Thursday, September23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Champlain, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 6:50PM Thursday September 23, 2021 8:51 PM EDT (00:51 UTC) Moonrise 8:14PMMoonset 9:16AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Expires:202109240315;;076510 Fzus61 Kbuf 232307 Glfsl Forecast For The Saint Lawrence River Including The Thousand Islands Region National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 707 Pm Edt Thu Sep 23 2021 Slz022-024-240315- Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 707 Pm Edt Thu Sep 23 2021
Tonight..South winds 5 to 15 knots. Rain with a chance of Thunderstorms through the early overnight, then a chance of showers late.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers late.
Friday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming light and variable. A chance of showers.
Saturday..South winds 10 knots or less. Partly to mostly Sunny.
Saturday night..South winds less than 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west. A chance of showers during the day.
Tuesday..West winds less than 10 knots becoming northwest. Partly to mostly cloudy. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Champlain, NY
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location: 44.97, -73.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 232353 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 753 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

SYNOPSIS. A strong frontal boundary will shift east across northern New York this evening into tonight, and then into Vermont Friday morning into the afternoon. Moderate to locally heavy rain showers will be possible as this front moves east across the region. A showery period with seasonable conditions is expected for the first half of next week, followed by gradual cooling and drying conditions.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. As of 745 PM EDT Thursday . Frontal rain band continues to make very slow ewd progress across the St. Lawrence Valley and Adirondacks at 2330Z, with the heaviest rainfall continuing to remain south of the forecast area. Rainfall rates across far nrn NY have thus far been light, generally between 0.05-0.10"/hr. Appears rainfall will arrive in the Champlain Valley between 06-08Z. Forecast has only needed minor timing adjustments with the evening update.

Previous Discussion . The occluded boundary that has remained at our doorstep for the last 24 hours is finally moving east, and a bit ahead of schedule. It's unseasonably warm, muggy, and breezy. The forecast logic remains unchanged. Intervals of moderate to locally heavy rain within a narrow band of precipitation will amble across the North Country this evening through Friday afternoon. Efficient transport of deep tropical moisture with strong low-level inflow and favorable right entrance region of a jet will allow for efficient showers. The good news is that flow remains south to southeasterly up until the frontal passage, so it's not life we will see moisture peel out ahead of this, which will limit the potential for multiple rounds of convection. There could be some subtle enhancement, as the previous 06Z NAM and occasional HRRR run depicts two distinct deformation bands. Overall, high res guidance is depicting faster motions, though. This means that the boundary should be shifting east by mid- afternoon, which will limit convective enhancement and reduce the likelihood of thunderstorm activity, except across the easternmost section of our forecast area. The potential for gusty winds ahead of the boundary also appears limited by a narrow inversion around 2500 ft above sea level, that should prevent efficient mixing of the 55 knot LLJ at 850 hPa. Still, higher terrain areas near and above 2500 ft will be blowing around 40 to 50 mph. We continue to see about 0.50"-1.25" of precipitation in the forecast, with locally higher amounts possible in training convection. Antecedent dry conditions should preclude any flood issues, but we will maintain a close watch.

During the day on Friday, a non-diurnal temperature trend will unfold as the dry slot beneath the upper low advects into our area. Some areas might have their high temperature around midnight, as cool air behind the occluded boundary shifts into the region during the day. On Friday afternoon, temperatures should climb at least into the mid 60s to lower 70s beneath the south-southwesterly flow. Most areas will dry out, but some lake effect rain showers are possible in southern St. Lawrence County for a brief interval perhaps migrating into portions of Franklin County, NY. It appears short-lived with a gradual decay after sunset. Friday night lows will be in the 40s to mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. As of 311 PM EDT Thursday . Southwest flow aloft will exist over the area on Saturday with developing upper trough over the Great Lakes. Looking at a nice day overall with no precipitation expected and high temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s. The dry conditions will continue with high pressure over the area Saturday night. Lows will generally be in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 311 PM EDT Thursday . Overall idea in the extended forecast period . Sunday through Thursday . is for an upper low or upper trough to develop over the region. At this time it is looking like the upper system will be over the area in the Monday time period and this may be our best chance for showers before the upper system becomes established to our south and east for the remainder of the period. In this scenario the best forcing would also be south and east of the area. So have trended with some lower precipitation with mainly dry conditions or just a slight chance for showers. High temperatures through the extended period will generally be a few degrees below seasonal normals.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Through 18Z Friday . Currently VFR conditions across the North Country with BKN cigs at 4,000 to 7,000 ft AGL. A cold front is slowly advancing from the west bringing moderate to heavy rain showers and reductions to MVFR cigs and vis. Light rain showers should arrive to KMSS within the next couple of hours, becoming heavier after 00z. Showers will then slowly track eastward through northern New York during the overnight hours and across Vermont on Friday morning. IFR cigs are most likely at KSLK and KMPV during this time. After 12z, cigs will lift from west to east as skies clear in the wake of the front.

In the meantime, we continue to observe gusty S/SE winds with gusts up to 20-25 mph. Said gusts will continue through late tonight, though expected to become less frequent. A low-level jet will develop after 00Z, and low-level wind shear is again expected tonight as surface gusts diminish from west to east. Turbulence is also expected, especially around higher terrain. After 00z, winds will begin to shift from the SW in the wake of the cold front and decrease to less than 10 knots. This will be the case for all terminals after 12z.

Outlook .

Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

MARINE. South to southeast winds 15 to 25 knots, with some occasional gusts up to 30 knots, will continue tonight into early Friday morning. Winds will decrease Friday morning once moderate to locally heavy rain begins once a frontal boundary moves through. Winds will be under 15 knots after the frontal passage midday Friday. Waves 1-3 feet today will build to 2-4 feet tonight, then diminish back to 1-3 feet Friday afternoon.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . Haynes NEAR TERM . Banacos/Haynes SHORT TERM . Evenson LONG TERM . Evenson AVIATION . Duell/Hammond MARINE . Duell


Weather Reporting Stations
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On 03/09/2021 the NDBC primary processing servers were shut off due to a facilities issue. Station pages on the NDBC website are not updating and there is no ETR at this time. We will update this banner as we learn more.
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45195 34 mi52 min 66°F1 ft

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Franklin County State Airport, VT18 mi57 minSE 12 G 1610.00 miFair76°F64°F66%1013.5 hPa
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY22 mi59 minSSE 910.00 miFair74°F63°F69%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFSO

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Tide / Current Tables for Sorel, Quebec
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Sorel
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Thu -- 01:02 AM EDT     0.56 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:36 AM EDT     0.59 meters High Tide
Thu -- 09:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:28 PM EDT     0.57 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 06:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:53 PM EDT     0.60 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.6

Tide / Current Tables for Islets Perces, Quebec
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Islets Perces
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Thu -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:36 AM EDT     0.91 meters High Tide
Thu -- 09:15 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:42 PM EDT     0.90 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 06:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:58 PM EDT     0.93 meters High Tide
Thu -- 08:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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