Sunday, January16, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Horton Bay, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 8:14AMSunset 5:19PM Sunday January 16, 2022 5:06 AM EST (10:06 UTC) Moonrise 4:00PMMoonset 7:41AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 340 Am Est Sun Jan 16 2022
.small craft advisory in effect from 8 am est this morning through this evening...
Today..South wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Slight chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the morning.
Tonight..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Slight chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Monday..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Monday night..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots. Chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:202201161645;;443127 FZUS53 KAPX 160840 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 340 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ342-161645-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Horton Bay, MI
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location: 45.31, -85     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 160837 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 337 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 335 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal. Sub-advisory snow accumulations across parts of eastern upper and northwest lower.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Primary features of note across NOAM early this morning revolve around closed upper-level low pressure and attendant strengthening surface reflection across the deep south . set to trek northeastward across the eastern seaboard today into tonight. Meanwhile, shortwave troughing is evident across the northern plains into south-central Canada, which is expected to dig across the mid-MS Valley/western Great Lakes this afternoon/ evening . eventually wrapping into the aforementioned system across the Northeast states late tonight into Monday. This northern wave will aid in continuing to push overhead sfc high pressure rapidly to the east while bringing increased light snow chances to parts of northern Michigan late in the day/tonight.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Mainly light snow chances today through tonight across parts of northern Michigan.

Expansive surface high pressure remains in place early this morning from the Northeast back through the western Great Lakes. Northern Michigan remains well removed from any synoptically driven precip (well to our south and northwest). However, overnight flow veering out of the south has resulted in an increased lake response across northern Lake Michigan into eastern upper. Expecting this trend to largely continue this morning with lake induced clouds/snow showers impacting portions of western/central Mackinac and western Chippewa counties, along with Beaver Island. Meanwhile, aforementioned mid- level shortwave troughing continues to approach from the northwest, initially resulting in increased mid-high cloud across western areas early this morning and across the remainder of the forecast area through the midday hours.

This wave continues its eastward progress this afternoon and evening with the trough axis and weak/moisture-starved cold front crossing the forecast area overnight. Latest trends support slow top-down saturation ahead of these features with light synoptic snow developing across eastern upper and far northwest lower by early evening, gradually progressing eastward through the early overnight before the aforementioned cold front outruns synoptic support aloft. This is expected to ultimately result in precip turning more scattered in nature by 03-06z or so, followed by winds veering northwesterly by late tonight into Monday morning setting up a weak lake response across the more typical snow belts of northwest lower/eastern upper very late tonight, despite increasingly dry mid- upper levels above a shallow ~4-5 kft inversion.

With respect to snow amounts today through tonight, anticipating localized 1-2" amounts across western/central Mackinac County and Beaver Island where snow showers are expected to be most numerous today into this evening. Elsewhere across eastern upper, generally an inch or less. Perhaps some localized amounts near one inch along the immediate northwest lower this evening . tapering to less than an inch as you head inland. Little to no accumulation expected across the majority of northeast lower.

Temps today generally 5-15 degrees warmer than Saturday . ranging from the upper-teens to the mid-20s area-wide. Chilly lows again tonight in the upper single digits through the teens as low-level thermal troughing rotates across northern MI.

SHORT TERM. (Monday through Tuesday) Issued at 335 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

. Light Lake effect Monday Clipper system Tuesday.

High Impact Weather Potential . Moderate amounts of snow look increasing likely for Tuesday/Tuesday night.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast and Possible Impacts .

