Sunrise 6:00 AM   Sunset 8:18 PM Moonrise 1:33 AM   Moonset 10:05 AM

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PZZ255 Coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 847 Am Pdt Tue Sep 13 2022
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 pm pdt this evening - .
Rest of today - SW wind to 5 kt. Wind waves sw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Widespread dense fog and a chance of showers in the morning, then areas of dense fog in the afternoon. Tonight - N wind to 5 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 9 seconds. Areas of dense fog in the evening. Patchy dense fog after midnight. Wed - N wind 5 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy dense fog in the morning. Wed night - NW wind 5 kt. Wind waves W 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 9 seconds. Thu - SE wind 5 kt, veering to W in the afternoon. Wind waves se 1 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the W at 4 seconds in the afternoon. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds. Thu night - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds. Fri - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 3 ft. Sat - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 ft.

PZZ200 218 Am Pdt Tue Apr 30 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - Weak low pressure will continue to move across the northern waters through Tuesday morning. High pressure brings calmer conditions Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Another system approaches later Wednesday.

FXUS66 KPQR 300505 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Portland OR 1004 PM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024

UPDATE
We just issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the S WA and N OR Cascades as far south as Linn County, including Santiam and Tombstone Passes along US Highways 20/22. High-res forecast models look increasingly impressive with QPF as our next upper level trough swings through the area. With many areas now expected to receive 0.50" or more of QPF (HRRR now showing 80-100% chances of this for the Cascades Santiam Pass northward), and snow ratios expected to be around 10:1 for the Cascade passes and above, it now appears there will be enough snow to warrant a Winter Wx Advisory for up to 8 inches of snow for our Cascades Linn County northward. The advisory runs 3 AM-6 PM, though it may need to be extended if convection over the Willamette Valley persists into the evening. Weagle

SYNOPSIS
A relatively cold weather system continues to move through the region today, with another arriving tomorrow morning. Tomorrow, expect lowland rain showers, Cascade snow showers, and potential for thunderstorms. With any thunderstorms, potential hazards include lightning, small hail, heavy rain, and gusty winds. Warming and dry conditions briefly come Wednesday, followed by another storm early Thursday morning. Potential unsettled weather may continue into the weekend.

SHORT TERM
Now through Wednesday... Showery activity continues across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington as a cold surface front pushes over the Cascades, leaving post frontal showers. Snow levels will remain between 2500-3500 feet for the rest of today, bringing 1-2 inches more snow to the Cascades.
As for thunderstorms, while the front moving east over the Cascades has created cloud breaks for warming, the front exiting the region has lessened the overall forcing, reducing chances of thunderstorms. However, thunderstorms still remain possible (15%) until this evening, especially with post frontal showers and warming present. With models showing 500 mb temperatures around -30 to -35 deg C and steepening lapse rates, small hail is possible for areas north of Lincoln City/Salem. Sure enough, as of 2PM, thunderstorms have started to develop along with some small hail, so expect thunderstorms to last until this evening.
Thunderstorms within the Cascades could persist this evening as the system exits east. Otherwise, for today expect around 0.25 inch more rain accumulation in the Coast Range, and under 0.10 inch more in the lowlands, with showers decreasing this evening.

Next low pressure system moves southeast into the north Oregon Coast tonight/tomorrow morning, bringing more thunderstorms, lowland rainfall, and Cascade snow. Similar to today, there is a 15-25% chance of thunderstorms across the region. Expect rain accumulations around 0.25-0.50 inch along the coast and inland valleys. The Cascades will see another round of snowfall, with snow levels around 2000 feet and 2 to 6 inches of snow within 24 hours ending at 11 PM Tuesday.

