Wednesday, October20, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Salem, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:33AMSunset 6:20PM Wednesday October 20, 2021 6:29 AM PDT (13:29 UTC) Moonrise 5:40PMMoonset 6:30AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ255 Expires:202110202330;;974045 Fzus56 Kpqr 200948 Cwfpqr Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Portland Or 248 Am Pdt Wed Oct 20 2021 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Washington To Florence Oregon And Westward 60 Nm Pzz250-255-202330- Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm-coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 248 Am Pdt Wed Oct 20 2021
.gale warning in effect until 11 am pdt this morning...
.gale watch in effect from Thursday morning through Thursday evening...
Today..S wind 20 to 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Combined seas 17 ft with a dominant period of 12 seconds, subsiding to 12 ft with a dominant period of 11 seconds by late afternoon. Showers and a slight chance of tstms.
Tonight..SE wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves se 5 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 8 ft at 13 seconds.
Thu..SE wind 20 to 25 kt. Gusts to 30 kt, increasing to 35 kt by the afternoon. Combined seas 16 ft with a dominant period of 11 seconds in the afternoon.
Thu night..S wind 20 to 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening. Combined seas building to 14 ft with a dominant period of 12 seconds. Rain.
Fri..S wind 10 to 15 kt. Gusts to 20 kt in the morning. Wind waves S 3 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 15 ft at 14 seconds. Showers and a slight chance of tstms.
Fri night..S wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, rising to 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt after midnight. Wind waves S 4 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 15 ft at 14 seconds, becoming N at 14 seconds after midnight. Showers.
Sat..SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Wind waves 7 ft. W swell 11 ft.
Sun..SE wind 20 to 25 kt. Wind waves 6 ft. NW swell 12 ft.
PZZ200 248 Am Pdt Wed Oct 20 2021
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. An active pattern sets up for the remainder of the week as deep low pressure systems move into the northeast pacific. The next strong system impacts the waters Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Strongest wind will be over the outer waters. Additional storms are expected over the weekend into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Salem, OR
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location: 44.91, -123.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 201054 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 300 AM PDT Wed Oct 20 2021

SYNOPSIS. Expect a very active weather pattern to bring valley rain and high mountain snow every 12-24 hours through early next week. A brief burst in wind is likely early this morning with additional stronger bouts of wind possible over the weekend and/or early next week.

SHORT TERM. Today through Friday . Water vapor satellite imagery early this morning shows a negatively tilted shortwave trough lifting northeastward across Oregon. Strong mid level lift ahead of this feature has already resulted in one band of light to moderate rain lifting northeastward across the area overnight with rainfall amounts generally ranging between 0.05-0.20". The next band of rain tied to the low level front is lifting northeastward across western Oregon. Models suggest this front will weaken and do not see any obvious signs via satellite or radar imagery to suggest otherwise. Nonetheless, as the low level airmass destabilizes behind frontal passage early this morning, stronger winds aloft should mix down and produce some gusty winds along the coast and in the Willamette Valley. The period of highest concern will be between 5-8am where HREF guidance suggests wind gusts of 30-40 mph. The lower resolution global model ensemble systems such as the GEFS and EPS suggest wind gusts will top out more in the 20-30 mph range. Given it will likely be a blend between these two scenarios, made few changes to the inherited wind forecast this morning. Otherwise, expect off and on showers today with shower coverage generally decreasing from south to north this afternoon and evening. A rather quickly lowering subsidence inversion should limit thunder potential.

Models remain are in good agreement a bomb cyclogenesis event is just beginning to unfold near 140W and 40N. Most available guidance suggests an ill defined surface low pressure currently near ~1000mb will undergo rapid intensification and drop below 960mb by this time Thursday as it nears 137W and 48N. While the strongest winds will remain well offshore, it will push an occluding front towards the region Thursday. While very strong southerly winds will exist ahead of this front over the waters off the Oregon and Washington coast, global ensemble guidance continues to suggest these winds will have a difficult time pushing inland. However, there are at least a few members of the GEFS and slightly more in the EPS system that like HREF guidance, suggest 35-45 mph wind gusts could surface in the central, and particularly, the southern Willamette Valley Thursday midday/afternoon. Some of this variability is likely due to variation in ensemble guidance on just how strong this low pressure gets by this time tomorrow as some solutions suggest it will drop near 950mb.

