Saturday, October16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Landfall, MN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 6:28PM Friday October 15, 2021 11:05 PM CDT (04:05 UTC) Moonrise 3:52PMMoonset 12:43AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Landfall, MN
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location: 44.92, -93     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 160352 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1052 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

UPDATE. Issued at 1043 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

Updated to include 06z aviation discussion below.

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

The key messages for the weather over the next two days is a few scattered showers north of I-94 this evening. Then clearing skies overnight with cool temperatures and patchy frost toward morning.

TODAY - Early afternoon satellite imagery with surface obs and radar reflectivity showed a compact shortwave trough across the Upper Mississippi River Valley, with clouds across most of Minnesota and much of Wisconsin. Cold air aloft within this trough together with daytime heating led to a few showers across the region, so continued the trend from the previous forecast with afternoon chances for rain.

TONIGHT - Forecast guidance continue to show clouds dissipating as they exit the region this evening. That should lead to mostly clear skies east of I-35, which will set the stage for efficient radiational cooling. Did trend toward the lower end of guidance, and the extra hours of cooling should allow the surface winds to decouple across much of Minnesota, so did issue a frost advisory and freeze warnings for several of these counties. If clouds hang around longer than forecast, and if surface winds don't go calm overnight, then temperatures will be a bit warmer than forecast.

SATURDAY - Warm air advection will overspread the region and bring mostly sunny skies with highs in the 60s. Forecast soundings show westerly winds increasing again during the late morning and afternoon.

LONG TERM. (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

The key messages for next week is dry weather through Tuesday, and then rain chances returning for Tuesday night into Thursday. Most locations will probably see rain, but the current forecast chances are only 25 to 35 percent during any six hour period because of uncertainty in timing.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY - Dry and mild conditions. An upper level ridge will build across the region, with low level warm air advection. Afternoon highs will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Meanwhile, further upstream the next storm system will cross the Rockies and approach from the west.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY - The aforementioned upper level wave will arrive Tuesday night. Moisture advection and isentropic ascent ahead of this wave will lead to clouds and chances for rain. The WPC Cluster analysis of GFS/GEM/EC ensembles generally show a slower solution, and a faster solution, but they both have rain across much of Minnesota and northern Wisconsin regardless of which one. For that reason we do expect a fairly widespread rain event sometime between Tuesday night and Thursday, but right now the chances for rain at any specific time are fairly low. Looking ahead, cooler weather will follow for the end of the week and next weekend.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1043 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

VFR conditions expected throughout this TAF period with skies clearing out overnight followed by mostly clear skies for the duration of the TAF period. The main impact to aviation on Saturday will be gusty westerly winds with gusts up to around 20 mph.

KMSP . No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Sun . VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts. Mon . VFR. Wind S 10 kts. Tue . VFR. Wind VRB 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MN . Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Saturday for Benton-Blue Earth-Brown- Chippewa-Faribault-Freeborn-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur- Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Nicollet-Redwood-Renville- Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Swift-Waseca-Watonwan-Wright- Yellow Medicine.

Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Saturday for Douglas-Morrison-Pope- Stevens-Todd.

WI . None.

UPDATE . JPC SHORT TERM . JRB LONG TERM . JRB AVIATION . JPC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Downtown Holman Field, MN3 mi73 minW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy47°F37°F69%1014.9 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN9 mi71 minW 310.00 mi44°F37°F74%1014.2 hPa
Lake Elmo Airport, MN9 mi71 minW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy43°F37°F81%1014.6 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN12 mi73 minW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy46°F37°F71%1015 hPa
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN20 mi2.3 hrsWSW 410.00 miOvercast48°F39°F71%1014.2 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN23 mi73 minWSW 510.00 miFair43°F36°F76%1014.5 hPa
Minneapolis, Airlake Airport, MN23 mi71 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy43°F36°F76%1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSTP

Wind History from STP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr0SE3SE40SE5S3000W3SW5SW6W9
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1 day agoS8SW12
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2 days ago0000E5SE3E4SE9SE5SE10SE12
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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