Tuesday, September28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Baileys Harbor, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 6:39PM Tuesday September 28, 2021 11:38 AM CDT (16:38 UTC) Moonrise 10:51PMMoonset 2:26PM Illumination 52% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ541 Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 957 Am Cdt Tue Sep 28 2021
This afternoon..SE wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Mostly Sunny.
Tonight..SE wind 5 to 10 kts veering sw after midnight. Waves subsiding to 2 ft or less. Clear.
Wednesday..S wind around 5 kts backing se in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. Sunny.
Wednesday night..E wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Mostly clear.
LMZ541 Expires:202109282215;;314986 FZUS53 KGRB 281457 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 957 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ541>543-282215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Baileys Harbor, WI
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location: 45.07, -87.14     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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FXUS63 KGRB 281058 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 558 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

SHORT TERM. Today . Tonight . and Wednesday Issued at 218 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021

Quiet weather can be expected through the short-term portion of the forecast.

High pressure will be centered overhead this morning before drifting slowly off to the east of the area this afternoon through Wednesday. This will allow south to southeasterly flow to gradually increase; although, the overall flow will remain fairly light. Aloft, upper-level ridging is expected to build in late tonight into Wednesday, leading to increasing temperatures. Skies will be mostly clear through much of this time period with no precipitation expected. There could be some ground fog overnight; however, the gradual increase in winds may help to limit overall coverage. High temperatures will warm from the low to mid 70s today to the upper 70s to around 80 on Wednesday. Overnight lows will drop into the 40s for most locations.

LONG TERM. Wednesday Night Through Monday Issued at 218 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021

An amplified mean flow of various degrees is forecast into early next week and models are having difficulty on how systems will interact with each other. Initially, an upper ridge over east-central NOAM will break down as an upper low lifts northeast into the central CONUS and a closed upper low spins over the Canadian Maritimes/far northeast CONUS this weekend. Timing of a cold front Friday or Saturday remains an issue for the onset of precipitation chances. By early next week, a shortwave trough is forecast to drop southeast and interact with the upper low over the Midwest to keep an unsettled weather pattern over the Great Lakes. Temperatures to be above normal through the weekend, then settle closer to normal early next week.

Wednesday night and Thursday . Clear skies and light winds are expected Wednesday night with high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes and an upper ridge over the western Great Lakes. Anticipate another night of patchy/areas of ground fog to develop with min temperatures in the middle to upper 40s north, upper 40s to middle 50s south. Another nice early autumn day on tap across the forecast area on Thursday with abundant sunshine and relatively light southeast winds. Max temperatures to range from near 70 degrees near Lake MI, lower to middle 70s north and middle to upper 70s south.

Thursday night and Friday . The first hints of model issues begin Thursday night as the GFS moves the upper ridge toward the eastern Great Lakes, while the NAM/GEM/ECMWF all keep the upper ridge over WI. There could be some increase in clouds toward daybreak into central WI, but no precipitation yet. Min temperatures to be in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees north, lower to middle 50s south. The faster GFS sends rain chances across most of northeast WI on Friday, but remains a fast outlier compared to other models that hold the upper ridge in place, although the GEM does weaken the ridge. Prefer to increase the clouds, but restrict any small pops to central WI and mainly for the afternoon hours. Max temperatures to again range from near 70 degrees lakeside, to the middle 70s south.

Friday night and Saturday . Forecast confidence remains low this weekend as models differ on the movement of a cold front and movement of the upper low over the central High Plains. If there is a sliver of hope, the GFS does appear to slow down the cold front draped across WI from its previous runs, as well as hold the upper low over the central Plains on Saturday. This is at least closer to the GEM/ECMWF solutions. Have kept the small chance pops in the forecast for both Friday night and Saturday with higher chances over northern and central WI by Saturday. Max temperatures for Saturday will be cooler due to more clouds/precipitation in the vicinity. Look for readings around 70 degrees north/near Lake MI, mainly lower 70s elsewhere.

Saturday night through Monday . Forecast uncertainty carries over into early next week as the models continue to struggle with the location of the cold front, strength (or lack thereof) of the upper low to our south, strength/movement of a shortwave trough or closed upper low over the northern High Plains and the exact extent of precipitation. Just too many unknown variables at this time, thus have followed the consensus solution for both Sunday and Monday which keeps low chance pops in the forecast both days. Temperatures are expected to drop closer to normal which would put max temperatures mainly in the middle to upper 60s.

AVIATION. for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 558 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021

Patchy ground fog can be expected this morning and again late tonight into early Wednesday morning as high pressure lingers overhead and winds remain light. Otherwise, good flying conditions can be expected.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.

SHORT TERM . Cooley LONG TERM . Kallas AVIATION . Cooley


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 18 mi59 min ESE 8.9 G 9.9 60°F 1019.3 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 24 mi51 min NNE 2.9 G 4.1 56°F 64°F1017.6 hPa53°F
45014 38 mi39 min NNE 5.8 G 7.8 64°F 62°F1 ft1018.6 hPa (+1.3)
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 43 mi39 min SE 5.8 G 7.8 58°F 64°F1019.1 hPa47°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 46 mi59 min S 6 G 7 60°F
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 46 mi51 min E 4.1 G 5.1 61°F 1017.3 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Door County Cherryland Airport, WI20 mi43 minESE 610.00 miFair62°F51°F67%1018.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUE

Wind History from SUE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE10N10N9N10N11N7NE4E4NE6NE9NE8NE6NE6NE5N3N3CalmN4N6CalmCalmNE3SE5E6
1 day agoSW10SW10SW8S14SW9S7S5CalmS7S5CalmS3SW3CalmCalmNW4CalmCalmNW3N9N8N7NE10--
2 days agoW14W13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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