Sunrise 6:13 AM   Sunset 8:54 PM Moonrise 4:05 AM   Moonset 5:04 PM

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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 310 Am Edt Sun May 5 2024
Today - Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots becoming west in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy early in the morning then clearing. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday - Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday night - East wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 050705 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 305 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy frost possible tonight, especially inland areas.

- Thunderstorm potential Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Cooler late week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Upper-level trough axis is in the process of crossing northern Michigan this morning. Attendant surface cold front tied to low pressure near James Bay following suit...working its way across the eastern third of the forecast area. Both upper level wave and surface reflection expected to quickly race east early this morning with slowly rising heights aloft and surface high pressure becoming the rule through tonight.

Forecast Details:

Any lingering pre-dawn showers and morning low clouds expected to give way to plentiful afternoon sunshine across northern Michigan. Cooler temperatures on the heels of northwest winds when compared to yesterday -- topping out in the 50s far north and through the 60s across much of northern lower MI.

High pressure centers squarely overhead tonight, which should yield ideal radiational cooling conditions with clear skies and winds becoming calm. Potential continues to increase for a 30+ degree diurnal temp swing with at least patchy frost development, especially away from the immediate lakeshores. While probabilistic guidance suggests chances are fairly low, raw statistical guidance that'd typically handle these clear/calm nights well suggests localized temps falling into the upper 20s in the typical icebox locales. Certainly something that'll be monitored today for potential frost advisory consideration.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Trough axis and attendant surface cold front swinging through the Upper Great Lakes early this morning...with ridging building across the northern/central Plains...as anomalous troughing (-3 standard deviations from the mean) digs into the West Coast. Surface high over the central US...with cold front stretching along the perimeter from the Upper Great Lakes down through the Mid MS Valley into TX/OK, where best convection continues amid deeper moisture and weaker stability. Aforementioned anomalous troughing resulting in a very dynamic system over the Intermountain West, which will be the item of note for the first half of the week.

Ridging builds into the area tonight...and expecting resultant surface high to only slowly meander out of the region Monday into Monday night, leading to a dry and pleasant day, with overall light winds. As the western system plows its way into the central US...will look for a warm front to slip northward into the Upper Great Lakes through the day Tuesday. Current expectations have this front largely stalling out somewhere over Michigan...most likely over northern/central Lower...with an attendant cold front likely to swing across southern Lower Tuesday night. As primary upper low retrogrades across the Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday, will look for col region to set up over the Upper Midwest...with annoyingly dreary conditions possible for midweek.
Eventually...looks like the broader trough begins to eject eastward across the region, save for a piece of cutoff energy over the SW US...with another surface wave slipping through the Ohio Valley Thursday. Signals then point toward longwave troughing settling into the eastern CONUS for the latter portion of the week, and perhaps beyond...though exact details are still a bit unclear, depending on how broad and where the trough axis ends up setting up, though the bottom line is that there is potential for a cooling trend in the region going into next weekend and beyond (which, from an agriculture weather standpoint, is not good).

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Tstorm potential Tuesday into Wednesday...Think the drier conditions expected Monday will be enhanced as southeasterly flow ramps up ahead of the warm front Tuesday morning, which should (in theory)
slow precip onset as it moves in from southwest to northeast ahead of the warm front Tuesday. However, it does appear that things will moisten up fairly quickly once it gets going, so the latter half of the day Tuesday will likely be on the dreary side...though some guidance is even slower yet with bringing the rain in Tuesday afternoon/evening. Not sure how far into the warm sector we will get
as guidance is still struggling with this attm
and if we do remain north of the warm sector, it's possible temps may need to be lowered for Tuesday.

As mentioned last night, better parameters for severe weather are favored across southern Lower and points south...where better shear is expected to overlap with greater instability in the warm sector ahead of a cold front that should swing through Tuesday night. (Not sure that the cold front will make it up into our region.) We do have a shot at some elevated instability, though, which should keep the thunder threat in the forecast, as well as perhaps sneak in some small threat of at least small hail? Will have to monitor going forward...but noting the strong inversion in soundings, think that hail would be the primary threat if anything were to strengthen.
Otherwise...with better pwats ramping up to around an inch or better through the day...and a bit of a pivot point over northern Lower/the Straits...think there is some chance we could see some decent rainfall, though forcing does seem to get a bit nebulous as the boundary washes out over us...and we get a bit col-y. (Depending on exactly where that col region focuses, it's also possible it could aid in a deformation band...but we'll see...) Otherwise, with the weak boundary lingering into Wednesday morning...along with boundary layer moisture...will look for dreary conditions to hang on into midweek.

Cooler late week...signals point toward troughing trying to settle into the Upper Great Lakes/eastern CONUS toward the weekend and beyond. For now, not going too aggressive on the cold idea in the forecast, but do have highs and lows running near normal, or perhaps slightly below. Noting that lows in particular are generally in the mid to upper 30s to around 40 by this time of year, and considering where plants are at even up here in the interior...think we will need to keep an eye out for additional frost concerns going into mid- month, especially depending on exactly how the pattern sets up. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
Band of MVFR to IFR producing low clouds and showers will continue to swing across the taf sites early this morning.
Expect conditions to quickly improve to VFR as we head later into this morning and early afternoon. Mainly clear skies expected into this evening. Post cold front northwest winds will become a touch gusty today.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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