable conditions with gusty winds at times through the weekend; however, small craft conditions are not expected after tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 2 AM EDT Friday for LHZ345>349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 2 AM EDT Friday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EDT tonight for LSZ321-322.

NEAR TERM . JAW SHORT TERM . EK LONG TERM . EK AVIATION . JAW MARINE . JAW


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 27 mi70 min N 19G25 49°F 1011.9 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 54 mi70 min N 8G18 43°F 1011.9 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 70 mi70 min N 25G30 51°F 1011.9 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI7 mi57 minNNW 11 G 2110.00 miOvercast49°F40°F71%1010.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTVC

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N4N4NW50E3SE5N40N4E3NE40N500E3N7N14
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1 day agoW11SW4SW6S4SW4SW6S300SW6S5SW3SW6SW7S4SW5S4SW4SW7W7W7N6NE4N4
2 days agoNE400000000000000S40SW3SW5SW7SW7SW8
G17
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G22

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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