Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Glastonbury, MT
April 29, 2024 3:54 PM MDT (21:54 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:11 AM Sunset 8:30 PM Moonrise 1:00 AM Moonset 8:59 AM |
Area Discussion for - Billings, MT
(hide/show) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS65 KBYZ 292104 AFDBYZ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 304 PM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024
DISCUSSION
Rest of Today through Wednesday Night...
Widely scattered rain showers with a few rumbles of thunder are popping up across the region this afternoon ahead of the approaching Pacific cold front. Luckily, this activity is expected to remain weaker due to the minimal instability and shear to work with. The main threat with this activity will be localized stronger winds (gusts up to 45 mph) with inverted-V soundings in place and lightning. By late this evening into tonight, the Pacific front is expected to move through the region, ending the remaining precipitation as descent takes over.
The large scale descent behind the front will allow for well- mixed winds to persist tonight through Tuesday with 25-45 mph wind gusts expected, strongest over the western foothills near Harlowton. Fortunately, 700 mb winds remaining 35 kts or less will limit the extent of the strongest winds across the region. With this wind, we will also see drier conditions around and east of Billings Tuesday with minimum RHs in the 15-25% range. However, we are not looking at any major fire weather concerns as the green- up is underway. While the area mentioned above looks to remain dry Tuesday, chances of precipitation will increase over the mountains and foothills Tuesday afternoon as an addition shortwave moves through the broad cyclonic flow.
Wednesday through Wednesday night will see increased chances of precipitation across the region once again as a more robust shortwave moves through (20-70% chance, highest over the western mountains and foothills and lowest over eastern MT). Instability looks to remain on the weaker side though, so chances for thunder Wednesday remain low to zero.
As far as precipitation type goes, look for rain below about 7,500 feet today. Snow levels will drop quickly behind the front tonight allowing snow, or a rain and snow mix, down to 4000-5000 feet for Tuesday and Wednesday. Precipitation amounts will remain lighter as well, with a good chance (60-90%) for LESS than 0.25 inches of liquid precipitation east of Billings today through Wednesday. West of Billings, where precipitation chances are higher, there is a good chance (60-95% chance) to see MORE than 0.25 inches of liquid precipitation today through Wednesday.
Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be cooler, with highs generally in the 50s and lows in the 30s. Arends
Thursday through Monday...
Active weather pattern will affect the Northern Rockies during this period with many periods of showers.
Thursday through Friday, an upper low located over northeast MT into south central Canada will give cyclonic, unsettled, and unstable flow over our area. Several upper air disturbances will move through the flow and help to produce isolated to scattered showers. The probability of precipitation (PoP) on Thursday will range from about 30 to 70%, with the greatest PoP values in the mountains. Though these PoP values are appreciable, precipitation amounts generally will be light, as the available moisture (precipitable water values) will be below normal.
PoP values drop a bit Thursday night as a brief period of weak shortwave ridging moves in, especially over southeast MT. South central MT and north central WY have a 20-40% chance of showers.
On Friday a shortwave trough looks to cross the area, increasing the chance of light precipitation again. PoP values on Friday reach 20-70%, greatest in the mountains. Snow levels look to drop to about 4500 feet Friday morning, so foothill locations such as Red Lodge could receive a small amount, less than one inch, of snowfall.
Otherwise, mountain snowfall Thursday into Friday looks to arrive at a slow pace, around 1 to 3 inches per 12 hour period.
Friday night into Saturday, much of the area should be dry as a shortwave ridge moves over the area.
Saturday night into Monday, models generally agree on an upper air shortwave trough/low moving east/northeastward over the area. This system should bring additional rounds of showers to the area. This system looks to have more moisture to work with, as low-level flow facilitates moist air flowing northward through the central Plains then westward into MT. In addition, models show precipitable water values that are near normal or above normal with this system. It's early for specific amounts, but to give an idea of the precipitation potential from this system, the NBM shows the chance of at least 0.25 inches of precipitation from Sunday to Monday night ranges from about 20% over southeast MT and the lower elevations of Sheridan County, WY to 30-40% over the foothills west and southwest of Billings, to 50-65% in the Crazy and Beartooth Mountains. Snow levels should be higher with this system, at mainly 7000 to 8000 feet, so snow should be confined to the mountains.
