Wednesday, January19, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Maple City, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 8:05AMSunset 5:34PM Wednesday January 19, 2022 1:59 AM EST (06:59 UTC) Moonrise 7:15PMMoonset 9:40AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ344 Sleeping Bear Point To Grand Traverse Light Mi- Point Betsie To Sleeping Bear Point Mi- 1016 Pm Est Tue Jan 18 2022
.gale warning in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
Overnight..West wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Patchy drizzle after midnight, then chance of drizzle, snow and slight chance of freezing drizzle after midnight. Waves 7 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest wind up to 30 knots. Scattered snow showers. Waves 6 to 9 feet.
Wednesday night..Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Scattered snow showers. Waves 4 to 7 feet.
Thursday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ344 Expires:202201191130;;603586 FZUS53 KAPX 190316 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1016 PM EST Tue Jan 18 2022 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ344-345-191130-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Maple City, MI
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location: 44.95, -85.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 190449 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1149 PM EST Tue Jan 18 2022

UPDATE. Issued at 924 PM EST Tue Jan 18 2022

994mb low pressure is near the Keweenaw. A warm front is lifting into northern lower MI, with a cold front moving into eastern WI. Unseasonably warm air has pushed into nw lower MI (37f at TVC), but this incursion will be temporary. Cold advection will be ongoing across all of northern MI by Wed morning.

The most widespread precip has exited, though patchy/convective cells are merging into the back edge of the precip area, sustaining things a bit longer. Synoptic snow will generally continue to lift ne-ward, eventually exiting the area.

Still appears to be a window for some drizzle nonsense tonight, mainly with and just behind the cold front. Low-level moisture deepens up toward 850mb/5k ft late in the overnight, and just before the much colder air returns to the area (turning precip to lake effect snow).

NEAR TERM. (Through Tonight) Issued at 318 PM EST Tue Jan 18 2022

High impact potential: Clipper system brings accumulating snow and increasingly gusty winds into this evening. A gradual transition to lake effect snow tonight. Greatest accumulation expected across eastern upper Michigan. Areas of freezing drizzle possible overnight after the steadier snow ends.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Snow amounts/duration, and freezing drizzle potential.

Low pressure currently centered over the upper Midwest will propagate east to near International Falls by 00z and to north of Lake Huron by 12z Wednesday. A band of snow will pivot northeast across the area through early evening, with just some lingering flurries, patchy freezing drizzle or drizzle (temps above freezing in some areas) possible across much of northern lower thereafter. Steadier snow continues across the tip of the mitt and eastern upper through mid-evening before the best synoptic forcing/moisture shift into northeast Ontario as low pressure begins to slide by to our north. Patchy freezing drizzle is possible across eastern upper late tonight as the steadier snow ends.

A fairly wide range of snow accumulations expected with 3-6" across eastern upper, 1-3" along/north of M-32, and an inch or less south of this area. Winds will become gusty (20-30+ mph, highest near the lakeshores) late this afternoon through tonight. While this shouldn't be an issue for the majority of northern Michigan given the relatively minor snow amounts, some potential for blowing snow does exist across eastern upper, including Beaver, Mackinac and Bois Blanc Islands. The current advisory looks good for this area given those potential impacts.

A gradual transition from light mixed precipitation to lake effect snow tonight as lake processes slowly ramp up. Winds will veer more west-northwesterly through this time frame as cold air advection takes over and H8 temps drop to 10-12 below zero across northwest lower/eastern upper by 12z Wednesday. After this evening's chances of mixed light snow/freezing drizzle/drizzle, there could be another period of light mixed precipitation overnight during this transition time before colder air moves in Wednesday morning.

Temperatures will be steady or slowly rising for the first half of tonight, with much of northern lower getting near or inching just above freezing, before temperatures fall late with increasing cold air advection. Colder across eastern upper, with readings primarily in the 20s.

SHORT TERM. (Wednesday through Friday) Issued at 318 PM EST Tue Jan 18 2022

. Accumulating snow continues .