Finally, a south-north oriented band of rain will shift eastward across the area Thursday afternoon and evening. There is some hint in model guidance that a narrow, but intense burst of rain may arrive with frontal passage, particularly along the coast. Given its orientation do not think it will create too many issues, but depending on the exact timing, it may hit the I5 corridor around the time of the Thursday evening commute. Given its expected south-north orientation, not too much concern that any waves that develop along the front will result in the particularly intense rain training for 30+ minutes over one of the burn areas in the Cascades so hydro concerns remain limited.

Otherwise, expect cooler air to spread into the region Thursday night and precipitation to turn more showery in nature Friday. /Neuman

LONG TERM. Friday night through Tuesday . Confidence remains high that we will remain in a very active weather pattern that will result in an extended stretch of wet weather and likely beneficial rains. Expect several stretches of 3-9 hours of steadier rain followed by 12-24 hours of off and on showers over the weekend and early next week. This is in response to a strong zonally oriented jet streaming across the north Pacific and into the western US. A series of shortwave troughs will race eastward along the jet and help to initiate cyclogenesis over the northeast Pacific this weekend and early next week.

The first storm system will generate a low pressure over the northeast Pacific that will approach Haida Gwaii Friday night. This will result in an occluding front pushing into the region late Friday night and Saturday morning. This storm system appears likely to bring a solid shot of rain to the region, but rainfall amounts should remain well below amounts that bring flooding concerns. Some strong winds may push onto the coast, but winds appear unlikely to reach high wind warning criteria along the coast per the latest GEFS and EPS guidance.

After a brief break in the wet weather late Saturday, the next developing low pressure will form across the northeast Pacific. There remains quite a bit of spread among the ensemble members on where this low pressure will track and exactly how strong it will be, but a significant number of the EPS, GEFS and CMCE ensemble members suggest it will bomb out west of 130W. This scenario should limit wind impacts across the region Sunday. However, there are certainly a decent number of members that bring the low pressure east of 130W, and thus open the door for significant wind impacts spreading onto our coast and even inland. Interestingly, a large number of these members are found in the EPS system relative to the GEFS and CMCE. In addition, some of the farther north low pressure solutions that would result in less wind concerns for our area, do result in the attendant WSW-ENE oriented front and atmospheric river lifting a bit farther north and at least clipping our southern zones instead of remaining farther south over the northern California and southern Oregon coast. The bottom line is there remains quite a bit of uncertainty around Sunday, but there are multiple scenarios that could bring significant impacts to the region so stay tuned.

Uncertainty in where and to what degree another low pressure will develop over the northeast Pacific grows considerably as we move into Monday and Tuesday with ensemble solutions literally all over the place Bottom line. expect unsettled weather to continue . it just remains highly uncertain whether or not we see significant impacts. /Neuman

AVIATION. 12Z TAFS: Precipitation has spread over the area early this morning. However, conditions as of 09Z are still primarily VFR. There have been areas of MVFR vis, mainly in the interior valleys. The frontal boundary reaches the central coast of Oregon at or slightly after 12Z Wed and then should be along a KHQM to KEUG line by 15Z. Guidance suggests low-end VFR to prevail ahead and along the frontal boundary, but would expect areas of MVFR, especially along the coast. Gusty south wind is expected with the frontal passage, strongest between 12-15Z when brief gusts between 25-35 kt will be possible. Some of the higher resolution models show south to southwest wind 40-50 kt at FL020 through 18Z. LLWS will be a concern and will continue to include in the 12Z TAFS. The wind direction does not look to change very much between the surface and 2000 ft, so expect predominantly speed shear rather than directional shear.

Precipitation diminishes after 18Z, with predominant VFR through 12Z Thu. There is a chance for local IFR to MVFR vis in the interior valleys after 06Z Thu as wind speeds diminish.