High temperatures will generally be in the 40s to 50s Thursday and Friday, then 50s-60s Saturday, 50s-70s Sunday, and 60s-70s Monday.
RMS
AVIATION
Scattered showers will affect southern MT-north central WY through 06z Tuesday then showers will largely diminish from west to east late tonight into Tuesday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into tonight (20% chance). VFR will prevail, though conditions can drop to MVFR in the heavier showers or thunderstorms. In addition, winds will be west/southwesterly and gusty over south central MT this afternoon as a surface low moves over that area. Then late this afternoon into the overnight hours, a cold front will cross the southern MT/north central WY area from west to east. Behind this front, winds will become west/northwesterly and gust to 30 kt, though a brief period of gusts to 40 kt can also occur. Western foothill locations could experience wind gusts to 40 kt for a greater portion of the night. Mountains will be obscured. RMS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 038/055 034/055 037/053 035/053 034/064 041/067 043/071 42/R 24/O 46/W 35/W 21/B 12/W 33/W LVM 030/049 027/048 033/052 031/050 030/061 037/062 039/065 74/S 45/O 45/W 35/W 11/B 24/W 34/W HDN 038/058 033/057 034/054 033/054 031/066 040/070 042/073 52/R 23/O 46/W 24/W 21/B 12/W 33/W MLS 041/057 035/056 035/051 032/051 032/062 040/070 044/073 41/N 01/B 24/W 12/W 21/B 11/B 22/W 4BQ 040/057 034/057 035/052 032/052 032/065 041/071 045/073 31/N 01/B 23/W 13/W 21/U 01/B 22/W BHK 039/057 031/056 031/049 029/049 030/059 037/068 039/069 33/R 01/B 25/W 22/W 22/W 11/B 23/W SHR 035/055 029/053 028/051 029/051 030/063 037/070 039/070 42/O 23/O 45/T 25/W 31/B 12/W 33/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None.
WY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 304 PM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024
DISCUSSION
Rest of Today through Wednesday Night...
Widely scattered rain showers with a few rumbles of thunder are popping up across the region this afternoon ahead of the approaching Pacific cold front. Luckily, this activity is expected to remain weaker due to the minimal instability and shear to work with. The main threat with this activity will be localized stronger winds (gusts up to 45 mph) with inverted-V soundings in place and lightning. By late this evening into tonight, the Pacific front is expected to move through the region, ending the remaining precipitation as descent takes over.
The large scale descent behind the front will allow for well- mixed winds to persist tonight through Tuesday with 25-45 mph wind gusts expected, strongest over the western foothills near Harlowton. Fortunately, 700 mb winds remaining 35 kts or less will limit the extent of the strongest winds across the region. With this wind, we will also see drier conditions around and east of Billings Tuesday with minimum RHs in the 15-25% range. However, we are not looking at any major fire weather concerns as the green- up is underway. While the area mentioned above looks to remain dry Tuesday, chances of precipitation will increase over the mountains and foothills Tuesday afternoon as an addition shortwave moves through the broad cyclonic flow.
Wednesday through Wednesday night will see increased chances of precipitation across the region once again as a more robust shortwave moves through (20-70% chance, highest over the western mountains and foothills and lowest over eastern MT). Instability looks to remain on the weaker side though, so chances for thunder Wednesday remain low to zero.
As far as precipitation type goes, look for rain below about 7,500 feet today. Snow levels will drop quickly behind the front tonight allowing snow, or a rain and snow mix, down to 4000-5000 feet for Tuesday and Wednesday. Precipitation amounts will remain lighter as well, with a good chance (60-90%) for LESS than 0.25 inches of liquid precipitation east of Billings today through Wednesday. West of Billings, where precipitation chances are higher, there is a good chance (60-95% chance) to see MORE than 0.25 inches of liquid precipitation today through Wednesday.
Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be cooler, with highs generally in the 50s and lows in the 30s. Arends
Thursday through Monday...
Active weather pattern will affect the Northern Rockies during this period with many periods of showers.
Thursday through Friday, an upper low located over northeast MT into south central Canada will give cyclonic, unsettled, and unstable flow over our area. Several upper air disturbances will move through the flow and help to produce isolated to scattered showers. The probability of precipitation (PoP) on Thursday will range from about 30 to 70%, with the greatest PoP values in the mountains. Though these PoP values are appreciable, precipitation amounts generally will be light, as the available moisture (precipitable water values) will be below normal.
PoP values drop a bit Thursday night as a brief period of weak shortwave ridging moves in, especially over southeast MT. South central MT and north central WY have a 20-40% chance of showers.
On Friday a shortwave trough looks to cross the area, increasing the chance of light precipitation again. PoP values on Friday reach 20-70%, greatest in the mountains. Snow levels look to drop to about 4500 feet Friday morning, so foothill locations such as Red Lodge could receive a small amount, less than one inch, of snowfall.
Otherwise, mountain snowfall Thursday into Friday looks to arrive at a slow pace, around 1 to 3 inches per 12 hour period.
Friday night into Saturday, much of the area should be dry as a shortwave ridge moves over the area.
Saturday night into Monday, models generally agree on an upper air shortwave trough/low moving east/northeastward over the area. This system should bring additional rounds of showers to the area. This system looks to have more moisture to work with, as low-level flow facilitates moist air flowing northward through the central Plains then westward into MT. In addition, models show precipitable water values that are near normal or above normal with this system. It's early for specific amounts, but to give an idea of the precipitation potential from this system, the NBM shows the chance of at least 0.25 inches of precipitation from Sunday to Monday night ranges from about 20% over southeast MT and the lower elevations of Sheridan County, WY to 30-40% over the foothills west and southwest of Billings, to 50-65% in the Crazy and Beartooth Mountains. Snow levels should be higher with this system, at mainly 7000 to 8000 feet, so snow should be confined to the mountains.
High temperatures will generally be in the 40s to 50s Thursday and Friday, then 50s-60s Saturday, 50s-70s Sunday, and 60s-70s Monday.
RMS
AVIATION
Scattered showers will affect southern MT-north central WY through 06z Tuesday then showers will largely diminish from west to east late tonight into Tuesday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into tonight (20% chance). VFR will prevail, though conditions can drop to MVFR in the heavier showers or thunderstorms. In addition, winds will be west/southwesterly and gusty over south central MT this afternoon as a surface low moves over that area. Then late this afternoon into the overnight hours, a cold front will cross the southern MT/north central WY area from west to east. Behind this front, winds will become west/northwesterly and gust to 30 kt, though a brief period of gusts to 40 kt can also occur. Western foothill locations could experience wind gusts to 40 kt for a greater portion of the night. Mountains will be obscured. RMS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 038/055 034/055 037/053 035/053 034/064 041/067 043/071 42/R 24/O 46/W 35/W 21/B 12/W 33/W LVM 030/049 027/048 033/052 031/050 030/061 037/062 039/065 74/S 45/O 45/W 35/W 11/B 24/W 34/W HDN 038/058 033/057 034/054 033/054 031/066 040/070 042/073 52/R 23/O 46/W 24/W 21/B 12/W 33/W MLS 041/057 035/056 035/051 032/051 032/062 040/070 044/073 41/N 01/B 24/W 12/W 21/B 11/B 22/W 4BQ 040/057 034/057 035/052 032/052 032/065 041/071 045/073 31/N 01/B 23/W 13/W 21/U 01/B 22/W BHK 039/057 031/056 031/049 029/049 030/059 037/068 039/069 33/R 01/B 25/W 22/W 22/W 11/B 23/W SHR 035/055 029/053 028/051 029/051 030/063 037/070 039/070 42/O 23/O 45/T 25/W 31/B 12/W 33/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None.
WY...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
Billings, MT,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE