Saturday, October23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Little Canada, MN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:38AMSunset 6:15PM Saturday October 23, 2021 4:26 PM CDT (21:26 UTC) Moonrise 6:52PMMoonset 9:40AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Little Canada, MN
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location: 45.01, -93.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 232006 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 306 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

Looking aloft, an upper-level low pressure is centered over James Bay this afternoon. Large scale troughing across the Great Lakes region. A surface high pressure is centered over the Upper Midwest and will eventually shift off to the southeast. Deep ridging is centered over the Dakotas will continue to move east into the Upper Mississippi Valley overnight.

Clouds will increase this evening and overnight as a potent shortwave trough exits the Rockies, aiding in cyclogenesis over CO/KS. Overall trend is slower and further south with the approaching low pressure system on Sunday. A closed low develops across the central CONUS and bringing an area precipitation into southern Minnesota. While isentropic lift will enhance precipitation northeast of the low, a sharp gradient in QPF will be present across southern Minnesota. I've continued to adjust and lower PoPs for areas north of Mankato to match the southern trend within model guidance. QPF amounts of a quart to a half inch are possible for areas south of Mankato. The Twin Cities may miss the precip entirely. However, for the Twin Cities north will be met with highs in the lower 50s and overcast skies on Sunday.

Temperatures will have very little change despite the passage of this system. Lows tonight will be a little warmer due to the increased cloud cover and increasing moisture advection ahead of the storm system. Sunday night lows will be above freezing for most with precip exiting the area promptly.

LONG TERM. (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

We begin the extended time frame around sunrise on Monday as the remnants of the weekend system are pushing into the southern Great Lakes, with ridging moving into the region through Tuesday. This should give us relatively clear skies with temperatures near seasonal in the low to mid 50s on Monday/Tuesday, with lows in the low to mid 30s again Tuesday morning. Increasing clouds and warming temperatures are then expected as we head into late Tuesday as a trough begins to dig and take on a slightly negative tilt by early Wednesday morning, with a surface broad precipitation shield along a surface low forming underneath this disturbance. Deterministic and ensemble model runs have all coalesced around this system with a very good chance for most of the area to see at least 0.25-0.5'' of rainfall through Wednesday night and early Thursday morning, with a few GEFS members even going as high as an inch of rainfall overall. Temperatures will only fall to near 40 on Thursday morning in central MN, thus is seems unlikely to see anything other than rain from this event.

Another broad upper level ridge returns behind the departing system as we head into next weekend, once again bringing clear skies and a return to near seasonal temperatures in the mid 50s for highs and near 40 for lows. There is a hinting of another system beyond our typical 7 day extended forecast within a few deterministic model runs, however that energy is currently off in the Pacific Ocean and has a lot of time to shift and evolve with confidence far too low to comment any further at this point.

Overall, expect a fairly seasonal week as far as temperatures are concerned, with our big rain chance on Wednesday lingering into Thursday before we dry out into the weekend.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

Solid VFR conditions expected throughout this TAF duration with light NE to E winds.

KMSP . No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Mon . VFR. Wind E 10G20 kts. Tue . VFR early, MVFR/SHRA likely late. Wind SE 10-15 kts. Wed . MVFR/RA likely, IFR possible. Wind SE 10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MN . None. WI . None.

SHORT TERM . BPH LONG TERM . TDH AVIATION . BPH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Downtown Holman Field, MN6 mi34 minN 010.00 miFair54°F31°F42%1017.3 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN10 mi34 minno data10.00 miA Few Clouds51°F30°F45%1017.4 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN11 mi32 minE 310.00 miFair52°F30°F43%1016.6 hPa
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN12 mi42 minE 510.00 miA Few Clouds52°F30°F44%1016.6 hPa
Lake Elmo Airport, MN13 mi32 minN 010.00 miFair50°F32°F50%1016.9 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN15 mi34 minN 010.00 miFair51°F29°F43%1017.2 hPa
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN22 mi34 minESE 810.00 miFair50°F29°F44%1017.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSTP

Wind History from STP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7N5N6N6NE4N14300NW40NW3N3N300000S34400
1 day agoN11N6NW7NW4NW6NW4000NW30NW30NW4NW4N4NW30000NW43N3
2 days agoE13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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