Tuesday night to Wednesday, conditions begin to dry up as the second system pushes east and upper level high pressure builds.
We could see some clearing Tuesday night, which could lead to radiational cooling and the potential for frost development.
Currently, it looks like the highest frost potential will be in the Coast Range, Willapa Hills, and Upper Hood River Valley.
Based on the latest probabilistic guidance, these locations have a greater than 70-90% chance of Wednesday morning lows dropping below 35 degrees. For the Willamette Valley, that probability is around 30-40%. Warming temperatures will likely return Wednesday, with a 60-80% chance of highs exceeding 58 degrees for inland valleys.
-JH

LONG TERM
Thursday through Sunday...WPC cluster analyses have around 65% of ensemble members suggesting an additional trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest Thursday.
In this case, we would see another round of light precipitation.
The other 35% of ensembles members suggest ridging, which would maintain drier conditions. Current NBM probabilities for 24 hour QPF exceeding 0.25 inch ending 5 PM Thursday is less than 20% for inland valleys and 50-60% for the Coast Range and Cascades.

Friday looks relatively drier as the majority of WPC clusters suggest transient ridging; however, the ridging doesn't look particularly strong. This may allow for some shortwave troughing to push through and bring some precipitation. The majority of clusters still show precipitation on Friday, despite them also showing ridging. With this uncertainty, NBM PoPs of 25-50% across the region Friday look reasonable.

Saturday to Sunday, the majority of the clusters are showing a troughing pattern returning. However there is uncertainty with the strength of the next trough. About half of the ensemble members show weak troughing moving into the Pacific Northwest, while the other half show a deeper trough developing over the NE Pacific. The members that show the deeper trough have it progressing southward toward southern Oregon and northern California by Sunday, and becoming negatively tilted. In either scenario, unsettled weather with showery activity would continue for our area. -JH/Alviz


AVIATION
Conditions mostly improving towards VFR as of 22z Mon as showers start to decrease in coverage, but a few intermittent bouts of MVFR are still occurring in passing showers. Showers will continue to produce mountain obscurations into the evening. A few breaks of sunshine have helped to develop enough instability for a few lightning strikes near KSLE in the past hour. There remains a 10-20 percent chance of thunderstorms across the area this afternoon, but thunder chances diminish after 00z. Winds out of the W-NW at around 10 kt through the afternoon.
Another disturbance arrives after 06z Tue, bringing increased shower activity and a return of MVFR conditions 08-10z Tue as winds shift southerly through the end of the period.

Notes: The ASOS at KTTD is only available via the dial in option.
The AWOS at KMMV is still out of commission, but a tentative work around has been implemented. There is no estimated time of full repair and restoration for either of these locations.

PDX AND APPROACHES...Mainly VFR with cigs above FL040 through this evening, with a few intermittent dips below FL040 possible in passing showers. Can't rule out a thunderstorm near the terminal through around 00z Tue, but chances are small enough to not include in the TAF. Conditions trend back towards MVFR after 10z Tue as another approaching disturbance brings increased shower activity. W-SW winds 5-10 kt this afternoon, diminishing in the evening and then turning southerly and increasing back to 10 kt after 10z Tue. /CB

MARINE
Blustery conditions characterized by gusty west winds and scattered showers continue across the coastal waters in the post frontal environment this afternoon, maintaining low end Small Craft Advisories as winds occasionally gust to 25 kt and seas linger around 8 to 10 ft per recent observations. Expect an uptick in these conditions as the next system arrives late this evening, with winds turning a bit more southwesterly overnight in response to a weak surface low cross the northern waters. Winds will shift northwesterly and start to diminish Tuesday morning as the low moves inland near Cape Falcon, but a building westerly swell will maintain seas around 10 ft and keep the current small craft headlines in place through Tuesday evening. Weak high pressure will bring a brief lull in conditions Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. More active weather then returns later Wednesday into Thursday as another low approaches the waters. /CB

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM PDT Tuesday for ORZ126-127.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM PDT Tuesday for WAZ211.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ210-251>253- 271>273.

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Nestucca Bay entrance
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Tue -- 02:37 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:49 AM PDT     6.72 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:04 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:07 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:45 PM PDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:47 PM PDT     5.35 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:20 PM PDT     Sunset
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Nestucca Bay entrance, Oregon, Tide feet

Kernville
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Tue -- 02:36 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:18 AM PDT     5.25 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:06 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:09 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:26 PM PDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:16 PM PDT     4.18 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:20 PM PDT     Sunset
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Kernville, Siletz River, Oregon, Tide feet

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