High Impact Weather Potential . Moderate. Accumulating Lake effect behind clipper Wednesday into Thursday.

Forecast/Details: A reinforcing shot of cold air behind the clipper will bring an extended period of lake effect Wednesday into Thursday. Early Wednesday morning the transition to lake effect will already be underway as colder air pours in on WNW winds. After a weak surface trough moves through winds will become more uniform out of the northwest late morning. Overlake instability increases drastically through the day. 850mb temperatures start around -14C (for deltaT's around 17 or 18) increasing to -20C by the evening, pushing deltaT's into the mid 20s. Although there is some discrepancy in forecast inversion heights, believe they will remain around 6 or 7 kft through the day . leading to some likely beefy bands through the afternoon and evening. Ice cover on the northern end of Lake Michigan will significantly hinder LES production for the tip of the mitt. Winds veer from WNW to more NW through the day, shifting the bands slightly more southwest through the evening. The overlake environment remains pretty similar through Wednesday night, although winds continue veering, gaining a more northerly component, targeting areas along and south of Grand Traverse Bay. Strong high pressure (~1040mb+) moves into the upper Mississippi Valley early Thursday. The wind field across Nrn Michigan becomes disorganized thanks to lake aggregate troughing battling with the incoming high pressure. Still believe areas around the Bay and south have the best chances through Thursday. Otherwise temperatures remain near normal Tuesday and Wednesday before dropping again into the teens on Thursday. The high pressure continues across the lower Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday (leading to a dry and relatively quiet period) before the next front approaches from the west.

LONG TERM. (Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 318 PM EST Tue Jan 18 2022

High Impact Weather Potential . Minimal for now.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast . A strong surface low moves across James Bay into Quebec late Friday into Saturday, dragging a cold front across Michigan late Saturday. This brings more snow chances through the day . and with southwesterly flow already in place on the backside of the high, we'll have some ambient moisture for the front to work with . and this'll keep temperatures around normal. Colder Sunday with lake effect possible behind the front. Another system looks to scoot through the Ohio Valley early next week, but there's plenty on uncertainty in guidance regarding placement and timing with this. Another strong Arctic high will bring another cold blast heading into the middle of the week, with highs once again in the single digits and low teens.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1149 PM EST Tue Jan 18 2022

Mainly MVFR.

994mb low pressure is just north of MQT. A cold front is progressing across eastern WI, and will cross northern lower MI overnight. Widespread -SN has ended. Patchy -DZ/-FZDZ will develop overnight, with and just behind the cold front. On Wednesday, as colder air pushes in, precip will turn to lake effect snow showers.

Gusty winds will veer w by Wed morning, and nw in the afternoon.

MARINE. Issued at 318 PM EST Tue Jan 18 2022

Southeast winds increase late today in advance of a clipper system set to cross the area through tonight. Winds veer more west-northwesterly by late tonight. Primarily small craft advisory conditions for northern Michigan's nearshore waters, but a few gale gusts possible on Lake Huron with better chances over portions of Lake Michigan where gale warnings have been issued. Gustiness remains in place Wednesday before gradually diminishing Wednesday night.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 4 AM EST Wednesday for MIZ086>088- 095-096. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until midnight EST tonight for MIZ097- 098. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 PM EST Wednesday for LHZ345-349. GALE WARNING from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Wednesday for LHZ346>348. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ323-341-342. GALE WARNING until 1 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ344>346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 PM EST Wednesday for LSZ321-322.

UPDATE . JZ NEAR TERM . JK SHORT TERM . STJ LONG TERM . STJ AVIATION . JZ MARINE . JK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 24 mi79 min WSW 30G35 37°F 998 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 55 mi79 min NE 19G22 38°F 1001 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 63 mi79 min SW 15G19 33°F

Wind History for Port Inland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI21 mi66 minWSW 17 G 2510.00 miOvercast40°F31°F70%998.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTVC

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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