Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Crystal Downs Country Club, MI
May 4, 2024 3:29 PM CDT (20:29 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:35 AM Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 3:51 AM Moonset 3:50 PM |
LMZ364 Lake Michigan From Charlevoix To Point Betsie Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Point Betsie To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Lake Michigan From Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Pentwater To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 302 Pm Cdt Sat May 4 2024
rock island passage to charlevoix mi south to sheboygan wi to pentwater mi - .
.dense fog advisory in effect until 7 pm cdt this evening - .
Tonight - Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt veering to northwest. Patchy fog. Rain showers likely with slight chance of Thunderstorms this evening, then chance of rain showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sunday - Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt backing to south 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sunday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft subsiding to nearly calm.
Monday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt becoming northeast. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Monday night - East winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southeast 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 3 to 5 ft.
Tuesday - Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Tuesday night - Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt becoming southwest 10 to 20 kt. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday - North winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
rock island passage to charlevoix mi south to sheboygan wi to pentwater mi - .
LMZ300
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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 041932 AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 332 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers and a few thunderstorms tonight.
- High pressure Sunday with low chances for potential frost Sunday night/Monday morning.
- Growing potential of strong thunderstorms across the region Tuesday night.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Pattern Synopsis:
Amplified ridging will gradually fold over New England through tonight as troughing lifts across the far northern Great Lakes and southeast Canada this weekend. Forcing providing by said troughing will support a weak cyclone that will quickly progress across the Great Lakes tonight. Further upstream, ridging sliding from the Rockies over the northern Great Plains will build high pressure across most of the central CONUS on Sunday, eventually nosing into the Great Lakes by Sunday evening.
Forecast Details:
Showers and a few storms tonight -- Warm weather with mostly/partly sunny skies will continue across much of the area through this afternoon before clouds begin to spread from west to east this evening ahead of the aforementioned system. Rain chances move into northwest lower/eastern upper after 00Z/8 PM EDT -- bust most likely to arrive around 03Z/11 PM EDT. As previous forecaster noted, showers are anticipated along and slightly behind the cold front as it slides across the area late this evening and overnight.
Any activity along the boundary will have some buoyancy (~500 J/kg MUCAPE) and relatively weak effective layer shear (25-30kts) to work with, making severe chances unlikely.
However, a few thunderstorms will be possible overnight with small hail and gusty winds being the primary threats should any stronger storms sustain themselves. Otherwise, showers/storms move out Sunday morning, making for a quiet end to the weekend.
Overnight lows in the 40s and low 50s with Sunday highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s are expected.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:
Midlevel split flow pattern over North America will continue to bring a chaotic pattern of shower/storms at times for the entirety of the long term period. Midlevel ridging currently over the northern Rockies will breifly return quiet weather to the Great Lakes ahead of upstream troughing.
Aformentioned trough axis will be centered over the upper midwest at start of the forecast period. Dry and quiet weather will persist Monday and most of Tuesday. Upstream troughing will slowly progress from the northern Rockies to the east coast during the entire long term period. Showers and thunderstorms will continue at times during the work week, especially Tuesday night into Wednesday as a boundary pushes across the Great Lakes region.
Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:
High pressure starts the long term off with quiet weather: The long term forecast starts out dry. High pressure will continue precipitation free weather Monday and most of Tuesday. Clear skies overnight Sunday could allow temperatures to rapidly drop across interior parts of northern lower that could result in some patchy frost. Fire weather potential on Monday remains a concern as sinking air could cause RH's to drop to near critical levels, but low winds should be able to prevent any headline concerns at this time.
Growing potential of strong thunderstorms across the region Tuesday night: Focus of the long term period remains on Tuesday night into Wednesday. A warm front advecting north of the boarder will saturate the CWA pushing dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s. Potential energy for severe storms across the region continue to grow as SPC places the southern parts of Michigan under a 15% probability of severe weather for day 4.
Still a little too far out to specify impacts to the CWA, but will continue to monitor the severity of the event Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Embedded troughs and height disturbances will continue periods of rain and thunderstorms for the rest of the work week, especially this Thursday as weak surface low pressure moves across the Great Lakes region. No impactful weather is expected for the remainder of the forecast period.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
IFR/MVFR CIGs are expected to continue at APN through this afternoon and tonight as southeast winds keep low stratus/BR/FG in place, and will eventually rise to VFR later Sunday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are anticipated at other northern Michigan TAF sites through the early evening hours. MVFR/IFR CIGs are expected to move in late this evening and overnight, accompanying chances for rain showers into Sunday morning. VFR conditions are anticipated across all TAF sites by early Sunday afternoon.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 332 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers and a few thunderstorms tonight.
