Tuesday, September28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pacific City, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 7:01PM Monday September 27, 2021 9:34 PM PDT (04:34 UTC) Moonrise 9:37PMMoonset 1:02PM Illumination 58% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ255 Coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 854 Pm Pdt Mon Sep 27 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through late Tuesday night...
Rest of tonight..S wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves S 4 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 15 ft at 15 seconds. Chance of tstms late in the evening. Showers. Slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Tue..SW wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, easing to 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves sw 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 15 ft at 13 seconds. Slight chance of tstms in the morning. Showers likely.
Tue night..SW wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves S 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 12 ft at 11 seconds.
Wed..S wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves S 3 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 8 ft at 10 seconds.
Wed night..S wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves S 3 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 7 ft at 10 seconds. Chance of rain.
Thu..SW wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 8 ft. Chance of showers.
Thu night..N wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 9 ft.
Fri..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. NW swell 9 ft.
Sat..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 7 ft.
PZZ200 854 Pm Pdt Mon Sep 27 2021
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. An unstable showery weather pattern continues over the waters with potential for Thunderstorms through this evening. A large westerly swell arriving in the waters will subside Tuesday morning. High pressure builds over the waters Tuesday. The next storm system will bring increasing winds Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pacific City, OR
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location: 45.17, -123.97     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 280418 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 916 PM PDT Mon Sep 27 2021

updated aviation

SYNOPSIS. Typical fall weather is expected as the month of September comes to a end. A more active weather pattern will result in near to below average temperatures for much of the upcoming week. Wet weather will be primarily confined through Tuesday and then again on Thursday. Warmer and drier weather is likely for the weekend.

SHORT TERM. THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT . Recent radar scans reveal rain showers falling across parts of the Coast Range and western Willamette Valley, while satellite imagery shows a break in convective activity (aside from some cumulus) over the waters out to beyond 100 nautical miles from the Oregon and Washington shoreline. Most of the stronger showers are popping up along the western Willamette Valley and near the Kelso-Longview area. Behind this front is an area of deeper convection immediately ahead of an eastward-advancing tropospheric fold. This should bring more convective activity onshore in several hours. High resolution models continue to suggest that the best chance for thunder in the Willamette Valley and Cascade Foothills will be this evening when surface-based instability may be realized by any breaks in cloud cover that can happen. Still, the coldest temperatures aloft needed for deep instability will hold off until tomorrow, when the axis of strongest mid to upper-level winds - and hence highest vertical wind shear - associated with the upper trough slides east of the area. In addition, large-scale forcing for ascent will slide east of the area, and in fact downward motion will be favored in anticyclonic vorticity advection on the back side of this feature. Still, given the deeper instability layer evident on model soundings, the slight chance thunder mention that NBM is suggesting seems realistic enough to maintain it in the forecast. Any showers/thundershowers that do develop tomorrow afternoon should be east of the area (with exception to the Cascades, where orographically enhanced uplift could sustain cells for slightly longer) by around 5 p.m., leaving at least a portion of the evening rain-free.

The next system, a weaker shortwave trough, approaches from the northwest on Wednesday. This one should bring much lower (if any) chances for thunder, and much lower precipitation totals across the board. In fact, southern portions of our area may not even see any rain from this system. The CMC brings rain only to the far northern part of our county warning area, while the GFS and ECMWF bring chances for rain all the way south to near Oakridge. For now, have gone with a split between the three, with a slight hedge towards the GFS and ECMWF (since the CMC is the outlier at this time), but if model trends indicate otherwise then the chances for rain and precipitation totals will be adjusted accordingly. -Bumgardner

LONG TERM. THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY . The aforementioned shortwave will bring a chance for rain to at least the northern half of the region on Thursday, before rain probabilities diminish Thursday night into Friday morning. Behind the front associated with this system, the combination of cold air advection and onshore flow should keep temperatures relatively cool again on Friday before a warming trend begins on Saturday. As a ridge then expands north and west into northwest Oregon and southwest Washington, temperatures are likely to warm to above normal by Sunday. The NBM suggests the probability for above normal (i.e., 70F) high temperatures at PDX on Sunday is 98%. Yet, evidence that supports the notion this will not be a heatwave comes from the same model, as the NBM suggests the chances for surpassing 80F are only 15%. Overall, the weekend should be dry and pleasant. -Bumgardner

