Thursday, September23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Crystal Downs Country Club, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 6:47PM Thursday September 23, 2021 10:27 PM CDT (03:27 UTC) Moonrise 8:07PMMoonset 9:10AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ364 Expires:202109240930;;081134 Fzus63 Kmkx 240133 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 833 Pm Cdt Thu Sep 23 2021 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. Low pressure of 29.6 inches over southeast michigan will progress to just north of lake huron by Friday morning, weakening slightly to around 29.7 inches. Northerly winds will continue to gradually ease from north to south this evening. High waves will slowly subside through tonight as well. After a brief period of lighter winds, southerly winds will increase Friday afternoon ahead of low pressure trough around 29.7 inches over upper michigan and northern wisconsin. There is a chance for southerly gales as the trough swings across lake michigan Friday evening, and a gale watch is now in effect for the southern half of the lake starting late Friday afternoon. High pressure of 30.1 inches will move through the midwest and ohio river valley Saturday into Sunday. && lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-240930- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 833 pm cdt Thu sep 23 2021 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north...
Rest of tonight..North winds 15 to 25 kt becoming northwest 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft subsiding to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Friday..West winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest 15 to 25 kt early in the afternoon, then becoming south to 30 kt late. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Friday night..South winds to 30 kt veering to west. Showers. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Saturday night..West winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Sunday..West winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
LMZ364


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Crystal Downs Country Club, MI
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location: 44.97, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 240218 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1018 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

UPDATE. Issued at 1018 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

Low pressure center is slowly making its way out of the Thumb area of Michigan and into Lake Huron late this evening. Light shower activity has increased in areal coverage across NE Lower Michigan around the back side of the low center. Showers have also increased in areal coverage across portions of NW Lower Michigan aided by deep cyclonic flow . over-lake instability and residual low level moisture. Little will change as we head into the overnight hours . but do expect some diminish in shower activity toward morning as the low center pulls NE further into Lake Huron. Temps will drop a few degrees overnight . with lows mainly in the mid 40s.

NEAR TERM. (Through Tonight) Issued at 1259 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

Showery and Cool Weather Continues Tonight

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Vertically stacked, and hence filling, low pressure making now steady north progress across southeast lower Michigan early this afternoon. Attendant deformation and increasingly pinched off elevated warm conveyor belt helping drive showers back northwest across the area . although rain amounts have remained fairly light (mostly under half an inch) as that warm conveyor belt weakens and dry air begins to get more entrained into the system. Winds remain a bit gusty out of the north and northeast, and when combined with those showers and clouds, has again kept temperatures several degrees below normal . with current readings mostly in the upper 40s to lower 50s (no doubt actually feels several degrees colder).

Low pressure will continue to make steady northeast progress tonight . reaching vicinity North Channel by sunrise Friday. Secondary shortwave trough expected to dive into the northern Plains late tonight . with this system slated to bring our next round of showers Friday night as it crosses the region.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges:

Addressing lingering showers and overnight temperature trends.

Details:

Expect main band of rain to continue to pivot northwest the remainder of this afternoon . decreasing in organization and intensity in the process as main moist conveyor belt gets shunted well off to our east. Scattered showers will continue much of tonight however within remnant deeper moisture of decaying deformation axis. May even see a bit of Lake Michigan moisture contribution as winds back northwest and shallow inversion top temperatures dip to the low to mid single digits. Aggressive drying arrives later tonight from the southwest, likely ending the shower threat for areas south of the Grand Traverse Bay region toward morning. Low levels of the atmosphere will remain well mixed tonight, again preventing temperatures from dropping to their full potential (like what occurred just to our northwest last night when reading dipped well down into the 30s), with overnight lows once again mainly in the 40s.

SHORT TERM. (Friday through Sunday) Issued at 345 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

. Nice Friday then Showery and Cooler .

High impact weather: None is expected.

Upper level low pressure will continue to move away to the north taking clouds and showers along with it Friday. Just a few lingering showers possible early across eastern upper and far northeast lower. It'll be warmer with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s. A fast moving cold front with then move across the region Friday night accompanied by a line of showers. Perhaps a few lingering showers Saturday, especially in the morning as weak short waves move through the flow. It then turns briefly cold enough for northwest flow lake effect rain showers Saturday night. Models vary on the details of Sunday but the combination of weak short waves and warm advection will continue chances for rain showers (especially across northern zones). Highs over the weekend will be cooler with upper 50s to mid 60s expected. Lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s. It will be breezy through much of this time.

LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 345 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

. Fairly Nice Early Autumn Weather .

High impact weather potential: None is expected.

Extended models are coming into better agreement that upper level ridging takes over and strengthens through the period. This is expected to bring a rain free and mild stretch of weather. Highs will be well in the 60s to the low 70s with lows in the 40s.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 700 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

Vertically stacked low pressure stalled over the Thumb area will slowly lift thru Lake Huron tonight and to the Ontario/Quebec border on Friday . filling as it does so. Widespread rain showers and MVFR/IFR conditions will continue to impact all of Northern Lower Michigan thru tonight. Showers will come to an end early Friday morning . with conditions slowly improving to low VFR by around midday Friday. North winds will continue to diminish to around 10 kts this evening . and then shift to the W/NW overnight into early Friday.

MARINE. Issued at 1259 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

Decaying low pressure will continue to move northeast tonight, steadily backing winds to a northwest direction in the process. Very unstable over-water conditions and a lingering pressure gradient will continue to produce small craft advisory conditions on several of our nearshore waters. Winds continue to back to a southwest direction on Friday ahead of our next approaching cold front. Focus for strongest winds, again likely producing small craft conditions, centers on northern Lake Michigan. Southwest to west winds, at times quite gusty, continue right through Saturday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EDT Friday for LHZ347>349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EDT Friday for LMZ323-342- 344>346. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . MR NEAR TERM . mb SHORT TERM . AS LONG TERM . AS AVIATION . MR MARINE . mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 26 mi38 min N 14 G 18 53°F 65°F4 ft1010.7 hPa48°F
45183 34 mi58 min N 12 G 16 54°F 64°F2 ft
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 34 mi48 min N 5.1 G 9.9 53°F 1012.2 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 46 mi48 min NNW 4.1 G 7 48°F

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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N12

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI28 mi30 minNNW 310.00 miOvercast52°F46°F82%1010.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFKS

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9
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N3N6N9N6N7N4N6N3N5
1 day agoN7N5
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E4NE6N6N8NE11
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2 days agoS8S10S11
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S5W9NW13
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NW7NW8NW8NW10
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N6N4N4CalmN4N5
G15

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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