Monday, The system that currently is moving through the US Southeast will move up the East Coast Monday will have the bulk of the energy focused away from the Upper Great Lakes on Monday. With the storm system centered in C PA, this leaves us with a N to NNW flow in E upper and N lower. Lots of cold air moves into the forecast area, cooling the 850 mb temperatures and producing snow. with all of the cold air, we are beginning to run into the uncertainty common this time of year, ice on the Great Lakes. With the freezing degree days being quite large with the single digit to below zero temperatures over the last 48 hours, ice production has been in full swing. This is beginning to show limit the amount of snow from LES. There is currently 9/10 to 10/10 ice concentration from near ISQ to the Bridge, and as far south as Beaver Island. So while LES is likely to be in the area, the amounts look like they would be limited by the ice on the lake. This is somewhat noticed on the models, as the snow that the models produce are more likely to be south of Charlevoix, and more likely south of M-72. However, by Tuesday morning, dry air dominates the region and the 850 mb temperatures are warming to above -10c. With the ice production, the sea sfc temperatures have fallen over the last two weeks, and are now in the lower single digits. So to get a good delta T, we need colder 850 mb temperatures, which if you start getting too cold the flake size would limited. The ridge axis moves through the state, by 18z, and 3 out of the 4 models have snow moving back into the region. The GFS is slower with the snow still just getting into W Upper. However, the ECMWF/NAM/CMC all have the snow by Tuesday afternoon. However, by Tuesday night, the models have the region fully involved. The next uncertainty will be the track. The ECMWF and NAM have the sfc low moving through N Lake Superior, which would limit the snow in the lower peninsula. There would be more snow in N Lower if the GFS or CMC track came about. So for now will expect Moderate snow amounts (3-5"? 4-6"?) in E upper and light amounts in N lower, becoming minor near M-55.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 335 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

High Impact Weather Potential . Moderate Snow Wednesday, and then moderate LES Wednesday night through Thursday night.

Extended (Wednesday through Saturday) . Wednesday morning is the transition from synoptic to LES, and by 18z/Wed 850 mb temperatures are approaching -20C in N Lake Michigan. We then continue NW flow with synoptic moisture (RH>60%) over the region, and the 850 mb temperatures colder than -20c over the region through 00z/Fri. The models are in better agreement with the winds Wednesday night with the NNW wind occurring at different times. NNW typically puts the best snow somewhere near TVC or Kalkaska. The models have some differences, so will keep the forecast more general, but would expect some moderate bands, with it being heavy at times through 12z/Thu. Thursday, drier air and the winds backing to the NW or WNW occur. This would limit the fetch as was described by the ice production on the lakes. Especially, with Green Bay now iced up. so the expectation would be that there is minor to light snow as the system begins to wind down, but not stop. Friday, the Models start bringing the ridge axis through the region with differing timing from each. It looks like there is a brief, dry period just after the ridge moves through, and just before the next clipper starts to move into the region for the weekend. The GFS starts the clipper snow Friday night while the ECMWF and CMC wait until 12z/Sat. Saturday, The GFS has a decent snow that evolves into a good Lake effect event, while the ECMWF has lighter snow amounts, and a shorter lighter lake effect event.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1142 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

VFR conditions through today with just a slowly lowering cloud deck. MVFR cigs spread in this evening from the west, likely waiting until after this taf period to reach KAPN. Winds become south today before going light again tonight.

MARINE. Issued at 335 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

Gusty south-southwest winds anticipated today, especially across Lake Michigan and Superior where previously hoisted small craft advisories will continue. Winds diminish this evening before veering out of the northwest late tonight. Northwest winds continue Monday, coinciding with the next chance for additional advisories across northern Michigan's nearshore waters.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 8 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 8 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ321.

NEAR TERM . MG SHORT TERM . JL LONG TERM . JL AVIATION . mb MARINE . MG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 30 mi86 min SSW 7G14 11°F 1023 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 35 mi48 min S 8.9G11 6°F 33°F1019.7 hPa3°F
WSLM4 37 mi36 min S 16 16°F 1019.7 hPa13°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Last 24 hrNE15
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N4
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NE10
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI9 mi71 minWSW 410.00 miFair6°F2°F86%1021.7 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI14 mi71 minSSE 510.00 miFair6°F1°F80%1021.7 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI21 mi72 minN 010.00 miFair-13°F-17°F82%1024.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMGN

Wind History from MGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hrN5NE5N300E3E8E5E4E5E4E5E5E4E3E5E40E300000
1 day agoE8NE8NE7NE10
G16
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NE12E10E8NE8NE8NE9NE9NE6NE8NE6NE3NE5NE5NE5N5N6
2 days ago0E30E4E4NE4000SW4SW5SW7NW3NW5N10
G17
N12
G18
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G14
N6N5N3NE7NE6NE6NE10

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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