Thursday, October21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Falcon Heights, MN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:35AMSunset 6:18PM Thursday October 21, 2021 3:02 PM CDT (20:02 UTC) Moonrise 5:59PMMoonset 7:31AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Falcon Heights, MN
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location: 44.96, -93.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 211952 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 252 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 252 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021

We will see some lingering clouds this afternoon to early evening associated with the low that provided yesterday's rain. With high pressure moving in now the forecast is trending towards clear sky and light winds with little chance for any precipitation. The main impact this evening through Friday night will be the cold temperatures. With both overnights expected to have temperatures fall near to below freezing. While we are past the 90th percentile of first freeze dates for our area this could be the first hard freeze chance this fall for many locations across southern Minnesota and west central Wisconsin. Having a first freeze this week is more typical of Tennessee or Arkansas than Minnesota and Wisconsin!

We could see a chance for some sprinkles or even flurries in parts of west central Minnesota late tonight into early tomorrow morning associated with a short wave aloft. With limited low level moisture this is not likely, but with the chance for some to see their first snow flakes of the season it is worth bringing up. If sprinkles or flurries occur a trace is expected with no accumulation.

LONG TERM. (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 252 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021

It’ll be a frosty start for all but the inner Twin Cities metro Saturday morning. Surface temperatures should range from the upper 20s to low/mid 30s in the inner metro. Afternoon temperatures recover with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s and partly cloudy skies are expected, but the pleasant fall weather will not last! A shortwave trough tracks across the central CONUS, placing a thermal gradient over the MPX forecast area. Showers are expected to develop across southern Minnesota Sunday morning and expand northward throughout the day. Non-GFS model guidance is further south with the heaviest QPF amounts across central and northern Iowa. As such, the NBM keeps 50 to 60 PoPs from the Twin Cities southward Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings hint that some snow could mix in after sunset across our northwestern counties in central Minnesota. Surface temperatures should remain warm enough so any accumulation is not likely.

Monday through Wednesday night, dry conditions return for the start of the week as an upper level ridge builds in from the western CONUS. After Monday, the model guidance begins to diverge in how to handle an upstream trough that is expected to push into the central CONUS for mid week. Some guidance is much cooler for this period than previous runs, but the NBM continues forward with high temperatures in the lower to mid 60s for Tuesday and Wednesday. A cold front associated with the trough feature will bring another round of precipitation on Wednesday That being said. there is a fair bit of uncertainty in the evolution of this feature and it will be closely monitored.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021

MVFR ceilings continue to move out this afternoon with only MKT and RWF still in MVFR. These lower clouds will move to the south this afternoon and then all terminals will be at VFR for the rest of the TAF period. Generally light winds as well over this period with a chance for calm winds overnight.

KMSP . VFR throughout TAF period with winds of 5 to 10 knots during the day and 5 knots or less overnight. Some brief gusts could occur this afternoon, but they will not be sustained long enough for inclusion in the TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Sat . VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts. Sun . Chc MVFR/SHRA. Wind E 10-15 kts. Mon . VFR with MVFR/-RA possible early. Wind E 10G20 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MN . None. WI . None.

SHORT TERM . NDC LONG TERM . BPH AVIATION . NDC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN6 mi70 minN 14 G 1910.00 miMostly Cloudy50°F30°F46%1019.8 hPa
Downtown Holman Field, MN6 mi70 minNW 1110.00 miFair50°F33°F52%1019.6 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN8 mi68 minN 710.00 miFair49°F32°F53%1019.3 hPa
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN14 mi76 minNNW 11 G 1510.00 miMostly Cloudy48°F30°F50%1019.3 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN14 mi70 minN 10 G 1610.00 miFair48°F29°F48%1019.6 hPa
Lake Elmo Airport, MN16 mi68 minN 710.00 miFair45°F32°F61%1019.3 hPa
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN18 mi70 minNW 10 G 1710.00 miFair48°F31°F52%1019.7 hPa
Minneapolis, Airlake Airport, MN23 mi68 minNNW 810.00 miFair48°F30°F50%1019.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSTP

Wind History from STP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE10E13
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4N6N5N6N6N8
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1 day agoS60000NE30000S300000NW3NE7NE9NE9E9E11
G23
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2 days agoS9S11S6S4S6S9S8S8S8SE8SE7SE6000000SE8E3S8SW5S7S7

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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