Sunrise 5:41 AM   Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 2:06 AM   Moonset 10:33 AM

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LMZ541 Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- 132 Am Cdt Tue Apr 30 2024
Overnight - SW wind 5 to 10 kts. Patchy fog. A chance of sprinkles. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Today - SW wind 5 to 10 kts. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 ft or less. Tonight - S wind 10 to 15 kts. A chance of rain showers after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less. Wednesday - SW wind 10 to 20 kts veering W 10 to 15 kts in the afternoon. Gusts to around 25 kts. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 ft. A small craft advisory may be needed.

LMZ500
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FXUS63 KGRB 300344 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1044 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

KEY MESSAGES

- Due to recent rainfall, rivers and streams will be on the rise through midweek, with a few of them possibly reaching bankfull stage.

- There is a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms Tuesday night. Additional rain and thunderstorm chances are possible at times from late Wednesday night through Friday.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 407 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Short Term...Tonight and Tuesday

As a surface low gradually tracked northeast from southeastern MN into northwest WI this afternoon, a line of scattered showers developed along its occluded front over eastern WI early this afternoon. Embedded thunderstorm development had not been observed despite a couple hundred of elevated instability analyzed this afternoon. The lack in thunder could be a result of a lack of mid- level moisture, too weak of instability, and low mid-level lapse rates. Therefore, the chance of thunderstorms developing for the remainder of the evening remains very low. As the surface low continues to track into Upper MI into this evening, the line of scattered showers will exit the forecast area to the east/northeast.

For the remainder of the night, the mid-level shortwave associated with the surface low will shift overhead. Forecast soundings indicate enough low-level moisture in central WI and across the Northwoods to generate low clouds through Tuesday morning. A few sprinkles may accompany the low clouds through late this evening with potential for fog to redevelop later tonight through early Tuesday morning.

Ridging will follow the shortwave for Tuesday, allowing clouds to decrease for the return of some sunshine. The timing of the ridging has slowed slightly from the previous forecast, causing the warmer air to reach the area a little slower. Therefore, lowered Tuesday's highs by a few degrees. Still anticipate highs mainly in the 60s, but have removed the 70s from the southern portion of the forecast area.

Long Term...Tuesday Night Through Monday

A mid level PV anomaly and attendant trough will bring showers and thunderstorms to northeast Wisconsin Tuesday night as this feature tracks through the western Great Lakes region. This feature should mainly be out of the region by Wednesday morning, with some showers possibly lingering across far northern Wisconsin Wednesday afternoon.

Wednesday is expected to be dry, warm, and breezy behind the departing low. These conditions could cause some fire weather concerns as relative humidity values plunge along with the gusty winds and warm afternoon temperatures. The main factor that may prevent elevated fire weather conditions will be the rain on Tuesday night and the relatively short period these conditions are expected given more precipitation is expected later in the week.

A well organized low pressure system emerging over the central Plains will lift northeast towards the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday then the northwestern Great Lakes region Thursday night.
This system will bring a prolonged period of showers and thunderstorms at times from late Wednesday night through Friday.
The prolonged period of precipitation will keep temperatures cooler than earlier in the week; however, temperatures will still be around or slightly warmer than normal for this time of year.
The prolonged precipitation will also bring flooding concerns as area rivers have risen a bit from this weekends event, with an additional period of rain causing area rivers to reach bankfull, depending on how much rain falls and where later this week.

The models this weekend indicate there will be another period of rain at some point, but at different intensities. The GFS/Canadian have precipitation Saturday and Saturday night, with a bit more QPF and a stronger low pressure system. The ECMWF indicates a much weaker low with a paltry amount of QPF on Saturday. AFter the weekend, the ECMWF brings another low pressure system with a healthy amount of rain on Monday while the GFS/Canadian are dry with a high pressure system across the Great Lakes. Given the model differences will stick with the NBM in that portion of the forecast as things are still up in the air.

AVIATION
for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1044 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Low pressure moving slowly across Lake Superior will keep cloudy skies across the area overnight. MVFR ceilings are likely west of a ESC to DLL line, with IFR ceilings at times northwest of an IMT to RRL line. VFR ceilings are expected across eastern Wisconsin.

MVFR ceilings are likely over all of the area Tuesday morning, with rapid clearing from south to north during the afternoon. VFR conditions are expected Tuesday evening, but showers and scattered thunderstorms and lower flight conditions are likely later Tuesday night as another low pressure system approaches from the Plains states.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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