AVIATION. Showery pattern continues through tonight as a cool upper trough traverses west to east across the region. A chance of thunderstorms will remain over the coastal waters tonight, with a slight chance of them moving into the coastal areas. Will keep the VCTS (vicinity thunderstorm) to the KAST & KONP TAFs due to this possibility. Showers gradually decrease Tuesday morning as high pressure build in from the west. Flight condition will generally be a mix of VFR and MVFR but can expect occasional IFR vis and cigs with heavier precipitation.

For detailed regional Pac NW aviation weather information, go online to: https://weather.gov/zse

KPDX AND APPROACHES . Showers with a mix of VFR and MVFR conditions will return by 08z. Cannot rule out brief IFR conditions, but forecast confidence too low to add to TAFs at this time. If it did occur, best chance would be between 10z-14z. Southerly winds will continue through the night and into Tuesday. /Kriederman

MARINE. A cool and showery pattern continues across the waters through Tuesday morning. Expect winds to remain breezy with occasional gusts to 25 kt. Buoy 46005 reported significant wave heights in the 23 to 26 feet range at 15 seconds between 2 and 5 AM. As of 2 pm buoy 46089 and 46243 jumped up to around 18 ft at 15 seconds. (Buoy 46029 unfortunately currently adrift and not reporting reliably.) This is about the estimated height and time of arrival based on the wave decay program. So generally expected seas in the 15 to 18 ft range through tonight with low potential for an hour or two near 20 ft. Seas substantially subside Tue morning an is expected to be around 11 to 14 ft Tue afternoon.

The next storm system is on track to lift a warm front northeastward across the waters Wednesday. This will bring increasing southerly winds to the waters particularly off the south Washington and north Oregon coastline. Winds appear likely to end up Small Craft Advisory criteria with gusts of 25 to 30 kt possible Wednesday into Wednesday night, particularly areas farther north. But 18Z NAM model shows potential for gale gusts on Wednesday for the northern zones, but other models are not in alignment with this solution so will wait before making significant changes to forecast.

High pressure will then shift over the waters late Thursday and continue into next weekend across the waters. This should result in winds largely remaining 20 kt or less. Seas look to remain somewhat elevated though as a westerly swell around 10 ft pushes across the waters Thursday into Friday. Seas then look to drop more solidly into the single digits over the weekend. /mh /Neuman

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . None. PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Columbia River Bar.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 27 mi47 min 56°F1012.7 hPa
SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR 38 mi47 min S 5.1 G 11 54°F 55°F1014.2 hPa
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 39 mi35 min S 11 G 14 54°F
46097 41 mi165 min SSW 12 56°F 55°F1012.6 hPa
46050 - STONEWALL BANKS - 20NM West of Newport, OR 46 mi35 min SSW 14 G 18 56°F1013 hPa

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tillamook, Tillamook Airport, OR19 mi60 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy54°F50°F88%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTMK

Wind History from TMK (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmW7W6W4SW6SW9S3S4

Tide / Current Tables for Nestucca Bay entrance, Oregon
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Nestucca Bay entrance
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Tue -- 12:34 AM PDT     1.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:10 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:26 AM PDT     5.17 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:04 PM PDT     3.60 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:59 PM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:42 PM PDT     6.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:58 PM PDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 07:00 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:22 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.11.52.33.34.24.85.15.14.84.23.83.63.84.255.76.26.365.44.53.52.5

Tide / Current Tables for Taft, Siletz Bay, Oregon
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Taft
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Tue -- 12:35 AM PDT     0.83 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:10 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:19 AM PDT     4.42 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:05 PM PDT     2.94 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:58 PM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:35 PM PDT     5.41 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:58 PM PDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 07:01 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:23 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.91.322.83.64.24.44.343.53.12.93.13.54.24.95.35.45.14.63.82.92.1

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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