- High pressure Sunday with low chances for potential frost Sunday night/Monday morning.
- Growing potential of strong thunderstorms across the region Tuesday night.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Pattern Synopsis:
Amplified ridging will gradually fold over New England through tonight as troughing lifts across the far northern Great Lakes and southeast Canada this weekend. Forcing providing by said troughing will support a weak cyclone that will quickly progress across the Great Lakes tonight. Further upstream, ridging sliding from the Rockies over the northern Great Plains will build high pressure across most of the central CONUS on Sunday, eventually nosing into the Great Lakes by Sunday evening.
Forecast Details:
Showers and a few storms tonight -- Warm weather with mostly/partly sunny skies will continue across much of the area through this afternoon before clouds begin to spread from west to east this evening ahead of the aforementioned system. Rain chances move into northwest lower/eastern upper after 00Z/8 PM EDT -- bust most likely to arrive around 03Z/11 PM EDT. As previous forecaster noted, showers are anticipated along and slightly behind the cold front as it slides across the area late this evening and overnight.
Any activity along the boundary will have some buoyancy (~500 J/kg MUCAPE) and relatively weak effective layer shear (25-30kts) to work with, making severe chances unlikely.
However, a few thunderstorms will be possible overnight with small hail and gusty winds being the primary threats should any stronger storms sustain themselves. Otherwise, showers/storms move out Sunday morning, making for a quiet end to the weekend.
Overnight lows in the 40s and low 50s with Sunday highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s are expected.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:
Midlevel split flow pattern over North America will continue to bring a chaotic pattern of shower/storms at times for the entirety of the long term period. Midlevel ridging currently over the northern Rockies will breifly return quiet weather to the Great Lakes ahead of upstream troughing.
Aformentioned trough axis will be centered over the upper midwest at start of the forecast period. Dry and quiet weather will persist Monday and most of Tuesday. Upstream troughing will slowly progress from the northern Rockies to the east coast during the entire long term period. Showers and thunderstorms will continue at times during the work week, especially Tuesday night into Wednesday as a boundary pushes across the Great Lakes region.
Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:
High pressure starts the long term off with quiet weather: The long term forecast starts out dry. High pressure will continue precipitation free weather Monday and most of Tuesday. Clear skies overnight Sunday could allow temperatures to rapidly drop across interior parts of northern lower that could result in some patchy frost. Fire weather potential on Monday remains a concern as sinking air could cause RH's to drop to near critical levels, but low winds should be able to prevent any headline concerns at this time.
Growing potential of strong thunderstorms across the region Tuesday night: Focus of the long term period remains on Tuesday night into Wednesday. A warm front advecting north of the boarder will saturate the CWA pushing dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s. Potential energy for severe storms across the region continue to grow as SPC places the southern parts of Michigan under a 15% probability of severe weather for day 4.
Still a little too far out to specify impacts to the CWA, but will continue to monitor the severity of the event Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Embedded troughs and height disturbances will continue periods of rain and thunderstorms for the rest of the work week, especially this Thursday as weak surface low pressure moves across the Great Lakes region. No impactful weather is expected for the remainder of the forecast period.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
IFR/MVFR CIGs are expected to continue at APN through this afternoon and tonight as southeast winds keep low stratus/BR/FG in place, and will eventually rise to VFR later Sunday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are anticipated at other northern Michigan TAF sites through the early evening hours. MVFR/IFR CIGs are expected to move in late this evening and overnight, accompanying chances for rain showers into Sunday morning. VFR conditions are anticipated across all TAF sites by early Sunday afternoon.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. | 26 mi | 39 min | ENE 5.8G | 45°F | 42°F | 0 ft | 29.96 | 42°F |
| NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI | 34 mi | 89 min | ESE 11G | |||||
| FPTM4 - Fairport, MI | 46 mi | 49 min | SE 6G | 54°F | ||||
| CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI | 49 mi | 49 min | ENE 9.9G | 61°F |
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Gaylord, MI,
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