Sunrise 6:03 AM   Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 7:42 AM

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FXUS63 KMPX 282351 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 651 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers & thunderstorms return on Tuesday, with a few strong to severe storms possible across southern Minnesota.

- Active pattern continues with additional chances for rain Thursday & next weekend.

- Temperatures will remain Spring-like through the work week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

It is a rather raw & soggy day across the Upper Mississippi Valley today. Widespread rain has spread across the region and will persist through this evening before tapering off overnight. Temperatures are more similar to mid-March, in the mid 40s, with sustained E/NE winds 10-15mph adding additional insult to injury to end April. The surface low located over NE Nebraska will track through southern Minnesota into northern Wisconsin before exiting through the northern Great Lakes. We'll see steady showers through the afternoon with an area of heavier rain setting up in the deformation axis across western Minnesota and eastern Dakotas. We're looking at 0.5 to 1.0" total rainfall by Monday morning with locally higher amounts possible across portions of western and central Minnesota. The cold & dry E/NE flow has limited any attempt to build instability into S MN & latest CAMs fail to bring the warm front into Minnesota or Wisconsin. This lines up with the SPC removing the Marginal risk of severe across S MN for this afternoon. There could be a few thunderstorms embedded in the precipitation that'll produce heavier rains & a few rumbles of thunder. Otherwise, we'll "dry out" overnight before the deformation zone pivots through Monday morning.

Monday will see shower chances return in the first half the of day, especially across W WI, before we actually dry out. Cool flow & overcast skies will limit our highs into the upper 40s and lower 50s for the second straight day. Tuesday will be a stark contrast to Monday. High temperatures will be in the 60s and lower 70s. A thermal ridge will move through during the day, allowing ample WAA to occur ahead of shortwave trough. That potent shortwave is forecast to dig into northern Plains and become negatively tilted by Tuesday afternoon. This will enhance flow and provide additional ascent across Upper Midwest Tuesday afternoon/evening, which will support shower and thunderstorm development across much of the area along and ahead of a sfc front. Timing is favorable, at peak diurnal heating, but our limiting factor will be the lack of CAPE (500 j/kg) & weak lapse rates (6.0-6.5 deg/km). So this isn't going to be a widespread severe but low CAPE/high(er) shear setup. Hires guidance brings a line of thunderstorms across Tuesday PM. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible, and SPC's day 3 places us in a Marginal risk. What's more impressive is the trend in higher QPF associated with this wave. We've seen QPF more or less double since yesterday so another solid rain event is on tap for much of the area. We've also opted for 3 hourly PoP grids to better represent the passing line of thunderstorms on Tuesday.

Wednesday will be a brief return to drier, seasonal conditions with highs in the 60s and lower 70s. Guidance has doubled down on an another shortwave impacting the region Thursday into Friday. This was hinted at yesterday by a few ensemble members, but was far from the best signal. Fast forward a day and we're looking at solid chance for another widespread rain maker.
Temperatures cool into the 50s and 60s with likely PoPs now appearing in the NBM. As this system exits on Friday we'll see our active pattern continue as yet another system is possible this weekend before the pattern resets after next weekend. While temperatures have trended cooler for the first weekend of May appears to trending cooler, there is a signal for warmer temperatures to return for the second week of May.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Widespread rain with ceilings slightly above or below 1000ft (hence, right around the MVFR/IFR threshold) at initialization for all sites. Ceilings are expected to drop into IFR range within a few hours of the start of this set then remain within IFR range overnight through most of Monday. Rain will continue through later this evening, then gradually end from south to north overnight. An additional round of showers is likely to develop Monday morning over southwestern MN and spread NNE into central MN, potentially into eastern MN and western WI for a small period. No CB/TS expected throughout this duration for all sites. Breezy E winds will continue into the early morning hours then diminish to under 10kts, while also undergoing a shift to N then W during the first part of Monday. Speeds will then increase once again to 10-15G20-25kts Monday afternoon.

KMSP...Ceilings have dropped back down to IFR level at initialization time and are expected to remain there through late Monday afternoon. A few rounds of heavier showers may drop visibility into IFR range but flight category will by-and-large be determined by ceilings. After the rain ends this evening, have kept the TAF dry until sunrise at which time additional light passing showers may move across MSP through noon or so.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR through mid afternoon. MVFR or IFR with TSRA late aftn/evng. Wind SE 10-15G30 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind light/variable.
THU...MVFR/-SHRA likely. Wind ENE 10-15G25kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.

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