Sunrise 5:58 AM   Sunset 9:14 PM Moonrise 1:52 AM   Moonset 1:31 PM

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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 236 Am Edt Fri May 31 2024
Today - Light winds becoming south 5 to 10 knots in the morning, then becoming northwest in the afternoon becoming west early in the evening. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - South wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday - South wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday night - Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 311023 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 623 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Return of above normal temperatures today.

- Temperatures gradually warm through the weekend, peaking in the 70s and 80s Sunday and beyond.

- Shower chances return to the picture Saturday, with another system potentially bringing the next more appreciable shower / storm risk Monday into Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 228 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

High pressure dominating the complete depth of the atmosphere early this morning, with apex of mid/upper level ridging building into the western Great Lakes, with the center of its surface reflection running just a bit out ahead...centered across southeast Ontario and Ohio. Attendant deep layer dry air and subsidence resulting in a mostly clear and seasonably chilly night across the Northwoods...
with some of traditional colder interior areas already making a run into the 30s.

Flow regime remains fairly progressive, with upper level ridge building through and eventually east of the area today and tonight, with its attendant surface refection reaching vicinity the east coast by sunrise Saturday. Troughing builds in their wake into the northern Plains later tonight/early Saturday, with a cold front running along the leading edge of this trough into the upper Mississippi Valley region by Saturday morning.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges:

Cloud and temperature/dewpoint trends and addressing any late night shower potential.

Details:

Dry conditions expected today under just some increasing high level thin clouds. Increasing southwest return flow on backside of that departing surface high will usher in an increasingly mild airmass...and when combined with that late May sunshine, will help temperatures recover quickly this morning. Expect temperatures to top out well into the 70s (even a few areas reaching 80) this afternoon. Per the usual, expect temperatures to run a touch cooler near the big waters. Rather aggressive late morning/early afternoon mixing and lack of any low/mid level moisture advection will force relative humidity values to drop to near or below critical levels...especially across northeast lower Michigan. While winds do increase, just not seeing any real support for sustained critical level wind gusts. Combine that with now nearly full green-up/recent rains, and concerns for elevated fire weather concerns are negligible.

Clouds will continue to increasing tonight as mid/upper level moisture advection continues ahead of that approaching trough/attendant cold front. Given antecedent dry low level conditions and detachment of more collective forcing to our west...thinking any threat for rain will now hold off until after sunrise Saturday. A much milder night, with lows only dropping into the lower and middle 50s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 228 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Pattern Synopsis / Forecast:

Meteorological equivalent of a traffic jam is the name of the pattern set to grace northern Michigan through the course of the long term period. 500mb ridging and associated surface high will be forced south and east into the Carolinas over the weekend, all the while two waves approach, but don't entirely impact the Northwoods.
The first being a rotund vertically stacked low precariously spinning over northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, with associated cold front decaying as it heads into the Great Lakes, fighting parallel flow, and largely washing the front out. Second feature will be a compact wave and associated surface low with convective origins from ongoing robust thunderstorms over the southern Plains.
This wave passes through the mid Mississippi and Ohio valleys and into the southern Great Lakes before departing for Sunday. Result will be increased cloud cover, though not necessarily any overly unsettled weather Saturday... best chances in the eastern Yoop with the cold front, and toward M-55 with the southern low.

Ridge axis retrogrades somewhat, resulting in stronger southerly return flow for Sunday ahead of a deeper wave set to pass through Monday into Tuesday. Increased dewpoints will lead to somewhat better potential for instability ahead of a cold front Monday evening... and if the timing of the front is right, perhaps some showers and storms across the region are possible. Beyond then, another wave moves into central Canada, though with robust amplification of a west coast ridge, should set up northwest flow...
but with current guidance suggesting deeper moisture holding south and west of the upper Great Lakes, current thoughts are that the majority, if not, all of any resulting convective waves will be suppressed south and west through the Mississippi River valley through the remainder of next week while we largely hold dry.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Upcoming Rain Chances: Not going to sugarcoat things here...
frustrating precipitation forecast in the cards for the forecast period. Influence of the southern wave likely leads to more prominent cloud cover over much of northern lower, but stout dry air presence in the low levels makes top-down saturation difficult owing to a lack of a deeper moisture tap. Southern areas closer to M-72 and Saginaw Bay will have a better shot at some synoptically generated rain as that compact wave passes through Indiana and Ohio, but overall, probably a drier day than not for the rest of northern lower... and it's not out of the question that temps spike into the mid-upper 70s across both the eastern Yoop and for points north of M- 72. Cold front may be able to generate some showers and thunder across the eastern Yoop after 20z Saturday, but limited instability (perhaps a few hundred joules of CAPE) and potential nocturnal frontal passage timing may put the kibosh to shower and storm potential. Next chance of rain will be Monday into Tuesday as a more potent disturbance passes through. Still a bit of uncertainty regarding this feature, particularly as the parent surface low is set to ride the flow around the ridge well north into Ontario, which usually suppresses convective potential here, especially if the timing of the cold frontal passage is more nocturnal. Have elected to cap PoPs under likely wording (54% or less) Monday evening into the overnight owing to this uncertainty. Will have to continue to monitor this feature in the coming cycles. Looking ahead, aforementioned developing northwest flow likely kicks off MCS Mania(TM) across the northern Plains. At this juncture, unfavorable steering flow and deeper moisture suppressed away from the CWA suggests that the bulk of these potential convective outbursts will favor the Dakotas, south and east into the Ohio Valley.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 619 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

VFR conditions through this period with just some slowly increasing high level clouds. Winds become southwest, with local lake breeze development this afternoon. Light winds return tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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