For detailed regional Pac NW aviation weather information, go online to: https://weather.gov/zse

KPDX AND APPROACHES . Low-end VFR conditions to continue through 18Z this morning. Frontal boundary forecast to move across the terminal and vicinity around 15Z. East to Southeast wind around 10 kt will shift to Southeast to South with the frontal passage with gusts to 25 kt. LLWS will be a concern through 18Z with surface and low-level East to Southeast wind and South to Southwest wind 35-45 kt at FL020. Shower activity diminishes after 18Z, with VFR then prevailing through 12Z Thu. Weishaar

MARINE. A strong front was moving through the coastal waters early this morning as seen in infra-red satellite imagery. The strongest wind as of 09Z Wed was over the far outer waters, generally beyond 50 nm. Buoy 46089 reported gusts to 31 kt as of 08Z. The NAM, GFS, Hi-Res FV3 and ECMWF valid 12Z appear to be too strong with boundary layer wind speeds. Will maintain the current suite of gale warnings. Not as confident with the inner water gale warning. The 00Z GEFS valid 12Z Wed indicates only a 20 to 30 percent chance of wind speeds 30 kt or greater near shore. The majority of models agree wind speeds slowly diminish after 18Z today. Will likely need to replace the gales with a short-term small craft advisory ahead of the next potentially strong system.

This next system is forecast to impact the waters Wednesday night and Thursday. Models continue to show differences with the central low pressure strength and corresponding boundary layer wind speeds. Models are in decent agreement depicting a rapidly deepening surface low out near 45N 135W Wed night/early Thu morning. A few 00Z ECMWF ensemble members show a 950 mb central low pres near 45N 135W valid 12Z Thu. Confidence is high that another round of gale force gusts will occur over the outer waters with this system, with a few models showing 50-55 kt boundary layer gusts Thu morning out beyond 50 nm. Not confident enough to upgrade the gale watch to a storm watch. Confidence is lower for gale force gusts over the inner waters. There will be a considerable east component to the low-level wind over the inner waters, which is not favorable for gales. Will continue with the current gale watches. Would go ahead and issue the gale warning for the outer waters, but do not want to create potential confusion with the current gale. The active pattern looks to continue through the weekend with additional gale force wind periods likely.

Total wave heights are running about 4-5 ft higher than the spectral guidance. Buoy 46050 was at 19 ft earlier tonight, but has eased to 15 ft as of 09Z. The Astoria Canyon buoy reported 17.7 ft at 08Z, but was at 16.3 ft at 09Z. The peak wave heights may have just occurred and should continue a slow decline through the morning. Seas will be at or just above 10 ft Wed evening. The second round of gale force winds expected Wednesday night and Thursday will allow seas to rise back into the 15 to 20 ft range, highest over the outer waters. Seas 20-25 ft are possible late Wed night through Thu morning out near 60 nm. Seas then subside beginning Friday afternoon, but will remain above 10 ft through the weekend. Weishaar

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . None. PZ . Gale Watch from this evening through Thursday evening for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from 10 to 60 nm.

Gale Warning until 11 AM PDT this morning for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from 10 to 60 nm.

Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT early this morning for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 10 nm.

Gale Warning until 11 AM PDT this morning for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 5 AM PDT Thursday for Columbia River Bar.





Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR 56 mi71 min S 20G25 52°F 54°F1005.9 hPa
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 58 mi89 min S 30G35 53°F
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 64 mi71 min 54°F1003.7 hPa

Wind History for South Beach, Yaquina River, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Salem - McNary Field, OR2 mi33 minS 19 G 2610.00 miOvercast and Breezy55°F46°F72%1006.8 hPa
McMinnville, McMinnville Municipal Airport, OR20 mi36 minS 20 G 2610.00 miOvercast and Breezy54°F47°F77%1006.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSLE

Wind History from SLE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr000000003NW3N6N400S3S4SE7SE3NW3W3W3SE5S20
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1 day ago000000030SW6S5S5S5S5S4S500000000
2 days agoSE6S6S7S7SW4S7S8S9S11S8W5W4NW5NW7NW5NW7NW9NW5NW7NW60000

Tide / Current Tables for Nestucca Bay entrance, Oregon
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Nestucca Bay entrance
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Wed -- 01:03 AM PDT     6.90 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:09 AM PDT     1.42 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:34 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:38 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:57 AM PDT     Full Moon
Wed -- 12:58 PM PDT     7.83 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:21 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 06:41 PM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:47 PM PDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Kernville, Siletz River, Oregon
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Kernville
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:32 AM PDT     5.40 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:35 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:38 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:50 AM PDT     1.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:57 AM PDT     Full Moon
Wed -- 01:27 PM PDT     6.12 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:21 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 06:42 PM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:28 PM PDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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