Sunrise 5:51 AM   Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 3:59 AM   Moonset 5:59 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

FXUS63 KMPX 070413 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1113 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and a few rumbles of thunder are expected tonight into Tuesday morning with up to an inch of precip possible.

- A Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms exists tomorrow afternoon/evening for far eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. The main threat is hail and gusty winds, but there is a non-zero chance for a tornado.

- Continued chances for showers with cooler temperatures through the end of the week.

UPDATE
Issued at 706 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

No major changes to the forecast for today through Tuesday.
Fine-tuned the timing of the rainfall for later this evening and overnight. The main concern is for a few stronger wind gusts to mix down to the surface, but the overall threat for severe weather remains low. Looking ahead to tomorrow, 18Z forecast soundings off the NAM/HRRR and 21Z RAP show an uncapped environment with close to 1000 J/kg. HiRes models have many showers/thunderstorms across the region during the afternoon, and as the previous shift mentioned, a few of these could produce hail and gusty winds. There is also a non-zero chance for a tornado or two depending on the surface instability and boundaries.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Cloud cover has continued to increase through the day with strong southerly flow ahead of the expansive synoptic scale system that is bringing a variety of hazards to the central CONUS.
Temperatures around noon had already reached the upper 60s and low 70s, but with cloud cover becoming thicker and more prevalent, we'll likely only see a few more degrees of heating for today. Winds have gusted into the 35-40 MPH range across western Minnesota where a Wind Advisory remains in effect. Wind speeds of 25-30 MPH are more common further east, but a few higher gusts remain possible. As far as this evening's showers and thunderstorms go, CAMs are in good agreement that any activity will hold off until after 00z. A northwest to southeast oriented line will push across the southern half of Minnesota through the overnight hours with the threat for thunder staying confined to far southwest Minnesota. The showers will move into the Twin Cities area after 06z and finally into Wisconsin by 09z. QPF amounts remain fairly unchanged from the previous forecast (widespread 0.25-0.50" with more localized totals of 0.5-1.0")with the bulk of the precip ending by mid morning with the now occluded front stretching across Minnesota. The focus then shifts to tomorrow afternoon and the potential for the development of a few strong to severe storms across far eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. The triple point associated with the low that continue to spin over the Dakotas should remain just to the south of our forecast area to start the day, but is expected to lift northward into western Wisconsin by the afternoon. This region has been highlighted by a Marginal Risk in the SPC SWODY2. Models have 700-1200 J/kg of CAPE across far southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin tomorrow afternoon, which would be more than sufficient to get some storms as the front continues to occlude/move east. The primary hazards will be hail and gusty winds with any of the stronger storms that develop. There's still some uncertainty regarding the initiation time and just how far east storms will develop, but generally the timing looks to be during the late afternoon and evening hours. Any severe threat will diminish after 02-03z as instability wanes and the line of showers and storms exits to the east.

Heading into Wednesday, there's not much change from the previous forecasts. The upper low meanders slowly over the Dakotas and into Minnesota with a few embedded waves leading to some additional precip chances through Thursday, mainly for the southern half of the forecast area. Continued low PoPs exist through the end of the week with a separate shortwave dropping down out of Canada Friday. QPF totals will be around 0.5-0.75" throughout those three days with locally higher amounts possible. Temperature wise, Thursday is still on track to be the coolest day of the period with highs in the low 60s before rebounding quickly to end the week near 70 once again.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1109 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

VFR conditions will transition to MVFR/IFR as a line of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms moves across the region affecting all TAF sites. Winds will be southeast ahead of this line of precipitation, but then become more southerly and eventually southwest late Tuesday into Tuesday evening. There is another chance for thunderstorms to develop Tuesday afternoon and evening at KMSP, KRNH, and KEAU.

KMSP...Showers and thunderstorms will move through after midnight tonight, and exit Tuesday morning. One change from the previous forecast is that confidence is increasing that showers and thunderstorms will develop again Tuesday afternoon and evening. A few could produce gusty winds and small hail.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-TSRA late. Wind NE 10-15 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind NE 15-20G25-30 kts.
FRI...Mainly VFR. Chance PM MVFR/-TSRA. Wind W 10-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Minneapolis, MN,