Monday, October18, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Charlevoix, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:58AMSunset 6:46PM Monday October 18, 2021 3:26 PM EDT (19:26 UTC) Moonrise 5:28PMMoonset 4:41AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 1103 Am Edt Mon Oct 18 2021
Today..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:202110182315;;882260 FZUS53 KAPX 181503 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1103 AM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ342-182315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Charlevoix, MI
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location: 45.31, -85.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 181045 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 645 AM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 337 AM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021

. Sunny and mild today . cool and clear tonight .

High Impact Weather Potential . None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast . Large area of strong high pressure is centered over much of the eastern half of the US early this morning. Low level ridge axis remains just upstream of Michigan attm. Skies are clear across the entire Western Great Lakes region and low level winds continue to diminish . allowing temps to fall into the mid 30s to lower 40s early this morning.

Low level ridge axis will slide over Michigan today and then shift just SE of our state tonight. Strong subsidence and dry air thru the column will result in a beautifully sunny and relatively mild October day across our Northwoods . followed by a clear . cool and quiet night. High temps this afternoon will warm mainly into the low to mid 60s . with overnight lows cooling into the 40s tonight.

SHORT TERM. (Tuesday through Wednesday) Issued at 337 AM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal attm .

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

For the start of the short term period Tuesday . will look for ridging to still hold on across the Great Lakes/Midwest, between troughing to our east, centered near Maine, and troughing across the Intermountain West Meanwhile. flow will be a bit split over that Intermountain West troughing . as ridging develops across the international border to its north . with anomalous troughing just off the West Coast . and another trough to our north in Manitoba. Will look for this trough over Manitoba to sink southward through the period . as troughing across the Intermountain West heads eastward into the central Plains through the remainder of the period. This will sufficiently put an end to our beautiful fall weather, at least, for the rest of the period, and likely the rest of the week.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Rain chances later Wednesday into Wednesday night .

Mid-level dry air and sufficient subsidence under the ridge Tuesday will allow for one more day of beautiful weather across the Great Lakes. It may be a little gusty/breezy at times, though, given a decent pressure gradient between surface high pressure to our south . and the approaching high pressure across the Canadian prairies, with a weak, high-pressure-bridged cold front in between. With the trough to our north slowly sinking south through the period . will look for this boundary to sink south into the area Tuesday night, though with minimal fanfare aside from a wind shift. As the shortwave trough approaches from the Plains Wednesday, this lingering boundary will serve as the track along which the surface reflection will ride . and will keep the moisture associated with this system focused across Northern Michigan going into the rest of the period Will have to keep an eye on this. as guidance has been shifting back and forth a little bit on just how far south this boundary is able to get. This could impact the evolution of our system, at least by changing the focal point of the deeper moisture and better forcing, and potentially the storm track as well. Though the exact storm track/boundary positions haven't been set in stone quite yet . it does appear that rain should take place across the CWA Wednesday into Thursday . perhaps starting as early as midday Wednesday.

Southwesterly flow ahead of the Plains system will allow for an anomalously moist airmass to again advect into the Great Lakes region . as model guidance suggests pwats could ramp up into the 0.8- 1.2" range (high end of climo). In combination with decent dynamics along both the lingering boundary . and the surface reflection of that shortwave aloft approaching from the Plains . there should be decent upward motion to support precipitation development. (Jet max to our north and east should also support some broad ascent over the region, though there is some uncertainty in the strength and exact position of this feature.)

Meanwhile, as heights fall ahead of the approaching trough . will look for temperatures aloft to fall as well . which should help decrease stability over the region, at least enough to help get precipitation going, though deep convection is not anticipated given a lack of substantial instability. Though we should warm and moisten the boundary layer to some extent ahead of the system . it may not be enough to support much in the way of thunder . though I suppose with potential for a couple hundred joules of MUCape, a rumble or two couldn't be entirely ruled out Wednesday and beyond . especially with potential for cooler mid/upper levels to support ice in the cloud (and subsequently, potential for electrification in the cloud).

LONG TERM. (Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 337 AM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal attm .

As we go into Thursday . the system will continue to move through the region . with the Plains shortwave ultimately attempting to get absorbed by the troughing to our north, allowing for cold advection into the region and a deepening of troughing across the region. This will bring us back down to more seasonable levels, temperature-wise, if not even slightly below normals perhaps . ? We'll see . as there is a fair bit of uncertainty in the forecast beyond Thursday/Friday regarding a couple niblets of energy dropping through the flow. Even so . given potential for 850mb temperatures to fall below zero by the start of the weekend, and lake surface temperatures currently in the low 60s (though likely to fall to some extent as gusty winds with this system stir up the waters from below) . would look for some over-lake instability to develop at times . supporting potential for lake effect showers to occur. Where temperatures end up cold enough at night (most likely over the higher terrain inland) . would not be surprised if we started to see the "S"- word . snow . start to mix in with what rain showers develop Attm. elected to not boost pops much for the remainder of the week, till we start to get a slightly better handle on the weekend's setup . though latest guidance just coming in as of early this morning suggests there may be a little better agreement coming down the pike . ? We'll see.

Additionally . with temperatures falling off this weekend to more seasonable levels (normal lows for this time of year are generally in the mid-30s, slightly cooler for Pellston) . the first really widespread frosts (potentially freezes) of this fall season are possible. We will not be issuing any frost/freeze headlines, as the growing season has effectively ended across our CWA . but it might not be a bad idea to remind people to take the appropriate precautions anyway, if they haven't done this yet (wait, it's actually mid-October??? It's felt like a really long September . ). The timing of the warmer weather early this week will be prime for getting those last-minute cold-weather preparations done, too (i.e., drain hoses, prep sprinkler systems for winter . remember to cover or bring in any flowers/lingering produce you want to save, etc).

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) Issued at 645 AM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021

Strong high pressure and dry air thru the column will maintain solid VFR conditions at all Northern Lower Michigan TAF sites thru Tuesday morning. Surface winds will remain from the W/NW AOB 10 kts.

MARINE. Issued at 337 AM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria thru the early part of this work week as high pressure remains in control. Dry wx is expected thru Tuesday night . with our next chance of precip developing on Wednesday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . MR SHORT TERM . FEF LONG TERM . FEF AVIATION . MR MARINE . MR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 17 mi47 min W 4.1G7 64°F 1019 hPa
WSLM4 37 mi57 min WSW 8.9 55°F 56°F1018.5 hPa39°F
45194 42 mi57 min 57°F 61°F1 ft
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 43 mi57 min WNW 11G15 57°F 60°F1016.9 hPa41°F
45175 44 mi32 min 12G14 60°F1 ft

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI1 mi32 minW 710.00 miFair61°F42°F50%1018.6 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI20 mi32 minW 610.00 miFair59°F43°F54%1018.3 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI22 mi32 minW 410.00 miFair63°F43°F48%1018.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCVX

Wind History from CVX (wind in knots)
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NW7N6NW6N4NW3000E300NW3NW8SW7W8
1 day agoW16
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2 days agoW7W3W6W7W4SW3SW3SW4SW4SW3S30E40NW14
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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